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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #5,501
  • Nov 24, 2008 2:06pm Nov 24, 2008 2:06pm
it's been playing chess around that area for over 5 hours now...maybe we're in for a "minor" drop?
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #5,502
  • Nov 24, 2008 2:42pm Nov 24, 2008 2:42pm
.. we shall play!

I personally have been in too minds about placing any trades. I did stay out until after the UK-pre budget report and the US news and figures came out.

I do have a short in place at 1.2800 as I am following the long term trend. I am not sure if this a retrace on the long term trend or if sentiment is finally turning. People must realise at some point that the US $ is not a 'safe haven' given the continuous bad news coming from the country. USDCHF seems to behave the opposite to EURUSD and the former is showing signs of hesistance in its uptrend and a possible resumption of the looong term trend aroung the 0.618 Fib. As I type, the 4hr chart showing signs of a potential reversal with the beginnings of an evening star formatin.

I am playing it cautiously with 1% captial risk going short.

Anyone else care to share their thinking?
  • #5,503
  • Nov 24, 2008 2:56pm Nov 24, 2008 2:56pm
I really don`t know. Lets see and find out. I`m not in for å minor drop, and it doesn`t matter to me. I`m just unsure wether the arrows are pointing up or down for the long term.

Anyone know what Jacko is thinking at the time? I know he`s not very fond of the USdebtissue, but I also heard he`s assuming things are going to get worse before they get any better...

Short term bullrun now maybe, and then back south again? Guess time will show...
  • #5,504
  • Nov 24, 2008 2:58pm Nov 24, 2008 2:58pm
has anyone else noticed the low volume on the DOW today on this +500 up day? Every other day, the last hour would be in the 100+ million shares. I don't even think we've broken 20million today.
  • #5,505
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:02pm Nov 24, 2008 3:02pm
EUR/USD

We have been trading in a relatively tight range for the past 23 days or so.

To all newbies, please exercise caution when looking for short entries.

Make sure that order flow is moving in the direction of your proposed entry before initiating any new trades.

Regards.

BabeFX.
  • #5,506
  • Nov 24, 2008 4:19pm Nov 24, 2008 4:19pm
Would it be wrong to think that the next good 50% fib entry point for EUR/USD is at 1.3050 according to this chart??? I am looking to go short there.

Any thoughts?


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  • #5,507
  • Nov 24, 2008 4:20pm Nov 24, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting FXfelix
I see that some of you got in now for a short of EU. I`m just wondering if this is Jacko style? Wouldnt you wait for a confirmation on the continuation of the trend first?

When I draw a trendline on the weekly: Down, Daily: down, but the 4hr chart doesn`t really give me the impression that we are continuing down just yet... Time for a correction?

you have nailed it on the head. taking a trade before heading back down is like trying to catch a falling knife in reverse. what do we call that, getting speared by a rising javelin perhaps. if price comes and hits a trendline and is to move away then it has to reverse and go away again so why not wait for it to top out and get back in once direction is reconfirmed. I'm sure if you go back over Jacko's post he likes to wait for that confirmation. short term momentum was/is def up on the 4 hr so i guess what i'm saying is don't be too eager to get into a trade just for the sake of it. take the path of least resistance.

*successful speculation comes from objective observation*
  • #5,508
  • Edited 4:33pm Nov 24, 2008 4:22pm | Edited 4:33pm
seems like long was a wise decision and am quite happy so far having entered (again) at 2900 - albeit i've moved my short up to 2850...maybe we've found the bottom with gold and oil appreciating...however we do need to wait and see what the ecb does and how much that will weaken the euro...edit however having read zorroz I do believe it may be wisest we let the market shake itself out thus ive cancelled my short for the moment...darn pips...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #5,509
  • Nov 24, 2008 4:55pm Nov 24, 2008 4:55pm
Quoting coscorp
seems like long was a wise decision and am quite happy so far having entered (again) at 2900 - albeit i've moved my short up to 2850...maybe we've found the bottom with gold and oil appreciating...however we do need to wait and see what the ecb does and how much that will weaken the euro...edit however having read zorroz I do believe it may be wisest we let the market shake itself out thus ive cancelled my short for the moment...darn pips...
gday coscorp, how you doing?

please don't let me influence any decision making but i just wanted to make the point of waiting and letting the market actually give us a heads up as to when to get in. let it stall a bit and then catch it on the way back down rather than jumping in on the way up. if it's going to go down again it will and has to turn. thats when i'd prefer to grab it but that doesn't mean i'm necessarily right.

happy trading
  • #5,510
  • Nov 24, 2008 4:56pm Nov 24, 2008 4:56pm
Quoting zorroz
... I'm sure if you go back over Jacko's post he likes to wait for that confirmation. short term momentum was/is def up on the 4 hr so i guess what i'm saying is don't be too eager to get into a trade just for the sake of it. take the path of least resistance.

