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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #7,701
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:31am Mar 7, 2007 5:31am
Quoting cesarnc
hehehe... No I get my sleep here... I'm at GMT-3h here. So I get from London open to Asia open without sacrificing my sleep, dinner and other evening-related activities

I just like to bring things up when I'm not seeing what everybody else is. The same way that I appreciate when someone pops with a complete opposite scenario to prove me wrong.

My point here is that, we need to know what's coming in the next hour. But the market at large, doesn't. From last Monday, the Big Money is on hold until all stocks market close and then they jump in the carries, which is the one moving the currencies here. No fundies, no dollar.

There are big players reported to have stops both at 9350 and 9250. Yeah, we poor bastards are in the middle trying to catch what's next... This whole week is consolidation and NFP may be - MAY BE - the key to set the direction, for the stock market, too.. So everybody in on the waiting only.

If NFP comes out with the usual B.S. - lousy figure/awesome revision OR vice-versa then we're doomed...

Thx.

Got to love this guy...
  • #7,702
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:33am Mar 7, 2007 5:33am
Quoting Mama007
Cesarnc
will you be able to give us and update on the Beige Book which is at
7gmt tonight - have never heard any discussions on that here or on the news trading sight - any thoughts or comments will be appreciated on how to understand this report
Thanks
No idea mama. I remember Dec's beige book that something was said here and there. But, as I can remember, no big deal move.

There's the ADP coming up in 2hr. But with the Jan's fiasco to forecast NFP, Feb's figure was "non existent" for practical purposes. But, as the market is thin in liquidity today, we may see a spike at this news...

We'd better check overall stock market today and wait for 19h GMT, when market is trading the carries to correct with stock activity. Europe is mixed today after good Asian session. But there's this annoying "bug" behind everybody's ear that this "good performance" of the stocks may be nothing but a "good retracement" prior to further losses...

I just managed to B/E a lousy entry today and now I'm out.
  • #7,703
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:38am Mar 7, 2007 5:38am
Quoting HonaForex
Hey U mean than only we all guys will fighting agianst each & big guys watching us ................wow...........Thanks man
It has been this way since Monday... No fundies to move, techis "kind of" working, although price failed to retrace to 38% of the big fall (9360 in my fib). Now trading below 23% of the big fall and between 50% and 61% of y'day big up to 9350s...
  • #7,704
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:13am Mar 7, 2007 7:13am
Quoting Mama007
Cesarnc
will you be able to give us and update on the Beige Book which is at
7gmt tonight - have never heard any discussions on that here or on the news trading sight - any thoughts or comments will be appreciated on how to understand this report
Thanks
My view wasn't that bad after all...

[ECONOMICS] Today's data prints includes the Fed's Beige Book and it will be closely monitored to see that it says about the general state of the economy, with particular attention on price pressure and labor demand. However, significant revelations are unlikely. Jan consumer credit figures and the ADP employment changes for Feb are also due out today. On the speaker's circuit, Fed's Moskow is due up, yet he is unlikely to reveal anything new in terms of economic or monetary policy views. Additionally, Treasury Sec Paulson is in China, where he will speak on financial market activity. For the most part the market remains cautious after yesterday's global stock-market recovery, and investors will be looking to see if price pressure and volatility returns, as many are predicting. On the political front, Pres Bush travels to Latam to build support for free-trade, open markets and democracy.

- Pres. Bush here in São Paulo tomorrow...
  • #7,705
  • Mar 7, 2007 7:26am Mar 7, 2007 7:26am
Quoting cesarnc
There's the ADP coming up in 2hr. But with the Jan's fiasco to forecast NFP, Feb's figure was "non existent" for practical purposes. But, as the market is thin in liquidity today, we may see a spike at this news...
Still non-existent even with thin liquidity... This ADP should be a yellow folder in the calendar until its credibility comes out of the underground.
  • #7,706
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:06am Mar 7, 2007 8:06am
very choppy market still, no clear direction
  • #7,707
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:15am Mar 7, 2007 8:15am
Quoting cesarnc
Still non-existent even with thin liquidity... This ADP should be a yellow folder in the calendar until its credibility comes out of the underground.

Yes.. yellow
  • #7,708
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:19am Mar 7, 2007 8:19am
Quoting cesarnc
Still non-existent even with thin liquidity... This ADP should be a yellow folder in the calendar until its credibility comes out of the underground.
Do you think the ADP has the ability to predict the NFP, in any way?

