No Brainer Trades | Page 324 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #6,461
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:18am Nov 27, 2008 3:18am
Quoting Jabiru
I was looking at the 15m chart and the bottom of the bucket of Tuesdays high looks like a good point to trade a retracement. I'd love to hear what others think.
In my opinion that's not a valid bucket. I'm not seeing a lot of price consolidation on it, especially if you look at the 5M chart, more of a head and shoulders reversal. If we break 1.5444 and 1.5470, I would look at 1.5532 as next resistance. This point has acted as support in the past.
  • #6,462
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:25am Nov 27, 2008 3:25am
Quoting libb
In my opinion that's not a valid bucket. I'm not seeing a lot of price consolidation on it, especially if you look at the 5M chart, more of a head and shoulders reversal. If we break 1.5444 and 1.5470, I would look at 1.5532 as next resistance. This point has acted as support in the past.
Yes, my initial 'in a perfect trade' target was 1.5532 (well, actually it was 1.5534 but what is 2 pips!) where I would expect some resistance.
  • #6,463
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:26am Nov 27, 2008 3:26am
Quoting Jabiru
I was looking at the 15m chart and the bottom of the bucket of Tuesdays high looks like a good point to trade a retracement. I'd love to hear what others think.
Jabiru, could you post a chart with the bucket you mention as I can't see it on my charts ?

Thanks
  • #6,464
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:30am Nov 27, 2008 3:30am
Thanks for your thoughts Libb, I'll go and check the bucket trade video again.
  • #6,465
  • Nov 27, 2008 3:52am Nov 27, 2008 3:52am
Hope you got in guys +50 pips so far !
  • #6,466
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:05am Nov 27, 2008 4:05am
Well spotted Willow. I didn't take it because in general breakouts give me the heebie jeebies, mainly because they (my levels) fake out more times before they breakout, which is why I'm drawn to trading reversals.

This is one area I know I could improve on, so anyone with b/out experience, let's hear it!
  • #6,467
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:08am Nov 27, 2008 4:08am
Quoting triphop
Well spotted Willow. I didn't take it because in general breakouts give me the heebie jeebies, mainly because they (my levels) fake out more times before they breakout, which is why I'm drawn to trading reversals.

This is one area I know I could improve on, so anyone with b/out experience, let's hear it!
I agree triphop. Breakouts aren't as easy for me. Fake breakouts (bull traps) and reversals are more likely than a real breakout. I like to go with the trend and get in when it retraces off a s/r.

I guess my 2 cents on breakouts is look for an area to be hit multiple times, with enough time inbetween to make sure everyone noticed and is on board.
  • #6,468
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:15am Nov 27, 2008 4:15am
Quoting triphop
Well spotted Willow. I didn't take it because in general breakouts give me the heebie jeebies, mainly because they (my levels) fake out more times before they breakout, which is why I'm drawn to trading reversals.

This is one area I know I could improve on, so anyone with b/out experience, let's hear it!
It came right back to the level - did you get in on the re-test ?
  • #6,469
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:16am Nov 27, 2008 4:16am
Quoting libb
I agree triphop. Breakouts aren't as easy for me. Fake breakouts (bull traps) and reversals are more likely than a real breakout. I like to go with the trend and get in when it retraces off a s/r.

I guess my 2 cents on breakouts is look for an area to be hit multiple times, with enough time inbetween to make sure everyone noticed and is on board.
I think this is crucial ... I mentioned 4 times in 24 hours it bounced so there was sure to be some orders sitting above

Just hoping it can take out 1.5480 area now for a proper move up
  • #6,470
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:18am Nov 27, 2008 4:18am
Hi Libb, me too - breakout reversals in effect seem a lot safer (GBP has just done exactly that - retracing using the breakout point as support - though I was too busy typing to catch it...)
I was reading FTI's thread (technical analysis fallacy) the other day - he was a trader for a lot of the large banks. They used to watch out for those levels and the orders building up, and sweep those zones on a regular basis, before throwing in large orders to reverse the price.
That's why these reversals seem safer (and certainly more profitable to me) but maybe it's just because I've not got the hang of them.
  • #6,471
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:34am Nov 27, 2008 4:34am
Hey guys.. have no fear, Sentiment is Super Heavy Strong on our side. The USD dollar is in major sell off, we will be seeing a rally for a good while. I have been holding since the bounce yesterday and will surely get in again. Great spot on the breakout Willowgal (BRV textbook ) Wish I was awake to have seen your post.
  • #6,472
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:37am Nov 27, 2008 4:37am
Quoting TrendSetter
Hey guys.. have no fear, Sentiment is Super Heavy Strong on our side. The USD dollar is in major sell off, we will be seeing a rally for a good while. I have been holding since the bounce yesterday and will surely get in again. Great spot on the breakout Willowgal (BRV textbook ) Wish I was awake to have seen your post.
Still think it will go up with no NY session today?
  • #6,473
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:42am Nov 27, 2008 4:42am
Quoting TrendSetter
Hey guys.. have no fear, Sentiment is Super Heavy Strong on our side. The USD dollar is in major sell off, we will be seeing a rally for a good while. I have been holding since the bounce yesterday and will surely get in again. Great spot on the breakout Willowgal (BRV textbook ) Wish I was awake to have seen your post.
Thanks TS. Oil looks like it is moving up which should help ? I am a complete newbie to fundamental analysis but is this what you would expect ?
  • #6,474
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:44am Nov 27, 2008 4:44am
Quoting libb
Still think it will go up with no NY session today?
Today will be a smooth trading day I believe... market already stacking bricks and obeying S&R to the pip. Plus, think about it... no NY session means no one to defend the beating of the dollar. I always have bloomberg TV on and they said the same last night. Also analysists expect Euro to see 1.3300 sometime soon. Soon of course being not sooo soon, these guys are long term people haha, but you get it. Sell Sell Sell the USD, so Buy Buy Buy the Euro and GBP.
  • #6,475
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:51am Nov 27, 2008 4:51am
TS, I'm in long since this am on EUR but you got me worried, if I'm in line with the analysts, it's usually a recipe for disaster. Those guys are nearly wrong enough to trade contrarian off them.
  • #6,476
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:57am Nov 27, 2008 4:57am
Quoting Willowgal
Thanks TS. Oil looks like it is moving up which should help ? I am a complete newbie to fundamental analysis but is this what you would expect ?
I am actually new to Fundamentals too. I have found it really does help a great deal. I honestly would not want to be in the dark about fundamental info again. It's not that difficult really... it's just getting the right information. Financial news is great for a overall view. Based on our intraday activity you can't just stick to one direction by following news, the market waves... but you should think of the BIGGER picture. Like... knowing the USD is going down hard, the smart thing would be to BUY.. NOT SELL pairs like GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Not that there arent a lot of sells to be made; always are, what goes up comes down (small TFs show that). On the Larger scale we are seeing a falling dollar, so if you manage to get a buy, I would suggest you get in twice, collect your goal amount on one of the entries and hold on to the next, just for kicks and see what happens, you might wake up one morning over 1000pips in profit, just for holding on to what is likely a long trend. You never know.
  • #6,477
  • Nov 27, 2008 5:11am Nov 27, 2008 5:11am
Quoting triphop
TS, I'm in long since this am on EUR but you got me worried, if I'm in line with the analysts, it's usually a recipe for disaster. Those guys are nearly wrong enough to trade contrarian off them.
It's hard to get used to trip.. I know. I have recently had to adjust my outlook on the market. But you just have to remember long term versus short term.

I would spend no more than 1 hour a day trading. Never needed to. I practiced and practice till that's all I needed. my pip goal was minimum 100 per day. My strategy got me 100 on average 30 minutes, I would just spend the other 30 scooping up whatever else there was. But, the thing with trading like that is it can also set you back if you take a loss, and spend the day trying to reach a quota. It was then I saw the true worth of holding a position. It doesn't seem faster or more profitable but it is actually, when you REALLY do the math.

Having a DAILY goal puts on pressure firstly, having the need to meet the quota makes that worse if a loss is to be made up. Result is that you spend a lot more time trading than necessary or planned.

Having a WEEKLY or MONTHLY goal, gives you some breathing room, no need to take every trade you see, but waiting for that setup which will pay out a large amount of pips, which might just cover your entire WEEK or MONTH goal base don what you would have collected per day. Now, why I say it takes less time is because when you get these moves, you really only need 5 minutes (not even that much). set your entry, your stop loss, your limit, and let it ride. That's it.... that doesn't take an hour (and doesn't have to be every day either).

At the end of it all you really only spend under 5 minutes executing a trade. Go play, go do whatever it is you do and let the market work.
  • #6,478
  • Nov 27, 2008 5:22am Nov 27, 2008 5:22am
I agree, and don't at the same time.

I'm a member of Jacko's group since November last year, and have been swing trading EURUSD for over a year. It's been successful, it's compounded profits, it's had it's shaky points (mainly the change of the long-term trend back in August) but I like it.

But I also see the value of shorter-term trades. Since finding BRV's thread, if nothing else, it's improved my longer-term perspective, being able to set better targets for the swing trades. Better still, the increased opportunities (and profits) of trades made from this method compound my account quicker.

So I hear you, and one thing I wouldn't disagree on - trade to live, not live to trade.
  • #6,479
  • Edited 6:03am Nov 27, 2008 5:52am | Edited 6:03am
Quoting triphop
Well spotted Willow. I didn't take it because in general breakouts give me the heebie jeebies, mainly because they (my levels) fake out more times before they breakout, which is why I'm drawn to trading reversals.

This is one area I know I could improve on, so anyone with b/out experience, let's hear it!
I have problems trading breakouts as well which got me thinking. Support and resistance are simply areas where orders are clustered. In this case, sells below and stops above. This level here at the GBPUSD must be one of the best candidate for breakouts thus far having been tested solidly 3 times to the pip! Should price inch above it and trigger the stops, I'd expect it to jump up. Then again there are breakouts which shoot through the roof and breakouts which falter.

What I'm thinking of doing is to push my stop loss to breakeven after it's 30 pips up or so to catch the rocket speed breakouts. The triggering of stops above the resistance will more often than not give me the room for that. Sure I may miss out on some trades but at least that's one breakout play I can catch in future.

I had my TP for this at 5535, shifted stop to 5445 and got stopped out. Shifting stop to breakeven would have been handy here.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #6,480
  • Nov 27, 2008 6:21am Nov 27, 2008 6:21am
Quoting TrendSetter
I have been holding since the bounce yesterday and will surely get in again.
Me too

One word though, have you marked out any level to add on retrace? I'm thinking 5380, but I'm not good at identifying levels to add positions on such short term retracements,especially when the recent past is so congested like the pound is now.
I need to put up stop losses.
4 traders viewing now