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  • #6,481
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:00am Nov 27, 2008 7:00am
Quoting swap
Me too

One word though, have you marked out any level to add on retrace? I'm thinking 5380, but I'm not good at identifying levels to add positions on such short term retracements,especially when the recent past is so congested like the pound is now.
swap,
1.5395 with me and it is 61.8 fibo for yesterday low to the high the day before.
This is one of those days...
waiting fro my American friends to finish that turkey off and get back in the game
  • #6,482
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:02am Nov 27, 2008 7:02am
Quoting swap
Me too

One word though, have you marked out any level to add on retrace? I'm thinking 5380, but I'm not good at identifying levels to add positions on such short term retracements,especially when the recent past is so congested like the pound is now.
Hey Swap,

As for adding positions, it's not something I want to just jump into. Personally, I am being patient and waiting for the market to meet the TL at S&R again to add another running long entry.

I am looking more for 5356 and 5306... depending on how slow the market moves, which ever one it meets by the time it reaches the TL.
On the recent swing on the 1 hour Time frame the low at 1.5174 to the highest point is a 618 fib retrace at the 1.5306 (we can call it a double zero since it's in that 1.5300 area where the 618 actually lines up)
  • #6,483
  • Edited Nov 28, 2008 7:11am Nov 27, 2008 7:30am | Edited Nov 28, 2008 7:11am
Guess not many regulars about today..
but as always good stuff being exchanged..
So since theres not many here to distract...heres something a little off NBT focus..BRV forgive me..
...a little thanksgiving Present***.....A nice little 80/100 pip range trade..on an obscure cross..Indys are Envelopes 12 simple Close 0.6 & 0.8.. The chart should tell you all you need to know...(yellow dots are bar closes)..
Like AUDCAD, this cross is in consolidation since early Nov..Dont know how long it will last..so be careful..but meanwhile enjoy..LoL

PS Ady.. about "..finishing the Turkey".. you talking about USD?..LoL

*** Edit - 28th November 14.02
Hope you took the buy...at 16.00 27 Nov - Short 0.6842 (close 15.00 bar)..TP 14.00 28 Nov inner envelope for net 60 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,484
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:57am Nov 27, 2008 7:57am
Quoting ady27
swap,
1.5395 with me and it is 61.8 fibo for yesterday low to the high the day before.
This is one of those days...
waiting fro my American friends to finish that turkey off and get back in the game
could be anywhere
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  • #6,485
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:01am Nov 27, 2008 8:01am
Quoting TrendSetter
Hey Swap,

As for adding positions, it's not something I want to just jump into. Personally, I am being patient and waiting for the market to meet the TL at S&R again to add another running long entry.
Quote for truth. That'll explain my poor performance trying to get into quick retracement bit, I need to correct my mindset of having to take a position all the time, aka trading from boredom.

Also, if you're looking to hold on to that position for the longer term, will you be holding on to it even if it goes south to your target retracement and maybe only exit if that support fails there?

I would like to see another new high though, before it makes another major retracement.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #6,486
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:09am Nov 27, 2008 8:09am
Hey friends,

could this develop into a head-shoulders pattern on the hourly? I see 1.28 been "sloshed around" couple times (as good old BRV likes to say )
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #6,487
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:13am Nov 27, 2008 8:13am
Quoting swap
Quote for truth. That'll explain my poor performance trying to get into quick retracement bit, I need to correct my mindset of having to take a position all the time, aka trading from boredom.

Also, if you're looking to hold on to that position for the longer term, will you be holding on to it even if it goes south to your target retracement and maybe only exit if that support fails there?

I would like to see another new high though, before it makes another major retracement.
It's all about probability. I am not worried about the market going against me, that's what my stop is for. As you know, making an entry at a clear S&R level which converges with other elements such as a trendline or fib (imagine them all at once ). As many in this thread would say "NO BRAINER". Even if the market completely destroys my entry and proves to be heading south I would be out with a small loss and re-assess the market.
I know one thign form experience though... jumping the gun completely alters the perspective, seeing things that aren't there. The market can go up to give you that high you want, sure. Does that mean you jump on when it starts to rush up? nahh... wait... it has to come down sometime. Funny thing is that when it makes the high it comes down immediately to find support to keep pushing north and you would not like if your entry goes -50+

We don't know what the lowest low is.. but we do know that if we take the highest probable entry point there is nothing to fear... unless you don't use stop losses and just hope the market goes your way
  • #6,488
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:26am Nov 27, 2008 8:26am
Quoting spekitox
Hey friends,

could this develop into a head-shoulders pattern on the hourly? I see 1.28 been "sloshed around" couple times (as good old BRV likes to say )
Of course it could. It already has. But... will it fulfill?? That you have to wait and see I doubt it though.
  • #6,489
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:27am Nov 27, 2008 8:27am
Quoting spekitox
Hey friends,

could this develop into a head-shoulders pattern on the hourly? I see 1.28 been "sloshed around" couple times (as good old BRV likes to say )
Yeah I think there was some mention of a H&S forming in the EURUSD thread, 1.28 is also a good level to watch. If it's that obvious, that's good. My impression of sloshed around though is a level that's so used it loses its effectiveness, I'd think that pattern should give 1.28 some weight if it's so noticeable.

