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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #2,081
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:07pm Mar 7, 2007 6:07pm
Quoting alcastro
Thanks pips.

Regarding the GBP/US trade: I jumped before time. If it is going to be short I have to wait after the 1st. red bar has formed completely, and jump on the 2nd one, with 1 hr confirmation (that is what Phillips said in his excellent pdf). I don't know why I am rushing this thing!!! Well....discipline...DISCIPLINE!!!! (I am still in the trade....but that is not an excuse)
I know its hard to wait. Haven't been in a trade for days, and I feel like that bear w/o paws watching the salmon (everyone collecting pips but me )....but I haven't gotten a good signal w/good r:r yet....so here I sit...

& we rush b/c we want the trade sooooo bad! (like we are addicts). & we FEAR missing out...

I think your short will be OK! Stops were run earlier! no need for them to go up for profit, they need to go down now and get out the new longs!
  • #2,082
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:10pm Mar 7, 2007 6:10pm
Hey guys, stepped out for a bit. Here is my trade and chart for EST.
Entry 1.9289
SL 1.9345
TP 1.9205
Attached Image
  • #2,083
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:11pm Mar 7, 2007 6:11pm
Al, My charts are still showing the short signal, but I'm gonna wait for the 9:00 EST 4 hr candle myself.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #2,084
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:20pm Mar 7, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
Hey guys, stepped out for a bit. Here is my trade and chart for EST.
Entry 1.9289
SL 1.9345
TP 1.9205
So weird how different our charts are. Mine doesn't even show a difference in the MACD for the last 3 bars (counting the one that is still open)...all are at -.0005.
  • #2,085
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:29pm Mar 7, 2007 6:29pm
Yesterday I went with the Head and Shoulders pattern on the EUR/USD. I entered at 1.3145 just past the 21EMA with the four hour MACD just crossing zero. I closed the trade at 1.3182 for a gain of 37 pips.

It may not be pretty but the H&S pattern is still in play. If the price dips below 1.3155 and the MACD signal supports the move I will go short with a first PT of 1.3100 and a second target of just above 1.3180 with a SL just above 1.3200. R:R is at 1. Of course the 8 and 21 EMAs are barriers to overcome. Just as with last night patience is the name of the game.
Attached Image
  • #2,086
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:29pm Mar 7, 2007 6:29pm
Quoting AJspeed
Al, My charts are still showing the short signal, but I'm gonna wait for the 9:00 EST 4 hr candle myself.

AJ
AJ, ur a wise man.
ithink the cable will go my way. But, regardless, it was a bad trade. I jumped too son.
  • #2,087
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:38pm Mar 7, 2007 6:38pm
Ah, my aussie may be coming down to finish that head and shoulder set up. OH happy days.


AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #2,088
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:52pm Mar 7, 2007 6:52pm
Guys and Gals, That signal for the EURO is coming I can feel it. Once the EURO gets below 3150 we should be close.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #2,089
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:00pm Mar 7, 2007 7:00pm
Ya know, the more I think about it all, the less time I'd like to spend looking at the 1hr charts. Maybe just the 1hr bar before the 4hr is formed. I was looking back at the 4hr EUR$ starting from Jan 2 of this year and it just looks so much more...fluid. With Tam's Zen like chart dynamics and Phill's MACD teachings...I think I'll spend more time there. That's just me.

A word about stops on the 4hr...

If the ma or high or low for the bar is say 60 pips away and the rules say to put your stop there, 60 pips is one hell of a stop. Buuuuuut, if the trade is setting up and it's screaming at you to enter, then just enter with a smaller lot size. If you trade a .5 lot at $5 a pip, that's a $300 stop. Probably way too much leverage use there on your account if your 'only' trading at a .5 lot. So, just trade a lower lot size, .2 or .1 so that stop value is only $120 or $60 if were talking about the Euro$. If nothing else, and your analysis is correct, then use this as a confidence booster when you can afford a $300 stop on your account. If the trade happens to end in a loss, better that loss to be only $120 or $60 vs the $300. You guys pickin' up what I'm puttin' down?

Oh yeah, I made back those 22 pips I lost on that last trade....+ 4 more. I poured the bag of potato chips out on to the counter and they told me what to do....
  • #2,090
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:02pm Mar 7, 2007 7:02pm
Quoting AJspeed
Guys and Gals, That signal for the EURO is coming I can feel it. Once the EURO gets below 3150 we should be close.

AJ
I will wait for MACD. As the master of this thread (the lion Phillip) said: wait for the market to come to you. So...will wait for MACD and for a close below 89 EMA.
  • #2,091
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:06pm Mar 7, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting alcastro
I will wait for MACD. As the master of this thread (the lion Phillip) said: wait for the market to come to you. So...will wait for MACD and for a close below 89 EMA.
Damn straight.

