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Do YOU think EA's work (POLL)

  • #41
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:40pm Mar 7, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
Fundamental announcements on unemployment figures, interest rate changes, CPI figures, inflation, GDP, etc use to cause huge swings in the market. Not so much now.
Nothing wrong with that, it's about time the news traders started learning how to trade normal market conditions.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif But according to what you're saying those use to be "normal" market conditions.

Votes are still split fairly evenly... very odd indeed.
  • #42
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:41pm Mar 7, 2007 2:41pm
My vote is YES..

I have an EA that works really good... I adjust the time frame based on the pair I am trading.... but the minimum time frame I trade is the hourly... some pairs such as the yen crosses i either put on the 4hr or daily.

It should be noted that unlike others... I am not looking for the 50% return each day... in fact there might be a week that goes by where the EA doesnt pick up a trade.. I also dont pick the lot size.... I let the money management feature determine how many lots to trade based on the % i entered as my risk.. this way... as the account grows... so does my lot size..
  • #43
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:46pm Mar 7, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
On your sample you're right. Sir, I'm concerned with where the market goes tomorrow not yesterday. Have a look at this year and tell me it hasn't changed.
I see two mega 700 pip moves in less than 90 days on the cable Sir, what more do you want from the market ?

I was able to capture both up and down moves with two simple trendlines and 1 support and resistance line, no fancy EA needed.
  • #44
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:52pm Mar 7, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting marie
My vote is YES..

I have an EA that works really good... I adjust the time frame based on the pair I am trading.... but the minimum time frame I trade is the hourly... some pairs such as the yen crosses i either put on the 4hr or daily.

It should be noted that unlike others... I am not looking for the 50% return each day... in fact there might be a week that goes by where the EA doesnt pick up a trade.. I also dont pick the lot size.... I let the money management feature determine how many lots to trade based on the % i entered as my risk.. this way... as the account grows... so does my lot size..

Marie,

How long have you been running the EA. Have you had a chance to experience its performance in both market conditions. Firebird kicked ass for a while too (made 300% in a week), but then a 1000 pip trend broke out and I gave it all back... and then some. Just curious.
  • #45
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:53pm Mar 7, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Really ? Is that so ? Let's see....

Here are the yearly ranges for the GBP/USD for the last 10 years:

1997 : 1474 pips
1998 : 1265 pips
1999 : 1315 pips
2000 : 2623 pips
2001 : 1417 pips
2002 : 2090 pips
2003 : 2484 pips
2004 : 2068 pips
2005 : 2277 pips
2006 : 2644 pips

From 1997 to 2001 (5 years) the average yearly range was 1618 pips while from 2002 to 2006 (5 years) it was 2312 pips or almost 43% MORE volatility, so do you see ANY decrease in volatility here, because I am sure as hell don't !!
:-)
To add to your data, average daily range (250) over the years:
'90 - 158
'91 - 173
'92 - 199
'93 - 232
'94 - 181
'95 - 126
'96 - 159
'97 - 106
'98 - 151
'99 - 144
'00 - 124
'01 - 142
'02 - 123
'03 - 104
'04 - 136
'05 - 178
'06 - 141
'07 - 133


So where is the change?
  • #46
  • Edited 3:16pm Mar 7, 2007 3:06pm | Edited 3:16pm
Quoting lwojtow
:-)
To add to your data, average daily range (250) over the years:
'90 - 158
'91 - 173
'92 - 199
'93 - 232
'94 - 181
'95 - 126
'96 - 159
'97 - 106
'98 - 151
'99 - 144
'00 - 124
'01 - 142
'02 - 123
'03 - 104
'04 - 136
'05 - 178
'06 - 141
'07 - 133


So where is the change?
On the daily range, a very small 2 pip increase on average per day during the last 6 years. But this info should only interest day-traders.