@Trendsetter, I'd like a higher high only because without it, it's looking like a double top 80 pips from the 50 fib of the late oct high. A higher high would confirm for me at least that the uptrend is still intact, and that retracement long trades will still be in play. That trendline is definitely a level to watch.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #6,490
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:32am Nov 27, 2008 8:32am
TrendSetter, I bet you're a mathematician. You seem to know a lot about probability and convergence, and you have exactly 3.14 posts per day...

Quoting TrendSetter
Of course it could. It already has. But... will it fulfill?? That you have to wait and see I doubt it though.
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forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #6,491
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:37am Nov 27, 2008 8:37am
Quoting spekitox
TrendSetter, I bet you're a mathematician. You seem to know a lot about probability and convergence, and you have exactly 3.14 posts per day...
hahahaaha... that's funny spekitox
But no, I am not a mathematician
  • #6,492
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:58am Nov 27, 2008 8:58am
Quoting ady27
swap,
1.5395 with me and it is 61.8 fibo for yesterday low to the high the day before.
This is one of those days...
waiting fro my American friends to finish that turkey off and get back in the game
I hope not !!

Just got an email from Investopedia Term Of The Day:

Turkey
What Does it Mean?
Slang for an investment that yields disappointing results or turns out worse than expected. Failed business deals, securities that realize significant losses and unsuccessful initial public offerings (IPOs) could all be called "turkeys".

Lol.... sorry
  • #6,493
  • Nov 27, 2008 11:01am Nov 27, 2008 11:01am
Quoting TrendSetter
could be anywhere
Did anyone take the 1.5343 for the 90 pip run?
  • #6,494
  • Edited 11:57am Nov 27, 2008 11:47am | Edited 11:57am
Guys, got a question.

How do I manage this neckline, the 1.2800 area?

Do I go to 5m tf and look for a few reversal candles? How do I know if the 1.2800 break (which might happen 'til tomorrow) isn't a false breakout?

Any hints?

Cheers!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Chasing Livermore...
  • #6,495
  • Nov 27, 2008 12:03pm Nov 27, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting osyrius
Guys, got a question.

How do I manage this neckline, the 1.2800 area?

Do I go to 5m tf and look for a few reversal candles? How do I know if the 1.2800 break (which might happen 'til tomorrow) isn't a false breakout?

Any hints?

Cheers!

Attachment
This is the thing to think about on this
IF... If you do want to go short on this trade, wouldn't you have wanted to be in at the tip of the right shoulder @ 1.2955 matching the left shoulder Resistance point?
I know I would have wanted to be in up there... that's a lot of cushion if anything should not go my way. Plus, getting in up there would give you 90 pips already.

We don't know if the market will actually fall or rally, if anyone knows this for a fact, I hope they share .
Based on your question you are looking to go short, so what I would do is treat it as a breakout point. Set an entry order a good distance from the 2800 level and if there are a lot of sell stops down there it should do a very nice run south.

Truth is, you never know. You just have to work with what the market gives you. If it breaks below the level then uses it as resistance, the short is looking good. If the level proves to hold its ground then you don't want to be going short.

Let's just say I went long at 2800, and the market completely tore through the level. Based on how the market behaves, I can almost count on it to come back to the level before really taking off south and get out of my position for a small loss or no loss at all.

Just be prepared... make your plan and stick to it. Your plan should include what you will do if things don't go your way. There really is nothing else you can do, it is what it is.

Best wishes
  • #6,496
  • Nov 27, 2008 10:52pm Nov 27, 2008 10:52pm
Quoting TrendSetter
could be anywhere
TS,

nice to see we are on "the same page".
Having the same lines on my chart.
Now lets see how this Friday will plays along
  • #6,497
  • Nov 28, 2008 5:02am Nov 28, 2008 5:02am
E/U
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  • #6,498
  • Nov 28, 2008 6:27am Nov 28, 2008 6:27am
I Just thought I'd drop in too see what was going on as I expected volumes to be too low today to have any impact on s/r.

However there have already been some interesting moves!
  • #6,499
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:07am Nov 28, 2008 7:07am
Quoting TrendSetter
Another one to take advantage of.
The charts people are posting up here are very useful as they are confirming a lot of the s/r work I have already done, which can only add confidence to my trades.

Thanks again TS.
  • #6,500
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:42am Nov 28, 2008 7:42am
Hi guys... I hope everyone is doing well. I wish I had been able to post sooner, for there have been some lovely bounces taking place. I hope everyone took the EUR/USD long at the 1.2700. Nice scalping trade (40 pips), and if the market decides to take a nice breather from that fall we can look for it to touch 1.2800 (key area). From '00' to '00'

Even if you didn't catch it... those levels are still good to play off of, so watch them.
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