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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,241
  • Nov 20, 2008 12:04pm Nov 20, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Stake
Several times I have thought about this problem and I think it is almost impossible to take the perfect entry ... unfortunately, the center of gravity of eur / chf is not static, as in all other pairs (would be too easy!) but moves continuously ... I thought something like a dynamic indicator that helps us to see the center of gravity, perhaps the COG, [left]This could certainly help to have under control the movements of the market but still remains a dynamic indicator on a dynamic changing center of gravity, therefore unusable for the purposes...
Hi Stake,

I understand what you meant and I agree with you. Without trying to add indicators etc to this method... a quick look at the longer term picture is usefull to avoid being caught in a stronger and larger flow.

CoG does repaint, that's why it always look so accurate. But it's a good indicator to 'understand' the market when you look at it live.

Today EUR/CHF is 1.5345 (+1.17%) and I still don't want to short it. I really hope Spieler can give us his view on this.
  • #2,242
  • Nov 20, 2008 3:04pm Nov 20, 2008 3:04pm
Quoting NewbieFxFx
Hi Stake,

I understand what you meant and I agree with you. Without trying to add indicators etc to this method... a quick look at the longer term picture is usefull to avoid being caught in a stronger and larger flow.

CoG does repaint, that's why it always look so accurate. But it's a good indicator to 'understand' the market when you look at it live.

Today EUR/CHF is 1.5345 (+1.17%) and I still don't want to short it. I really hope Spieler can give us his view on this.

This was exactly what I mean, we're okay! Can I ask your opinion on the question of speed and the best system for its measurement? I had a question about this some messages back ...
hi, Best regards

  • #2,243
  • Nov 21, 2008 2:02am Nov 21, 2008 2:02am
154 hit i knew that

As for entry point i would suggest to wait at least 0,50 and perhaps 0,60/0,75 before entering a position because volatility is 2/3 times higher than usual.
  • #2,244
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:01am Nov 22, 2008 7:01am
Quoting Stake
Several times I have thought about this problem and I think it is almost impossible to take the perfect entry ... unfortunately, the center of gravity of eur / chf is not static, as in all other pairs (would be too easy!) but moves continuously ... I thought something like a dynamic indicator that helps us to see the center of gravity, perhaps the COG, [left]This could certainly help to have under control the movements of the market but still remains a dynamic indicator on a dynamic changing center of gravity, therefore unusable for the purposes...
The blue line in the chart forms only after u have seen the whole chart. Its not possible to really determine if a trend will form when you can't see whats going to happen next.

Its really hard to determine the COG because u can only see it after it forms and after it forms, there is no promise that the COG still continues to be present in its present form.
  • #2,245
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:21am Nov 24, 2008 3:21am
Quoting pipsalot
You'd have one lot at -0.5%, a second lot at -0.75%, and a third one at -1.0. Your average would be -0.75%, which means that your total position would be in profit if it went back to -0.5%.

What are your criteria for deciding to take profit on the whole position at a return to -0.5% from -1.0% ???

Wouldn't you be expecting/hoping it would return to 0.0% to make a profit on the first trade placed at -0.5%??

Only in hindsight would you know the price never returned to 0.0% until much much later.

elchoco
  • #2,246
  • Nov 25, 2008 1:59am Nov 25, 2008 1:59am
Quoting elchoco
What are your criteria for deciding to take profit on the whole position at a return to -0.5% from -1.0% ???

Wouldn't you be expecting/hoping it would return to 0.0% to make a profit on the first trade placed at -0.5%??

Only in hindsight would you know the price never returned to 0.0% until much much later.

elchoco
No. If I had only one lot at -0.5%, I would close it with a profit at -0.25% (according to spieler's rules).

I try not to be too greedy with this system. I'm usually out when price moves 0.25% in favor of my entire position. So if we take the progression I mentioned earlier, you'd have one lot at -0.5%, another at -0.75%, and a third one at -1%. The average is -0.75%. Suppose price moves to -0.5%, soyou now have three lots with an average profit of 38 pips each (0.25% on the EUR/CHF is about 38 pips right now). 38 x 3 = 114. So that's good enough for me and I'm out.
  • #2,247
  • Nov 27, 2008 1:11am Nov 27, 2008 1:11am
is anyone holding any positions? i am short since last week. 3 levels open. Any suggestions from anyone or any forecasts?
thanks
  • #2,248
  • Nov 27, 2008 8:45am Nov 27, 2008 8:45am
Quoting teldon
is anyone holding any positions? i am short since last week. 3 levels open. Any suggestions from anyone or any forecasts?
thanks