*successful speculation comes from objective observation*
Good point. What would be required to demonstrate "confirmation"?

Thanks!
  • #5,511
  • Nov 24, 2008 5:17pm Nov 24, 2008 5:17pm
I don`t know if I´m right about this, so please, feel free to correct me.

When you look at the weekly chart, you`ll se it pointing down. In the daily chart, it`s pointing down, and in the 4 hour chart it´s going down aswell. What we got today, was down on weekly and daily chart, and the 4 hour pointed up. If the 4 hour chart was down aswell, and trading down today, I`d maybe place a short order since it seems to be moving in the direction of the trend. Since it`s up, Im waiting until it starts to go down again, setting lower highs and lower lows (resuming its trend) or the trend is reversing (wich I don`t think is happening just yet).
  • #5,512
  • Nov 24, 2008 6:03pm Nov 24, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting FXfelix
I don`t know if I´m right about this, so please, feel free to correct me.

When you look at the weekly chart, you`ll se it pointing down. In the daily chart, it`s pointing down, and in the 4 hour chart it´s going down aswell. What we got today, was down on weekly and daily chart, and the 4 hour pointed up. If the 4 hour chart was down aswell, and trading down today, I`d maybe place a short order since it seems to be moving in the direction of the trend. Since it`s up, Im waiting until it starts to go down again, setting lower highs and lower lows...
i totally agree with FX felix. start at weekly and work down. this next bit probably doesn't belong here but i use a couple of ma's to help me recognise the short term and longer term momentum and to help time my decision making but that is purely my doing and nothing to do with jacko's trading plan. i just find it helps me to see the strength of the market and how price action is shaping up. it has nothing to do with crossovers etc etc and i'm still trading according to jacko's plan but it helps me decide when to take a trade and to have confidence that momentum is now on my side again.

we talk alot about not catching the falling knife so this is just the same but in reverse. if you have patience and wait for the market to turn then you may not have to worry about the AH strategy as much. Of course you won't get it right everytime and you will need the AH still but waiting for price action to tell you when is a good time to jump back in, to me, is more preferable than forcing something in the hope that i got the optimal entry point on the way up as in this instance.
  • #5,513
  • Edited Nov 25, 2008 7:29am Nov 24, 2008 6:06pm | Edited Nov 25, 2008 7:29am
Quoting FXfelix
I don`t know if I´m right about this, so please, feel free to correct me.

When you look at the weekly chart, you`ll se it pointing down. In the daily chart, it`s pointing down, and in the 4 hour chart it´s going down aswell. What we got today, was down on weekly and daily chart, and the 4 hour pointed up. If the 4 hour chart was down aswell, and trading down today, I`d maybe place a short order since it seems to be moving in the direction of the trend. Since it`s up, Im waiting until it starts to go down again, setting lower highs and lower lows...

FXfelix.

1. If you look at the weekly chart you will see that todays move has taken out the previous 2 weeks highs.

2.Take a look at the monthly and you will see a tweezer bottom forming.

3. Look at the daily and you will see it is attempting to break out of the range.

4. 4 hour & hourly have both breached the down trend-line formed from the 30th October to 19th November.

If we draw a fib from the high of 30th October to the low of 13th November we are at this moment in time sitting at the 61.8 fib level @1.2943 this could be a possible place to initiate a short.

Regards,

BabeFX.

It is too early to suggest that the pair is going to reverse the short bias however
  • #5,514
  • Nov 25, 2008 7:09am Nov 25, 2008 7:09am
Anyone's fallen soldier get picked up this morning?
  • #5,515
  • Nov 25, 2008 9:37am Nov 25, 2008 9:37am
Can someone please help me figure out MM with Jacko's trades?

First off, I really like Jacko's system because it inherently makes sense to me and I don't want to be jumping at every single pip on the screen.

But I am having trouble with money management (trade management) with this method.

Even when just working in demo, I've determined that I *hate* seeing a price go up +150 pips only to retrace down to +75. At this point, I'm not using any TP (or trailing) and I usually set a SL of 100 pips.

I know that in the long run, the trend will take care of us all and the retracements shouldn't matter as much. But I really don't like taking those opportunity costs and I figure there has to be a better way.

