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Do YOU think EA's work (POLL)

  • #21
  • Edited 7:06am Mar 7, 2007 6:48am | Edited 7:06am
Hi,

I'm a professional trader and economist.

The expert advisors works for me very nice. I use a software for model a neural network and fuzzy logic to predict the signal for LONG or SHORT and then i wrote the code for MT4.http://www.consultingforex.cl/images_post/sum.gif
  • #22
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:52am Mar 7, 2007 6:52am
Quoting pablorpl
Hi,

I'm a professional trader and economist.

The expert advisors works for me very nice. I use a software for model a neural network and fuzzy logic to predict the signal for LONG or SHORT and then i wrote the code for MT4.
F A N T A S T I C
OldSchool
  • #23
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:00am Mar 7, 2007 7:00am
Do they work? Ask Ed Seykota. Does market change? Ask some trend followers, who have been in this business for 30 years and trade billions of dollars.
  • #24
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:10am Mar 7, 2007 7:10am
Quoting lwojtow
Do they work? Ask Ed Seykota. Does market change? Ask some trend followers, who have been in this business for 30 years and trade billions of dollars.
The utility of use NN is which that use the past and the NEW information for predict the signals.. so they are the recurrent topologies..

But, they need be retraining some times for year.
  • #25
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:31am Mar 7, 2007 7:31am
yes they work i have ran ea's for years - even since before mt4 in the old mt3 days. i have several and they all work and continue to do so.
https://linktr.ee/Soultrader
  • #26
  • Edited 8:17am Mar 7, 2007 7:43am | Edited 8:17am
Here is one I have written and have been running since last June.

They definitely work, but they work best if the person running it knows how to program and how to make adjustments over time, to make it adapt as conditions change.

The real key is the same as any profession. One must know their craft.

A doctor must know medicine. A Lawyer must know law. A Scientist must know math. A trader must know trading... It is really that simple and yet that complex. There are no short cuts.

I think of it more as assisted trading, because the person who uses it better know what it is doing, how it is making decisions and how to change the way it decides to enter and exit a trade.
They really are only automated in the sense that they will trade when you are not around, but the method was programmed, hopefully by a trader who actually know how to trade.
  • #27
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:39am Mar 7, 2007 8:39am
Some nice additional info here guys, thanks for sharing. Still @ about 50/50... what gives, I was thinking the YES group would have crushed it by now. Goes to show you how keen my predictive qualities are... I guess that explains what happened to my account todayhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
  • #28
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:34am Mar 7, 2007 11:34am
If EAs would have worked..why do we think UBS, JPmorgan, Goldman sacks..go with a guy with 10+ experience in Forex than with a programmer who worked for microsoft, google for 5 years and wrote EAs for another 5 years

These guys can write 1 million lines of code for an EA yet if you have "EXPERIENCE" they take you first

I wonder why
  • #29
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:57am Mar 7, 2007 11:57am
Quoting incomeideas
Market conditions will change sooner or later, but there is no program nor software that is able to pick that up and make self-adjustment. Human brain works are needed to come out with a new EA version. And the cycle continues.
The forex market has undergone a profound change. In past years, a trade imbalance or an interest rate shift could suddenly move a currency price hundreds of pips. For that reason, success in the forex market followed a traditional formula: Cut your losses short, but let your profits run. Traders took small losses quickly, but rode big trends for big wins. A volatile forex market rewarded breakout traders.

Using that formula, professional traders were disciplined enough (or their black boxes were disciplined enough) to absorb several small losing trades, because their one, very large win more than made up for them. Using a breakout trading system, only 30% of the trades had to be winners, because the payoff on a breakout trade could be six times the total of the losses. The risk/reward ratio and the mathematical probabilities were in their favour.

Recently, however, traders have been searching in vain for that kind of explosive breakout market. Forex is no longer a market in which the trader can exploit volatility. Volatility in the major currency pairs has fallen over 50% in the last three years. Unfortunately, too many traders—even professionals with years of experience—have been slow to adjust, and have paid the price. Accumulating a half-years worth of small losses (by continually being stopped out), they can no longer make up those losses, because the huge breakout they need is not there.