This point is this : there is NO 50% decrease in volatility in the FX market during the last 3 years, like our friend WhyOhWhy is suggesting. During the last few years, long term and medium term traders were able to harvest more pips from the cable because the cable is travelling "longer" distances, and on an intraday basis we do NOT notice any particular change in volatility at all.
  • #47
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:11pm Mar 7, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting FXTerminator
I just showed you that volatility has never been better in the forex market, it has INCREASED during the last 5 years.

If your EA has been making less money during the last few years, then there is something wrong with your EA, it is not robust enough, period, the market itself is fine.
Did you even read my post? I never stated that volatility decreased, nor did I claim to have an EA that is profitable/unprofitable.

I'm curious, what is your obsession with trying to prove everybody wrong? I searched through your posts and every one of your posts is attempting to discredit what somebody else has stated. There are more subtle ways to convey an opinion without being arrogant. Just my two cents.
  • #48
  • Edited 3:39pm Mar 7, 2007 3:15pm | Edited 3:39pm
Quoting hidethereal
Did you even read my post? I never stated that volatility decreased, nor did I claim to have an EA that is profitable/unprofitable.

I'm curious, what is your obsession with trying to prove everybody wrong? I searched through your posts and every one of your posts is attempting to discredit what somebody else has stated. There are more subtle ways to convey an opinion without being arrogant. Just my two cents.
When I say "You" in a post, it does not necessarily means YOU or someone in particular Hidethereal, it just means the trader in general, sorry for the confusion.

I am not trying to discredit anybody (we are just exchanging trading ideas), I just want to deal with the facts, and the facts only, because there are so many false ideas that circulate in forums and people just like to repeat those ideas without even questioning their validity.
  • #49
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:18pm Mar 7, 2007 3:18pm
The definition of suddenly is quickly. On news the moves used to be far bigger. And quicker. And happen quicker because there was more volatility. 90 days for "two mega 700 pip moves in less than 90 days on the cable" is volatility but over a longer time scale than suddenly means. 90 days is not suddenly. But congratulations. I'm now going quickly to bed before you suddenly post again and I feel obliged to reply. If needed I'll comment further tomorrow.
Quoting Why Oh Why
I wrote "The forex market has undergone a profound change. In past years, a trade imbalance or an interest rate shift could suddenly move a currency price hundreds of pips. For that reason, success in the forex market followed a traditional formula: Cut your losses short, but let your profits run."

In today's world of tightening economic interdependency, it is in every country's interest to maintain economic and financial stability—even if it costs. And trade surplus countries (in particular China) now effectively underwrite trade deficit countries (in particular the US) in the name of stability and an orderly market. As one result, interest rate differences are compressed. As another, currency volatility is minimised. It's just an opinion FXT. Make of it what you will and great of you to pull me up. Nice to see you again. And let's see what happens this year. I've got my house on it.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #50
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:21pm Mar 7, 2007 3:21pm
Quoting FXTerminator
On the daily range, a very small 2 pip increase on average per day during the last 6 years. But this info should only interest day-traders.

This point is this : there is NO 50% decrease in volatility in the FX market during the last 3 years, like our friend WhyOhWhy is suggesting. During the last few years, long term and medium term traders were able to harvest more pips from the cable because the cable is travelling "longer" distances, and on an intraday basis we do NOT notice any particular change in volatility at all.
Blimey FXT I can't keep up with you. I'll comment on this tomorrow. I'm really going now.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #51
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:28pm Mar 7, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
You didn't see this. Comments?

When was the last time you saw that sort of move? Fundamental announcements on unemployment figures, interest rate changes, CPI figures, inflation, GDP, etc use to cause huge swings in the market. Not so much now
Sir, I still have to verify that statement and see if the NFP report for example is indeed producing less volatile moves than before these last few years or if this is just an illusion.
  • #52
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:48pm Mar 7, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting FXTerminator
When I say "You" in a post, it does not necessarily means YOU or someone in particular Hidethereal, it just means the trader in general, sorry for the confusion.