Here's the possible thoughts and I'd like some feedback on them:

1 - After a certain profit (I'm comfortable with 100 pips) I put a trailing stop of 25 on it. Fairly tight, I know, but I don't like losing more than that. Once it closes out, I open the same position, same direction but with a SL of less than 100 pips (not sure on what this number should be just yet).

2 - After a certain profit, I simply close out the position and wait for another retracement, no matter when it comes. This might keep me out of the market longer, but again, I hate seeing the retracements down.

Any thoughts on these? Any other examples of MM that you all use with Jacko?
  • #5,516
  • Nov 25, 2008 9:43am Nov 25, 2008 9:43am
Quoting LongToBeFree
Can someone please help me figure out MM with Jacko's trades?

First off, I really like Jacko's system because it inherently makes sense to me and I don't want to be jumping at every single pip on the screen.

But I am having trouble with money management (trade management) with this method.

Even when just working in demo, I've determined that I *hate* seeing a price go up +150 pips only to retrace down to +75. At this point, I'm not using any TP (or trailing) and I usually set a SL of 100 pips.

I know that in the long run, the trend will...
I share your same feeling of not liking to be 100pips in profit, just to watch it go to break even or maybe 20pips.
What I've been doing is drawing a FIB from the start of the big move to the top of it, and take profit when it hits the 38.2% or the 50.0% line (depending on the weakness).

I've accepted the fact that I may not squeeze more pips out - but in the long term, I believe this is a more profitable method and has been working for me.

Everytime I try to wait for more - it seems price reverses on me and I end up with just a small pile of pips or a B/E trade.
  • #5,517
  • Nov 25, 2008 9:52am Nov 25, 2008 9:52am
Quoting dwildes
I share your same feeling of not liking to be 100pips in profit, just to watch it go to break even or maybe 20pips.
What I've been doing is drawing a FIB from the start of the big move to the top of it, and take profit when it hits the 38.2% or the 50.0% line (depending on the weakness).

I've accepted the fact that I may not squeeze more pips out - but in the long term, I believe this is a more profitable method and has been working for me.

Everytime I try to wait for more - it seems price reverses on me and I end up with just a small pile...
Interesting - I can see the benefit of what you're doing. Do you get back in at the same point or do you just wait for another set up?
  • #5,518
  • Nov 25, 2008 9:53am Nov 25, 2008 9:53am
Quoting LongToBeFree
Interesting - I can see the benefit of what you're doing. Do you get back in at the same point or do you just wait for another set up?
I've been trying to figure out with Jacko on re-entry guidelines, but haven't figured any out yet.

So far - I've just been waiting for another setup as it is safer.
  • #5,519
  • Nov 25, 2008 10:29am Nov 25, 2008 10:29am
zorroz doing fine thx - very good day today...would have been better had my trading station not frozen up while I was away and my friend watched as I gave about 100 pips back to market but I guess thats life...I still closed all my trades at a profit..and increased my account balance by approx 12%...so i'm happy..
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #5,520
  • Edited 12:47pm Nov 25, 2008 12:20pm | Edited 12:47pm
Quoting dwildes
I share your same feeling of not liking to be 100pips in profit, just to watch it go to break even or maybe 20pips.
What I've been doing is drawing a FIB from the start of the big move to the top of it, and take profit when it hits the 38.2% or the 50.0% line (depending on the weakness).

I've accepted the fact that I may not squeeze more pips out - but in the long term, I believe this is a more profitable method and has been working for me.

Everytime I try to wait for more - it seems price reverses on me and I end up with just a small pile of...

Take 3, 5, 7, 11 .....etc. standard, minnie, micro lots (whatever your acct risk %age bears within reason)

---then take %25/33 of lottage at eg. 40 to 60ps
---take another 1/3rd of lottage at 100+ ps
---and trail/stop the remaining 1/3rd+ lots via 75ps or so

highly volatile trading times require innovative profit taking
Euro with an Ave.daily range of 150/200ps and turns on a dime.

look for 3200/95 retest as Euro in link with the Dow/S&P movement in this
sucker rally before more blood hits the street.
--potential to 3600/3800 if Res. breaks--confluence of daily DTL, 50 to 61.8 fibs off the 1.4488 9/22/08 peak)

----keep plenty of powder dry if long----
....can always SAR-(stop and reverse) --a small position-- upon the very possible approach of 3200 ---(3100 breaking with solid daily close above)

skill w/luck to all
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