Instead, in a market where the price moves inside a support-resistance tunnel, it can be possible for the trader to profit by overwhelming one major losing trade with several small ones. The new math says that by trading in a range, 90% of the trades can be winners offsetting losing trades, and that a 200-pip loss can be more than offset by a collection of 30-pip wins, taken by harvesting tops and bottoms as the price oscillates inside its price tunnel. Good for an EA. No matter which way the currency price travels, its natural tendency is to move back and forth inside defined price channels. The trader takes small profits quickly, sets up generous 200-pip holds to avoid being stopped out, and waits for the price to retrace.

IMO an EA expertly written can, and will, in the new market place, outperform traders who by human nature can be reluctant to trade in a different style. Change is good. But implementing it in FX trading can be difficult. It's not that some people have willpower and some don't. It's that some people are ready to change and others are not. An EA doesn't have emotions - apart from my little Miss Bag. And she is profitable due to the talent here at Forex Factory and Mr F in particular. Have a great day everyone.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #30
  • Mar 7, 2007 1:33pm Mar 7, 2007 1:33pm
Quoting jlpi
I voted yes because I think it works. Of course not in the way that you let it run for years and just let money coming because of course the market conditions are changing and then you need to adapt your strategy.
The markets do not change "over time", this is still another myth!

Markets go up, down or sideway, that's all they do, day after day, year after year.

And this is what they will ALWAYS do.
  • #31
  • Mar 7, 2007 1:47pm Mar 7, 2007 1:47pm
Quoting FXTerminator
The markets do not change "over time", this is still another myth!

Markets go up, down or sideway, that's all they do, day after day, year after year.

And this is what they will ALWAYS do.
Volatily changes and has an impact on automated strategies.
  • #32
  • Mar 7, 2007 1:49pm Mar 7, 2007 1:49pm
Quoting smjones
Here is one I have written and have been running since last June.
Where did it go?
  • #33
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:06pm Mar 7, 2007 2:06pm
Quoting Why Oh Why

Recently, however, traders have been searching in vain for that kind of explosive breakout market. Forex is no longer a market in which the trader can exploit volatility. Volatility in the major currency pairs has fallen over 50% in the last three years.
Really ? Is that so ? Let's see....

Here are the yearly ranges for the GBP/USD for the last 10 years:

1997 : 1474 pips
1998 : 1265 pips
1999 : 1315 pips
2000 : 2623 pips
2001 : 1417 pips
2002 : 2090 pips
2003 : 2484 pips
2004 : 2068 pips
2005 : 2277 pips
2006 : 2644 pips

From 1997 to 2001 (5 years) the average yearly range was 1618 pips while from 2002 to 2006 (5 years) it was 2312 pips or almost 43% MORE volatility, so do you see ANY decrease in volatility here, because I am sure as hell don't !!
  • #34
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:09pm Mar 7, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting hidethereal
Volatily changes and has an impact on automated strategies.
Absolutely. My point entirely. And that's why a well written EA which is updated or written for a market type can be profitable. But right now "..in a market where the price moves inside a support-resistance tunnel, it can be possible for the trader to profit by overwhelming one major losing trade with several small ones. The new math says that by trading in a range, 90% of the trades can be winners offsetting losing trades, and that a 200-pip loss can be more than offset by a collection of 30-pip wins, taken by harvesting tops and bottoms as the price oscillates inside its price tunnel."

It's great for an EA. Especially for one which has invisible SL and TP in a ranging market like now. It ain't trending. That's changed IMO. And volatility certainly has. But call it what you like FXTerminator. As you can see there is a 100 pips open profit on Bag TV now.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #35
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:21pm Mar 7, 2007 2:21pm
I have had limited experience using automated systems and so far I have mixed results. I am hesitant to use one under volatile market conditions , however it seems to work well during range bound markets.
{Link Removed}
  • #36
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:29pm Mar 7, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting FXTerminator
From 1997 to 2000 the average yearly range was 1618 pips while from 2001 to 2006 it was 2312 pips or almost 43% MORE volatility, so do you see ANY decrease in volatility here, because I am sure as hell don't ??
On your sample you're right. Sir, I'm concerned with where the market goes tomorrow not yesterday. Have a look at this year and tell me it hasn't changed.