Two interest rate statements out tomorrow. Even if they come out as expected, there still could be some jitters.
  • #2,092
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:09pm Mar 7, 2007 7:09pm
This is what I do regarding stops. I always risk 3% of my equity in each trade. So if my equity is $5,000 i will risk $150.
So if my stop is at 30 pips I will be going for $150/30= $5 per pip. That is 5 minilots.

If my stop is at 50 pips I will be going for $150/50=$3 per pip. That is 3 minilots.

So I don't care how far away or close is my stop. I size my lot accordingly, risking my standard 3%. Hopefully I won't have 30 losses in a row!!!! Not with Phillip's system!!!
  • #2,093
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:12pm Mar 7, 2007 7:12pm
Quoting pips4uandme
I know its hard to wait. Haven't been in a trade for days, and I feel like that bear w/o paws watching the salmon (everyone collecting pips but me )....but I haven't gotten a good signal w/good r:r yet....so here I sit...

& we rush b/c we want the trade sooooo bad! (like we are addicts). & we FEAR missing out...

I think your short will be OK! Stops were run earlier! no need for them to go up for profit, they need to go down now and get out the new longs!
Hi pips4uandme, it sounds like you are talking to me, now that i think about it(i went short too alcastro, and now im 20 pip minus , oh wait now 18 minus maybe we can pull it out) Many pips to all
  • #2,094
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:17pm Mar 7, 2007 7:17pm
Quoting alcastro
This is what I do regarding stops. I always risk 3% of my equity in each trade. So if my equity is $5,000 i will risk $150.
So if my stop is at 30 pips I will be going for $150/30= $5 per pip. That is 5 minilots.

If my stop is at 50 pips I will be going for $150/50=$3 per pip. That is 3 minilots.

So I don't care how far away or close is my stop. I size my lot accordingly, risking my standard 3%. Hopefully I won't have 30 losses in a row!!!! Not with Phillip's system!!!

Dude!!!!!!
Attached Image
  • #2,095
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:22pm Mar 7, 2007 7:22pm
Quoting Palmer
Dude!!!!!!
Since I started applying that concept my stress level has gone down significantly.
  • #2,096
  • Edited 8:08pm Mar 7, 2007 7:56pm | Edited 8:08pm
I know everyone seems to be waiting to short the eur/usd.... but is anyone else keeping an open mind to the possibility to trend continuaton?

I have a trend line that it is sitting on top of, we are above the 89, and the ma's are pointing up. I know that the RT is forming, but as so many of us know, that can quickly change. We are close to the 89, so anything could happen really, and the 1.32 price level is the next level above, so it may not go too much further than that it TC. In anycase, just wanted to remind anyone of that who may be looking to get in early. I love to catch bounces off trendlines.... and this would be one if it TC's.

Also, with interest statements in a few hours... it may not do anything! Sorry for the non-convincing argument either way, but I need to be reminded that it can go the opposite of what I'm thinking and need to be ready for it if it does sometimes so I'm not caught off guard. Maybe I'm just talking to myself????\

Edit: Tamkras, does this count as a nested doll?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #2,097
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:32pm Mar 7, 2007 8:32pm
DireXiv:

I agree, price is right at the upper trendline trying to break through and we could just go higher. The 4hr MACD is what Phillip originally stated as the key. And, there are the 3 ma's all hitting that same candle. To me, that's indecision in the market. Interest rate statements on the horizon also. Things may get stuck here until after the news.

I'm done for this day.
  • #2,098
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:45pm Mar 7, 2007 8:45pm
Quoting pips4uandme
So weird how different our charts are. Mine doesn't even show a difference in the MACD for the last 3 bars (counting the one that is still open)...all are at -.0005.
Yeah, my chart changed and no longer has the down red bar, it is still just under the 0. I have to ride this one out, although I do have second thoughts. Free lesson for me on this one.
  • #2,099
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:47pm Mar 7, 2007 9:47pm
Quoting pips4uandme
I know its hard to wait. Haven't been in a trade for days, and I feel like that bear w/o paws watching the salmon (everyone collecting pips but me )....but I haven't gotten a good signal w/good r:r yet....so here I sit...

& we rush b/c we want the trade sooooo bad! (like we are addicts). & we FEAR missing out...

I think your short will be OK! Stops were run earlier! no need for them to go up for profit, they need to go down now and get out the new longs!

Hi Pips4u&me, could you xplain what you mean when "stops were run earlier" and how this works? Thanks for all your great help
  • #2,100
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:59pm Mar 7, 2007 9:59pm
guys,can i check what r the stoploss normally used for Eur/Usd(1 hr and 4hrs) and Gbp/Usd(1hr and 4hrs)? thanks....
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