Same here. I could of closed it twice for profit but I was away from my computer of course.
  • #2,249
  • Nov 27, 2008 2:01pm Nov 27, 2008 2:01pm
be careful, this so called spieler guy might be one of those greedy brokers who want you to lose money, this system is doomed, buying into loss is the easiest way to lose money, I would suggest the opposite, buy into strength, just go back on your charts and you will see that every month or so you can find one big gap that will knock you out of your positions or market will never go back to levels where you started to sell or buy, on the other hand go ahead and follow spieler, someone has to lose so someone else will win
  • #2,250
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:34pm Nov 27, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting miosono1
be careful, this so called spieler guy might be one of those greedy brokers who want you to lose money, this system is doomed, buying into loss is the easiest way to lose money, I would suggest the opposite, buy into strength, just go back on your charts and you will see that every month or so you can find one big gap that will knock you out of your positions or market will never go back to levels where you started to sell or buy, on the other hand go ahead and follow spieler, someone has to lose so someone else will win
u are join since 2007 and your first post is about disrespecting someone else...unbelievable..
  • #2,251
  • Nov 27, 2008 6:32pm Nov 27, 2008 6:32pm
Your an Idiot.


Quoting miosono1
be careful, this so called spieler guy might be one of those greedy brokers who want you to lose money, this system is doomed, buying into loss is the easiest way to lose money, I would suggest the opposite, buy into strength, just go back on your charts and you will see that every month or so you can find one big gap that will knock you out of your positions or market will never go back to levels where you started to sell or buy, on the other hand go ahead and follow spieler, someone has to lose so someone else will win...
  • #2,252
  • Nov 28, 2008 4:53am Nov 28, 2008 4:53am
think about what I said and study charts well before you lose your money, don’t ever add on your losing position like spieler wants you to do, never, that’s something that makes brokers rich and honest traders poor, if market goes against you adjust and follow the trend, that’s the only way you will survive, and to that guy who just called me idiot I have one thing to say, and I am gonna quote old Latin phrase: Margaritas ante Porcos
  • #2,253
  • Nov 28, 2008 5:22am Nov 28, 2008 5:22am
Quoting miosono1
be careful, this so called spieler guy might be one of those greedy brokers who want you to lose money, this system is doomed, buying into loss is the easiest way to lose money, I would suggest the opposite, buy into strength, just go back on your charts and you will see that every month or so you can find one big gap that will knock you out of your positions or market will never go back to levels where you started to sell or buy, on the other hand go ahead and follow spieler, someone has to lose so someone else will win
Sorry to say but your post is so useless…
Please add value to the thread or leave. This is your first post and you are already disrespectful. This system is not about buying into loss but taking advantage of a decorrelation.
  • #2,254
  • Nov 29, 2008 3:17am Nov 29, 2008 3:17am
I am always amazed how some people can be so ignorants and they think they can be winners in trading.............

I am a greedy broker but look my thursday statement and if in your whole life you win in trading this kindda of money you will be a not so bad trader .
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls 27 11 08.xls   20 KB | 1,107 downloads
  • #2,255
  • Nov 29, 2008 3:22am Nov 29, 2008 3:22am
I have been spread trading on futures and currencies for years and have never get a negativ year NEVER
It does not consist in trading against the trend but profiting of correlation/decorrelation movement.
These last 2 months have been crazy whatever the strategy.
I had a small loss but my yearly profit is big with the strategy for 2008.
And i could have win on the last one but having suffered a little bit made me cut the position a little bit too soon ( before the target i announced here which has finally been hit)
  • #2,256
  • Nov 29, 2008 3:54am Nov 29, 2008 3:54am
Same with trades details to be more understandable and to avoid people saying fake statements
Attached File(s)
File Type: xml PERF 2711 08.xml   87 KB | 1,057 downloads
  • #2,257
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:14am Nov 30, 2008 2:14am
Spieler, are you still trading Eur/Chf? When are you going back to trading the two separate currencies?
  • #2,258
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:51pm Nov 30, 2008 6:51pm
is anyone long yet, please advise?
decor is-54%.
thx
  • #2,259
  • Dec 1, 2008 4:49am Dec 1, 2008 4:49am
Quoting teldon
is anyone long yet, please advise?
decor is-54%.
thx
2 long positions right now, working out well so far.
  • #2,260
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:06pm Dec 1, 2008 9:06pm
Opened 3rd and 4th positions today. Closed the 4th after .25% retracement so sitting on 3 open positions now.
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