It seems like there is little trust in it, from what I gather.
  • #7,709
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:24am Mar 7, 2007 8:24am
Quoting smjones
Do you think the ADP has the ability to predict the NFP, in any way?

It seems like there is little trust in it, from what I gather.
No I don't think. ADP is being said to have this ability. But since January fiasco, it's as good as dead to me...
  • #7,710
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:25am Mar 7, 2007 8:25am
Quoting cesarnc
No I don't think. ADP is being said to have this ability. But since January fiasco, it's as good as dead to me...
I think ADP is the reliable one, actually the one that's not reliable is NFP.
Tra-X
  • #7,711
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:29am Mar 7, 2007 8:29am
Quoting Traex
I think ADP is the reliable one, actually the one that's not reliable is NFP.
Ohhh... you're so right about that.... They come with a bad, bad, worst figure possible at the news and 5 min later revise the previous to an unbelivably awesome figure...

We stay like mice in the maze asking ourselves "is this really just a cheese? Cause I don't like this iron around it"
  • #7,712
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:38am Mar 7, 2007 8:38am
ADP do revision
NFP do revision,
so both do revision.
Which one is reliable ?

I dont care, what i care is the impact from they both release.

ADP , i see no impact to market
NFP , i see BIG impact to market.

Which one is you like ?

More impact, more change for ++++, no impact no $$$$
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #7,713
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:43am Mar 7, 2007 8:43am
Quoting notme32
ADP do revision
NFP do revision,
so both do revision.
Which one is reliable ?

I dont care, what i care is the impact from they both release.

ADP , i see no impact to market
NFP , i see BIG impact to market.

Which one is you like ?

More impact, more change for ++++, no impact no $$$$
Well of course the point I was wondering, is if the ADP can give insight into the direction of the NFP, most of the work is done in trading the NFP before it comes out. It was really not a question of which one to trade.
  • #7,714
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:46am Mar 7, 2007 8:46am
If US market cannot move market with some Economic Indicator in either way,than i think its really big worry ...............I never see market like this so dead in my 4 month trading................its DEAD THAN ALIVE
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #7,715
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:48am Mar 7, 2007 8:48am
Quoting cesarnc

- Pres. Bush here in São Paulo tomorrow...
There goes the neighborhood.
  • #7,716
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:52am Mar 7, 2007 8:52am
Quoting HonaForex
If US market cannot move market with some Economic Indicator in either way,than i think its really big worry ...............I never see market like this so dead in my 4 month trading................its DEAD THAN ALIVE

A very accurate observation.

What movement there is may just be out of habit.

It could also be from the same nervous system phenomenon which can cause the leg of a dead frog to 'jump',
  • #7,717
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:53am Mar 7, 2007 8:53am
Quoting smjones
Well of course the point I was wondering, is if the ADP can give insight into the direction of the NFP, most of the work is done in trading the NFP before it comes out. It was really not a question of which one to trade.
This is last NFP (1hr chart). I don't have smaller time frame. I remember that 15M was pretty scary... Revision turned the market upside down.

Try trading this baby...
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  • #7,718
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:56am Mar 7, 2007 8:56am
Quoting smjones
Well of course the point I was wondering, is if the ADP can give insight into the direction of the NFP, most of the work is done in trading the NFP before it comes out. It was really not a question of which one to trade.
its clearly no.

if ADP have insight into direction, so when its release will be have big impact.
the fact is whatever ADP number, ppl didnt start trade.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #7,719
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:04am Mar 7, 2007 9:04am
Is it just me or is the market seem extremely predictable when it's ranging? It goes up down up down up down. I know a few pips doesn't sound like much but it adds up just after a few waves. One big advantage I see in a ranging market is that it's hard to lose money. There's no big movement to put you in a big hole if you're on the wrong end. And if you're wrong about a trade, just wait 15 minutes or so and the wave will retrace. So why is it that a lot of people not like/do scalping?
  • #7,720
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:08am Mar 7, 2007 9:08am
Quoting moonchild
A very accurate observation.

What movement there is may just be out of habit.

It could also be from the same nervous system phenomenon which can cause the leg of a dead frog to 'jump',

Woooooooooooo...............hey dead frog leg is getting strong to Jump lol..........ascending triangle forming in 5 M chart..............hope it will jump soon................
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
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