I am not trying to discredit anybody (we are just exchanging trading ideas), I just want to deal with the facts, and the facts only, because there are so many false ideas that circulate in forums and people just like to repeat those ideas without even questioning their validity.
Thanks for the answer, I am glad you didn't take it the wrong way.
  • #53
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:43pm Mar 7, 2007 8:43pm
Quoting mr.marketz
Marie,

How long have you been running the EA. Have you had a chance to experience its performance in both market conditions. Firebird kicked ass for a while too (made 300% in a week), but then a 1000 pip trend broke out and I gave it all back... and then some. Just curious.
I have been running it in a demo since October and live for about a month.. Obviously its not 100% or i'd be rich ... But... it works GREAT in trending markets and GOOD in ranging markets...

In my live account i use i have it on a short leash with only a 25 pip target.. but as time goes on i will let it run its course..

As far as firebird... i saw the results and they were incredible!.. but i also saw the drawdown results and they were scary!!!
  • #54
  • Edited 10:18pm Mar 7, 2007 8:53pm | Edited 10:18pm
Quoting marie
As far as firebird... i saw the results and they were incredible!.. but i also saw the drawdown results and they were scary!!!
Firebird is just an accident waiting to happen, the inherent logic and the money-management behind the system are not sound, even though the results seem almost unreal, at first glance.

It did not happen yet but it will only take one or 2 weeks of extremely "bad market conditions" to erase months if not years of profits!

Or even worse, if you are not lucky and your timing is off it could blow up your entire trading account right from the start, without ever giving you a chance to earn one single pip first !!
  • #55
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:09pm Mar 7, 2007 9:09pm
Quoting mr.marketz
... a 1000 pip trend broke out and I gave it all back...
where did you experience that 1000 pip trend break, and what time span?
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #56
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:28pm Mar 7, 2007 9:28pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Firebird is just an accident waiting to happen...
EA's are tools. Firebird is a tool, and it can be a dangerous tool. When used carelessly a power saw is incredibly dangerous, but that doesn't make it an "unsound" instrument in and of itself.

Left alone for any length of time, I think the very idea of an EA is "unsound". So I guess I fit in the NO column even though I've made a tidy profit on Firebird since July, and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.
  • #57
  • Edited 10:32pm Mar 7, 2007 10:11pm | Edited 10:32pm
Quoting sm31
Left alone for any length of time, I think the very idea of an EA is "unsound".
And why is that Sir? The idea of making money while you sleep does not appeal to you ?

Quote
So I guess I fit in the NO column even though I've made a tidy profit on Firebird since July, and will continue to do so for the forseeable future.
In other words it's like betting that your house will NOT burn THIS year so you are not buying any insurance... http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Just kidding and happy trading, with or without Firebird.
  • #58
  • Mar 8, 2007 12:00am Mar 8, 2007 12:00am
Quoting slide
where did you experience that 1000 pip trend break, and what time span?
GBP/USD Half way through Nov of 06 to beginning of Dec.
  • #59
  • Mar 8, 2007 12:02am Mar 8, 2007 12:02am
Quoting marie
I have been running it in a demo since October and live for about a month.. Obviously its not 100% or i'd be rich ... But... it works GREAT in trending markets and GOOD in ranging markets...

In my live account i use i have it on a short leash with only a 25 pip target.. but as time goes on i will let it run its course..

As far as firebird... i saw the results and they were incredible!.. but i also saw the drawdown results and they were scary!!!

That's really great Marie, good luck with it and I hope you're equity curve runs all the way up to the heavens.
  • #60
  • Mar 8, 2007 12:10am Mar 8, 2007 12:10am
The poll is currently showing a perfect split on the YES and NO groups. This is really blowing my mind... a perfect balance. I wanted to start this poll because I was convinced that the YES group would heavily out number the NO's. My rationality was that, given the choice - human nature will always opt to avoid responsibility, EA's are a perfect outlet for that. "My EA lost a bunch of money last night", definitely sounds better than... "I totally lost control of my emotions and will power, and lost a bunch of my money last night". I'm glad to see that there is an equal audience in both groups, more importantly it's great that the YES group (at least those that have commented on this thread) are extremely sharp in their approach to the usage of EA's.

You guys are giving me the warm fuzzieshttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
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