I wrote "The forex market has undergone a profound change. In past years, a trade imbalance or an interest rate shift could suddenly move a currency price hundreds of pips. For that reason, success in the forex market followed a traditional formula: Cut your losses short, but let your profits run."

When was the last time you saw that sort of move? Fundamental announcements on unemployment figures, interest rate changes, CPI figures, inflation, GDP, etc use to cause huge swings in the market. Not so much now.

Why? Through the 1980s and 1990s, and even into the new century, the distinctive characteristic of the FX market was its volatility—a volatility that was a reflection of major imbalances between national economies.

When a country over-spent or over-borrowed, or when its external trade went wildly out of balance, its interest rates were forced up and its economic growth slowed down. In the forex market, the country's currency also paid the price—usually by sudden and sometimes drastic devaluation. In short, economic imbalance generated currency volatility.

Increasing globalisation has changed all that. In today's world of tightening economic interdependency, it is in every country's interest to maintain economic and financial stability—even if it costs. And trade surplus countries (in particular China) now effectively underwrite trade deficit countries (in particular the US) in the name of stability and an orderly market. As one result, interest rate differences are compressed. As another, currency volatility is minimised. It's just an opinion FXT. Make of it what you will and great of you to pull me up. Nice to see you again. And let's see what happens this year. I've got my house on it.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #37
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:31pm Mar 7, 2007 2:31pm
Quoting hidethereal
Volatily changes and has an impact on automated strategies.
I just showed you that volatility has never been better in the forex market, it has INCREASED during the last 5 years.

If your EA has been making less money during the last few years, then there is something wrong with your EA, it is not robust enough, period, the market itself is fine.
  • #38
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:34pm Mar 7, 2007 2:34pm
You didn't see this. Comments?
Quoting Why Oh Why
On your sample you're right. Sir, I'm concerned with where the market goes tomorrow not yesterday. Have a look at this year and tell me it hasn't changed.

I wrote "The forex market has undergone a profound change. In past years, a trade imbalance or an interest rate shift could suddenly move a currency price hundreds of pips. For that reason, success in the forex market followed a traditional formula: Cut your losses short, but let your profits run."

When was the last time you saw that sort of move? Fundamental announcements on unemployment figures, interest rate changes, CPI figures, inflation, GDP, etc use to cause huge swings in the market. Not so much now.

Why? Through the 1980s and 1990s, and even into the new century, the distinctive characteristic of the FX market was its volatility—a volatility that was a reflection of major imbalances between national economies.

When a country over-spent or over-borrowed, or when its external trade went wildly out of balance, its interest rates were forced up and its economic growth slowed down. In the forex market, the country's currency also paid the price—usually by sudden and sometimes drastic devaluation. In short, economic imbalance generated currency volatility.

Increasing globalisation has changed all that. In today's world of tightening economic interdependency, it is in every country's interest to maintain economic and financial stability—even if it costs. And trade surplus countries (in particular China) now effectively underwrite trade deficit countries (in particular the US) in the name of stability and an orderly market. As one result, interest rate differences are compressed. As another, currency volatility is minimised. It's just an opinion FXT. Make of it what you will and great of you to pull me up. Nice to see you again. And let's see what happens this year. I've got my house on it.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #39
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:37pm Mar 7, 2007 2:37pm
Quoting FXTerminator
I just showed you that volatility has never been better in the forex market, it has INCREASED during the last 5 years.
Not in my context.

And the EA is new - but it's profitable over the last 6 weeks.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #40
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:40pm Mar 7, 2007 2:40pm
Quoting spiderforex
If EAs would have worked..why do we think UBS, JPmorgan, Goldman sacks..go with a guy with 10+ experience in Forex than with a programmer who worked for microsoft, google for 5 years and wrote EAs for another 5 years

These guys can write 1 million lines of code for an EA yet if you have "EXPERIENCE" they take you first

I wonder why
Because programming is simple. Trading is much more difficult. It takes an average programmer to program an EA, but it takes great trader to survive 20+ years in the market. My EA's have between 30-300 lines, my biggest program ever has over 10 000, hazard a guess which one was more difficult to program and which one made me more money?
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