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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,981
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:06am Mar 7, 2007 7:06am
Well, it looks like I'm going to take my first loss with Phillip;s method. But, 8 out of 9 ain't too bad. I was off from work yesterday so I was able to post more. Had to learn how to give my cat insulin shots twice a day for diabetes, not too bad actually. Anyway, looking back through my notes, I remember that when there is a merging of several ma's in one area, that means market indecision to me. The 4hr was below the 89 but there are four ma's currently touching the candle forming on the 1hr. Anyway, just thought I'd throw this out there if anyone is interested. I still haven't cleaned my room either.
  • #1,982
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:33am Mar 7, 2007 7:33am
Quoting Palmer
Well, it looks like I'm going to take my first loss with Phillip;s method. But, 8 out of 9 ain't too bad. I was off from work yesterday so I was able to post more. Had to learn how to give my cat insulin shots twice a day for diabetes, not too bad actually. Anyway, looking back through my notes, I remember that when there is a merging of several ma's in one area, that means market indecision to me. The 4hr was below the 89 but there are four ma's currently touching the candle forming on the 1hr. Anyway, just thought I'd throw this out there if anyone is interested. I still haven't cleaned my room either.
Hi Palmer! What a great trade record!!! With a history like that, you'll have no problem buying all that insulin for your cat (poor baby ).

Quick question, because I didn't see any short signals from the 4 hour yesterday. Were you trading from the signals on the 1 hour exclusively? & if yes, is this where the 9 trades have all been planned from? Would expect more losses from hourly signals.

Couldn't agree w/you more re:MA's on 1 hour....I call that Death Valley aka "no man's land." Market is not doing anything but whipsawing here and there...YUCK!!!! But, it should result in a breakout eventually!!!!
  • #1,983
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:33am Mar 7, 2007 7:33am
That's great Palmer. Great job. Most traders would KILL for a 90% average. I'm sitting at around 85% on over 30 trades the past few weeks (when the proper rules... if I freak out and make a poor decision I don't count it against the system).

Question: Are we seriously going to have to wait another day before the market breaks from it's "flatness" when the gbp and eur interest rates come out?!?!?!? It thought the usd nonfarm may help us out... but apparently not...


Quoting Palmer
Well, it looks like I'm going to take my first loss with Phillip;s method. But, 8 out of 9 ain't too bad. I was off from work yesterday so I was able to post more. Had to learn how to give my cat insulin shots twice a day for diabetes, not too bad actually. Anyway, looking back through my notes, I remember that when there is a merging of several ma's in one area, that means market indecision to me. The 4hr was below the 89 but there are four ma's currently touching the candle forming on the 1hr. Anyway, just thought I'd throw this out there if anyone is interested. I still haven't cleaned my room either.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,984
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:37am Mar 7, 2007 7:37am
Quoting DireXiv
That's great Palmer. Great job. Most traders would KILL for a 90% average. I'm sitting at around 85% on over 30 trades the past few weeks (when the proper rules... if I freak out and make a poor decision I don't count it against the system).

Question: Are we seriously going to have to wait another day before the market breaks from it's "flatness" when the gbp and eur interest rates come out?!?!?!? It thought the usd nonfarm may help us out... but apparently not...
I'm thinking NFP may be making it even worse! (really...I'm an optimist!) & isn't Trade Balance released too at same time??? Could be ugly!

Hey, did you buy a Mega Lottotery ticket in NJ? Heard 1 of the winning tickets came from there! Of course w/an 85% sucess rate, who needs the lottery???? Great Job!
  • #1,985
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:04am Mar 7, 2007 8:04am
Because the 4hr was below the 89 and the 1hr had a downturn in the MACD to red, that was the signal. I believe that the 4hr was hitting the 21 and I took that per Phillip's method "price tests the 21 and continues in the previous direction", which would be down in this case. Even though the 4hr candle wasn't completed, the 1hr gave the MACD short signal so that's what gave me the entry. And yes, the majority of the winners are from the 4hr, more pips there vs the 1hr winners. The smaller your timeframe the smaller you pip target should be. Longer timeframes have better success rates. I think I was getting bored waiting for something to happen on the 4hr so I took the 1 hr. Did I force the trade...I think so. I'm glad someone agrees with me that the 'confluence' (Thanks John Madden) of ma's is a scarey place to be.

