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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,961
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:15pm Mar 6, 2007 10:15pm
In this current scenario with the gbp/usd, usd/jpy, and the eur/jpy, the price is below the 89, so it's in a downtrend "mood". It just came up and touched the 21 ema on each pair, and I rode them down and took profit (based on the 1 hour chart), then they each retraced to the 8 ema.

I realize we are in an almost uprecedented market right now, but my question is this:

In this situation, are we still in a downtrend mood (I know we're still below the 89)? The ma's have turned to be at the very minimum flat or pointing up. Does the rule that since it touched the 21 ema, it will fall still apply (which it did nicely)? If so where do we stand? Is everyone looking for a trend continuation DOWN, or UP? I just want to get this straight as I initially was taking everything below 89 as downtrend, but noticed some conflicts in doing this when the trend reverses like it is now.

Thanks for your help guys (and girls).... I don't really see anything to trade at the moment... so heading to bed... someone call me if you see anything will ya?
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,962
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:20pm Mar 6, 2007 10:20pm
hey Smnitro...

tha's too bad... not sure what you traded on, but a rule of mine and Phillips (you probably already know this so I apologize and don't mean to be condescending in anyway), is to set your s/l at least a few pips... usually 5-10 pips above/below resistance lines, high's of previous candles, above below the moving averages ect.... that would be close to your s/l anyway.

The reason.... lots of people set it right at the level they think their safe. And that's when "THEY" come stop hunting and get you... if you had been the 5 pips or so above the level you thought you should actually have it... you would have been great. I learned this the hard way....... stopped out many, many times.... It's better to get stopped out with a bit higher s/l 1/10 times than barely stopped out 6/10 times.

Quoting smnitro1
Short eurjpy

4:30 Candle finished at 152.98 high

My stoploss was set at 153.00

Stopped out!!

WTF!!!!!!!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,963
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:36pm Mar 6, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting DireXiv
hey Smnitro...

tha's too bad... not sure what you traded on, but a rule of mine and Phillips (you probably already know this so I apologize and don't mean to be condescending in anyway), is to set your s/l at least a few pips... usually 5-10 pips above/below resistance lines, high's of previous candles, above below the moving averages ect.... that would be close to your s/l anyway.

The reason.... lots of people set it right at the level they think their safe. And that's when "THEY" come stop hunting and get you... if you had been the 5 pips or so above the level you thought you should actually have it... you would have been great. I learned this the hard way....... stopped out many, many times.... It's better to get stopped out with a bit higher s/l 1/10 times than barely stopped out 6/10 times.

No no, not condescending at all. Thanks for the advice.
Now that I look at it, I should have been a little further back. I was only 8 or so above the 21. The answer I'm looking for though is why was I stopped out? The high of the candle that did the stoppin was only 152.98. My stoploss was 153.00. I guess what I'm saying is, I had 2 pips left, Right?
  • #1,964
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:47pm Mar 6, 2007 10:47pm
Quoting smnitro1
Short eurjpy

4:30 Candle finished at 152.98 high

My stoploss was set at 153.00

Stopped out!!

WTF!!!!!!!
What was your signal to go short?

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,965
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:54pm Mar 6, 2007 10:54pm
Quoting alcastro
I will wait for a clearer confirmation. Even though the price in both Euro and GBP seems to be behaving as predicted. Probably will be jumping around 1 hour after the 4 hr candle close IF the trend continues short AND I have confirmation from 1 hr.
Smart and safe never lost the race

I Like your style....wait for the signals....then act.

Happy piping
  • #1,966
  • Mar 6, 2007 11:03pm Mar 6, 2007 11:03pm
Quoting DireXiv
In this current scenario with the gbp/usd, usd/jpy, and the eur/jpy, the price is below the 89, so it's in a downtrend "mood". It just came up and touched the 21 ema on each pair, and I rode them down and took profit (based on the 1 hour chart), then they each retraced to the 8 ema.

I realize we are in an almost uprecedented market right now, but my question is this:

In this situation, are we still in a downtrend mood (I know we're still below the 89)? The ma's have turned to be at the very minimum flat or pointing up. Does the rule that since it touched the 21 ema, it will fall still apply (which it did nicely)? If so where do we stand? Is everyone looking for a trend continuation DOWN, or UP? I just want to get this straight as I initially was taking everything below 89 as downtrend, but noticed some conflicts in doing this when the trend reverses like it is now.

Thanks for your help guys (and girls).... I don't really see anything to trade at the moment... so heading to bed... someone call me if you see anything will ya?
Hiya DireXiv!

I originally had a plan to sell into strength based on past performance of the MACD super extreme reading (but missed signal while running errands this evening). Am now going to be "flexible" and wait for a sign from the market...try to listen to what it says (trendline breaks and MACD confirmation).

You are absolutely right about the "mood" rule. The price may just bounce up and down through the 21 right now. I think (and please correct me anyone) that we wait for the price to make a move from the average (up or down), bounce and retrace. Lets say it bounces up to the 85, it should retrace to the 21 and the continue back in the direction (provided the pair is starting to trend). With the way the averages are now, we can expect chop (very dangerous territory b/c it's like guessing heads or tails). When the market chops follow the MACD signal with support and resistance levels & candlestick/chart patterns. & most importantly (per our guru trader, Philip), "when in doubt stay out!" Just my take on it.

See you in the morning. I'm going to get some sleep tonight too.

Pips
  • #1,967
  • Mar 6, 2007 11:06pm Mar 6, 2007 11:06pm
Quoting smnitro1
Short eurjpy

4:30 Candle finished at 152.98 high

My stoploss was set at 153.00

Stopped out!!

WTF!!!!!!!
Hi smnitrol1,

Dire's advice was really good! I like to set my stop at the level + spread + 5 to 10 (depending on my mood, I add a random number in that range to spread...usually err on the higher side of life and move stop lower ASAP (which may not be such a good idea always, but that's another story).
  • #1,968
  • Mar 6, 2007 11:12pm Mar 6, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting smnitro1
No no, not condescending at all. Thanks for the advice.
Now that I look at it, I should have been a little further back. I was only 8 or so above the 21. The answer I'm looking for though is why was I stopped out? The high of the candle that did the stoppin was only 152.98. My stoploss was 153.00. I guess what I'm saying is, I had 2 pips left, Right?
Sorry, didn't read your question all the way. Depending on your broker, the dealing rates on the chart feed and your tradestation can vary by a few pips. If the feed is from your dealer, ask to have the trade audited and provide the records for review (they will probably tell you that the spread widened and you experienced a form of slippage). Make sure you have a screen shot of your chart, ticket number, time of trade, etc.

I have 2 different feeds, and sometimes they differ by 12 - 20 pips! Found that the "standard" feed is more accurate than the direct feed from broker. Odd..that's why I add the "random" number to my spread (and it makes me feel more invisible...ha!)
  • #1,969
  • Mar 7, 2007 2:11am Mar 7, 2007 2:11am
Hi All,

Is there anybody who tried Philip's system on Daily's. I gave it a go but got whipsawed just to often. Ever so often it happens where the MACD gives a buy signal, the following day a sell, the next day a buy, etc. Also it seems that the Moving Averages needs to be adjusted for the daily's. It will be interested to hear if anybody had some better experiences on the daily's.

Regards,
  • #1,970
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:52am Mar 7, 2007 3:52am
Hi evryone


Can we expect a bounce from zero on EUR GBP and a possible long run?

I attach the 4hr chart that show also a support on the 21 sma.
Also the 1hr chart show a possible bounce on the zero line and a support (even if a little far) on the 89 sma.

I'm new to this sistem so do not hesitate to attack my thinking.


Thanks

Kunz
Attached Images
  • #1,971
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:09am Mar 7, 2007 4:09am
Quoting pips4uandme
Smart and safe never lost the race

I Like your style....wait for the signals....then act.

Happy piping
Hi Pips,
It is 1 hr after the 4:00 AM candle (EST), and no MACD signal yet.I have been waiting for it in the cable, the Us/JP and the Euro/Us, Nothing yet. The market is flat!!!
I took a signal in the Us/Cad to the long side, at the 10:00 PM candle (rushed it because it had not formed completely) and got stopped.

So...I applied patience with the 1st three, and I am still waiting,and rushed on the latter...and lost!!!

Well....I deserved it: I broke my own rules!!!
  • #1,972
  • Mar 7, 2007 4:45am Mar 7, 2007 4:45am
Yawwn, Good morning, I thought I would get up and trade the 5 oclock EST 4 hr candle on the EUR OR GBP, but nooooooooooo. No clear signal yet. Yea, the signal will come when I am at work.

AJ
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #1,973
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:21am Mar 7, 2007 5:21am
according to the system there are NO good signals yet on all four top currency pairs. gotta wait for another 4 hours. so stay away for now, shaky ones
  • #1,974
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:31am Mar 7, 2007 5:31am
Quoting alcastro
Hi Pips,
It is 1 hr after the 4:00 AM candle (EST), and no MACD signal yet.I have been waiting for it in the cable, the Us/JP and the Euro/Us, Nothing yet. The market is flat!!!
I took a signal in the Us/Cad to the long side, at the 10:00 PM candle (rushed it because it had not formed completely) and got stopped.

So...I applied patience with the 1st three, and I am still waiting,and rushed on the latter...and lost!!!

Well....I deserved it: I broke my own rules!!!
Sorry to hear about the cad trade...can see it looks like trend continuation now...but it looks choppy too. Guess the next few days are going to be rough the MPC meeting (possible rate hike), ECB rate decision and non-farm payrolls. Don't worry, if we miss a signal here or there, we'll have thousands more to choose from!

Hope your Job is more fun today then this flat markt.
  • #1,975
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:32am Mar 7, 2007 5:32am
Quoting Pipsi cola
according to the system there are NO good signals yet on all four top currency pairs. gotta wait for another 4 hours. so stay away for now, shaky ones
Thanks for the great reminder!
  • #1,976
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:36am Mar 7, 2007 5:36am
Thanks for your analysis pips.... I was patient last night.

Smnitro, guess I missed your complete question as well. Pips is correct, depending if you short or long your broker may not "show" the spread at purchase or sell. When I short, the line that shows my order does not take spread into accord... Always have towatch that. My broker allows me to turn on the ask and bid lines to show the spread. Try that out. Helps me a lot... I had the same question a few months back and had the same thing happen


Quoting smnitro1
Short eurjpy

4:30 Candle finished at 152.98 high

My stoploss was set at 153.00

Stopped out!!

WTF!!!!!!!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,977
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:40am Mar 7, 2007 5:40am
Quoting AJspeed
Yawwn, Good morning, I thought I would get up and trade the 5 oclock EST 4 hr candle on the EUR OR GBP, but nooooooooooo. No clear signal yet. