Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

Thanks for the tips Wellspring about taking profits in stages.

I agree with you about the sucker rally going on.
I actually just sent more cash into my account today to prepare for the short play.

price going down on the 4H 1.2970 now

when it was still around 1.3000 it hit 1.3025 twice before going down, so was thinking to go short at 1.3025 with SL @ 1.3085 for a quick trade.

might short now if it reaches 1.3000 again.....any other takers?

I've been looking at it at that level since yesterday but have not done anything yet.

Thinking about 1.3000 or 1.3050 for short if(when) it goes up there again. Looks like some pretty strong resistance at about 1.3080.

short 1 contract @ 1.2968 - SL 1.3030

we`ll see what happens

Good Luck!!

I know it is time to short, but I am chicken right now. There is so much big news coming out everyday that could make the market jump either way and I'm not smart enough to sort it out.

just my 2 c worth. even though the trend is down on the weekly and daily i feel the 4 hr momentum is still up. prob need to see price level out for awhile and see some lower highs and lows before i'd be jumping back on.

Hi I went short yesterday (my time) at 1.3000 for a quick 20 pips and am short again at 1.29000...I've tightened my stops to 30 pips and ts to 10 pip min movement (I trade with FXCM). True this isn't Jacko style per se but if pips want to come to me albeit smaller amounts I'll take 'em...can't wait for a proper setup though...I miss those 130 - 200 + pip runs....

phewwww, missed my SL by 3 pips

why he h...I didn't go short at 1.3050 is beyond me..wonder where my mind was at the time...me synapses are worrying me...

maybe waking up properly would help...LOL

then again...guess it wasn't all that bad...

There's always another day to place a trade and our number 1 priority is not to lose money. So definitely not that bad.

I was in the same boat as you thinking about the 1.3000 level for a short. However, I thought better of it given:

1. what seems to be lower volume than usual on my humble volume indicator (probably because of US Thanksgiving)

2. The amount of news that was due out that at a time of massive volatility anyway.

I do feel a little gutted I missed out on pips but I think that's just the twisted cruelty of hindsight and the greed that I try and keep in check.

Looks like we have some support around the 1.2800 area but I also see the formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the 4 hour EURUSD chart above this support - we have left shoulder and the head already. I have only moved to longer time frames trading FX over the last few months having been a scalper building up my bank. I don't think I'm experience enough as to how Thanksgiving effects the longer term trades - I took the day off from trading last Thanksgiving here in the UK.

I'm off to clear my head and get back on the path of being at one with the market lol

fb...true and in the end i don't really regret having made the decision - I'm in the bank every pip mode right now which induces me to be all that more conservative in my entries.

Regarding USD strength I've extrapolated this from an article I received from an investment group I'm a member of...

No other choice for a reserve currency exists. No matter how much other governments wish it were so.

The euro is frequently mentioned. But it's depreciating in value. And there's not enough liquidity to handle the demand. Plus, it's still a prepubescent, experimental currency, not one governments can invest in with 100% faith.

Moreover, with two-thirds of foreign reserves already in dollars, it would take more than eight years to replace the dollar as the currency of choice.

The dollar's not done the current rally has more legs (about another year based on the averages out of Bespoke).

Aside from no alternative world reserve currency, here are three more fundamentals in defense of the dollar:

Further Interest Rate Cuts
Foreign governments bought into the farce that was decoupling. As a result, they remained hawkish for way too long, keeping interest rates too high, at a time when they should have been cutting them to stimulate growth. And now they're scrambling to catch up. They must make growth their first priority. So further interest rates cuts are inevitable, narrowing the gap with U.S. interest rates. And before long, perhaps the middle of 2009, we could be raising rates while other countries are still lowering.

Continued Deleveraging
As Mark Astley, CEO of Millennium Global Investments, a U.K.-based currency manager notes, "there is a pyramid of leverage" in the financial markets that will take considerable time to unwind. The half-frozen credit markets are only slowing down the process. As they thaw out completely, expect hedge funds and foreign banks to keep buying up dollars.

Uncertainty Reigns
Despite a new president, uncertainty remains in the markets. Or as UniCredit wrote in a recent research note, "We do not expect global recession fears to wane considerably." And during times of fear and risk aversion, the dollar tends to outperform.

Bottom line, the current rally has plenty of room to run.

wonder where we will hit bottom....1:1?

still in my trade - price now 1.2884 and expect it to go down more.

if price goes back up to 1.2918, stalls and goes down to 1.2900, I`ll be in for another contract with SL @
1.2930

price went up to 1.2912, fell to 1.2881 and I sold a second contract @ 1.2900

SL for both @ 1.2930

hi yonnie,

when do you close your trades?

damn, spike went up to 1.2937 and I`m out of my trades @ 1.2931

my TP was 1.2450, but was not to be.

Hello all. I am mainly a day trader in most everything I trade. I have caught quite a few awesome trades shorting the euro for short periods of time. In hind sight I should have remained short since 1.56, but I, like many, don't feel like dealing with the overnight risk. Stupid, stupid me. Anyway, looking at the longer term MP of the euro, it is in a bracketed market, the edges being the low (1.23something) and the high (1.30something.)( I am on a different computer and am going by memory). When it's as big as this, you get immediate support and resistance and it will work its way up and down the bracket until it decides to break out of the top or the bottom of it. In the meantime you get a lot of chop. The range is like 900 pips or so. Taking a short trade with a 50 pip stop loss within this area will lead to a lot of battle scars if you are trading from the wrong timeframe. Be mindful of the timeframe you are trading. Taking a long term short from the 1.3 or 1.29 with a target inside or below the bracket is going to require a lot of luck, because you are going to need all the support below to lay down their arms and let you through. Don’t expect that to happen. My guess is that the path of least resistance is up at this moment, even though we are in a longer term down trend. There really isn’t too much resistance until we get to about 1.34 (again by memory) and lasts until about 1.37. It is a much smaller area than the area we are currently in, but by design, if not definition, a bear market remains a bear market because the slightest bit of resistance scares the support away. So, IMO, a longer term overnight type short should be entered at around 1.34 with enough room to let the position work. If that resistance holds, the support will fall apart and it will work it’s way down to the bottom of the current bracket attempting to breakout below at like 1.23. If we don’t get to 1.34, the shorting below the midway point of this bracket with small size could get you to the lower edge, and then add if we break out or wait until we breakout, dependant on your patience. If you are patient, the only thing you’ll miss out on are a lot of losses. Happy Thanksgiving!

always interested in other views of the market...............

shorting below the midway point of this bracket..........do you mean you would go short below 50% of the 1.23-1.34 range and why there?

This is an edited version of a message that I sent to the Jackson "turtle" group earlier today. I have been asked to place it on Forex Forum, especially in regard to point 7.


Happy Thanksgiving Day.

In this industry we have many reasons to give Thanks for everything that has been given to us.

Firstly, I give Thanks for finding this extraordinary business where there is incredible flexibility in establishing, running and financing the business.
Given the huge leverage in this business, anyone can enter the industry and establish a trade... and their subsequent business.
Also, while running the business, if I see an opportunity I can be involved within 30 seconds. More importantly, if I am in a trade and I feel that I have made a mmmmmistake I can be out of that transaction within 30 seconds. (try doing that with any other business!!)
Also, the leverage and compounding allows extraordinary growth and profits. In just three short years I managed to escalate from 2 standard contracts (with one borker) to very large numbers of contracts, in a normal trading transaction.

Secondly, I give Thanks for a market that trends so regularly that opportunities are around every corner. Even though I have missed an opportunity or two in the past, I can remain confident because I know that there are plenty more opportunities to come.

Thirdly, I give Thanks for the fact that I can conduct my business from anywhere in the world with just my laptop and an international cell phone.

Fourthly, I give Thanks for being able to “think out” the Anti-Hedge strategy which turned my initial losers into winners and escalated my win rate from high to very high levels

Fifthly, I give Thanks for having some excellent resources (in the form of books about earlier successful traders) which have been a beacon in those times when I have been sitting on the sidelines, wanting to rush in. Those resources have all emphasized the waiting as a precondition for becoming a winner.

Sixthly, I give Thanks to each of you for being part of this new tribe of traders that have decided to join with me in this lifelong business of trading. Also, some (most?) of you have also been more aggressive in your trading than me and I have been happy to read that many of you have made excellent profits. We have all embarked on a journey that, God willing, will allow us to have a simple yet profitable business for the rest of our lives. (For any of you who think that retirement is good, let me tell you something....playing golf every day is boring ...and the people who do play golf every day are even more boring!!!! I am old...and getting older...but I still get an adrenalin buzz from a successful trade.)

Seventhly, I give thanks for Forex Factory, without which I would never have met any of you. In my communications with each of you to date, you have ALL shown that you want to be serious and committed traders, and are willing to learn. Some of you will always be more aggressive in your willingness to take positions and some of you will be more safety-conscious. There is no right or wrong way, as long as your profits are maximized AND any losses are minimized. I think that a number of you are potentially better traders than me. If I can just help show you how I trade, I hope that many of you will use my experience and style and modify it to suit your own personalities. You can then go on to have as rewarding a time as I have had in this business. I. personally, am enjoying the group dynamics and hope that the group goes on for years as we all get to know each other and start to share our trading experiences in the near future.

Finally, I think everyone on the Forum should know that the Moderators here do a truly excellent job. Guys like Scott (smjones) and Merlin and the others all do it as a free service to all of us who post here.
This is easily the best forum for forex anywhere on the internet and it is primarily due to the efforts of these guys. I have seen another site where the chattering rabble and kids came in about two years ago and totally destroyed the credibility of the forum.
And even though the site brought in a new moderating team and have much bigger resources behind them, they are still just a shadow of what they were two years ago

It is good to see the efforts that Scott, Merlin and the rest of the team here put in to keep this the most credible forex forum on the internet.

Jacko,
Thank you for sharing your wisdom and insight.
Happy T-Day.