Two interest rate news thingy's out tomorrow.
Friday lots of news out in the morning all at once. I don't even think I'll look at a chart until 8am central US, or at all.

My cat 'Beano' is a champ going through all of this. And no, he doesn't have a gaseous ouflow problem. That's just his name.

I'll get those pips back I tell you if it's the last thing I do!!!!

On to battle!!!

P.S. I'm back at work so my posting may be limited....
  • #1,986
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:09am Mar 7, 2007 8:09am
I was looking thru some old posts and re-read Phil's discussion about market rythm. I posted some analysis for euro at that time. Just something to remember for myself when planning a long-term trading. This is where we were at that time.
Attached Image
  • #1,987
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:12am Mar 7, 2007 8:12am
this is where we are today. Looks like another leg (wave) is about to be completed.
Attached Image
  • #1,988
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:17am Mar 7, 2007 8:17am
Guys, it would be fine if you put the currencies pair name (e.g. EUR/USD) you are talking about in a title, because very often it's hard to decipher what a discussion subject is without reading the previous messages. For instance, the Palmer's msg #1981.
Ben
  • #1,989
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:39am Mar 7, 2007 8:39am
Quoting tamkras
this is where we are today. Looks like another leg (wave) is about to be completed.
Tamkras,

as always your analysis is great. I am waiting for the drop in the Euro. Right now I am at work, so I am hoping it will hold until I am back at my trading computer and can jump in....otherwise I will see it the pips falling from the shore...like a bear without paws looking at the salmon jumping in the river!!!
  • #1,990
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:06am Mar 7, 2007 9:06am
Hey Tamkras, your chart is right on mine, I have a sell limit at 3140 for technical reasons because I will be away from my platform for a while. I anticipate it going up to touch the trendline, then come down. Im gonna guess the 3168 mark because of the shoulder on the other side. But my stop is at 3200. I am trying this because so many signals are occouring when I am at work. We shall see.

J
  • #1,991
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:10am Mar 7, 2007 9:10am
Hello everyone,

I just came across this forum and Phillips system four days and I am blown away at the details, time, and support he has put into this! Thanks so much!!! I am still going through all the posts but I think I have the ideas and signals pretty well understood.

Look forward to trading with everyone. Tamkras I wonder if we are in the process of forming a right shoulder on Eur/usd (4hr) coming in where the trendline is .3170 region.

Pilgrim
  • #1,992
  • Edited 9:31am Mar 7, 2007 9:15am | Edited 9:31am
Quoting Palmer
Because the 4hr was below the 89 and the 1hr had a downturn in the MACD to red, that was the signal. I believe that the 4hr was hitting the 21 and I took that per Phillip's method "price tests the 21 and continues in the previous direction", which would be down in this case. Even though the 4hr candle wasn't completed, the 1hr gave the MACD short signal so that's what gave me the entry. And yes, the majority of the winners are from the 4hr, more pips there vs the 1hr winners. The smaller your timeframe the smaller you pip target should be. Longer timeframes have better success rates. I think I was getting bored waiting for something to happen on the 4hr so I took the 1 hr. Did I force the trade...I think so. I'm glad someone agrees with me that the 'confluence' (Thanks John Madden) of ma's is a scarey place to be.

Two interest rate news thingy's out tomorrow.
Friday lots of news out in the morning all at once. I don't even think I'll look at a chart until 8am central US, or at all.

My cat 'Beano' is a champ going through all of this. And no, he doesn't have a gaseous ouflow problem. That's just his name.

I'll get those pips back I tell you if it's the last thing I do!!!!

On to battle!!!

P.S. I'm back at work so my posting may be limited....

LOL on the Last thing you'll do!! Thanks for making me smile early this morning!!!!

I understand the trade now. Guess when we try to get on board early, the risk increases (you did a great job w/a tight stop!).

Funny about being bored so you took the trade that looked good...I call that the Ace Jack hand. If you play poker, and you are sitting there throwing hand after hand in....pretty soon, an AJ shows up and looks really good...so you play...and if your me...you lose...moral of the story....if you want to make some quick money, play poker with me...hehe.

Glad to hear Beano is doing well! Have a happy Wednesday
  • #1,993
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:17am Mar 7, 2007 9:17am
Quoting Benf
Guys, it would be fine if you put the currencies pair name (e.g. EUR/USD) you are talking about in a title, because very often it's hard to decipher what a discussion subject is without reading the previous messages. For instance, the Palmer's msg #1981.
Good idea...
  • #1,994
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:29am Mar 7, 2007 9:29am
Quoting alcastro
Tamkras,

as always your analysis is great. I am waiting for the drop in the Euro. Right now I am at work, so I am hoping it will hold until I am back at my trading computer and can jump in....otherwise I will see it the pips falling from the shore...like a bear without paws looking at the salmon jumping in the river!!!
Wow...where in the world did you get this vivid image? Are you the forex poet? YIKES!
  • #1,995
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:48am Mar 7, 2007 9:48am
Great chart Tamkras,

I am looking for the eur/usd to short too. The market rythm really can help when trying to decifer when to trade... It has worked very well for me (but don't place too much dependence on it) as a secondary confirmation.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but another rule to think about would be that if the price crosses the 89, isn't it suppose to come back and touch the 89? Then continue in the trend previous established? In this case, it is basically touching or has touched, and should now continue in the down trend when we get a MACD signal (the 1 hour we're hitting newly established upper t/l too).

Quoting tamkras
this is where we are today. Looks like another leg (wave) is about to be completed.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,996
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:00am Mar 7, 2007 10:00am
Quoting hard1head1
Hey Tamkras, your chart is right on mine, I have a sell limit at 3140 for technical reasons because I will be away from my platform for a while. I anticipate it going up to touch the trendline, then come down. Im gonna guess the 3168 mark because of the shoulder on the other side. But my stop is at 3200. I am trying this because so many signals are occouring when I am at work. We shall see.

J
When I posted a chart I was on the long side of euro and I wanted demonstrated an upside euro potential. If you can see the fat red bar on my euro chart, this is where I marked the resistance. When some traders posted their short orders at the 1.3130 price level, I was a bit concerned because of this empty space between 1.3130 which was broken and the bar level of 1.3159. Further price action confirmed this scenario completely. I hope you might understand my chart and my interpretation of support/resistance. Now, shorting from 1.3150 would provide you with a better R:R. Yours, T.
  • #1,997
  • Edited 11:20am Mar 7, 2007 10:08am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting pilgrim
Hello everyone,

I just came across this forum and Phillips system four days and I am blown away at the details, time, and support he has put into this! Thanks so much!!! I am still going through all the posts but I think I have the ideas and signals pretty well understood.

Look forward to trading with everyone. Tamkras I wonder if we are in the process of forming a right shoulder on Eur/usd (4hr) coming in where the trendline is .3170 region.

Pilgrim
I do not see anything forming up that level. The highest mark I've put for this run-up is 1.3159. The resistance is intensifying at the 1.3150 level. Price action can tell stories.

P.S. Ben, I will follow your recommendation on message headers.
  • #1,998
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:12am Mar 7, 2007 10:12am
Quoting pips4uandme
Wow...where in the world did you get this vivid image? Are you the forex poet? YIKES!
sometimes (and very often) I feel I can read future price action, he-he. That's why I am a trader.
  • #1,999
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:13am Mar 7, 2007 10:13am
Quoting tamkras
When I posted a chart I was on the long side of euro and I wanted demonstrated an upside euro potential. If you can see the fat red bar on my euro chart, this is where I marked the resistance. When some traders posted their short orders at the 1.3130 price level, I was a bit concerned because of this empty space between 1.3130 which was broken and the bar level of 1.3159. Further price action confirmed this scenario completely. I hope you might understand my chart and my interpretation of support/resistance. Now, shorting from 1.3150 would provide you with a better R:R. Yours, T.
Awesome! Bet you figured price would come very close to the 89, especiallly since MACD was traveling in your trend direction! You are a great chartist!!!!!
  • #2,000
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:15am Mar 7, 2007 10:15am
Quoting tamkras
sometimes (and very often) I feel I can read future price action, he-he. That's why I am a trader.
Then why'd you need that crystal ball? For price comfirmation (hehe)
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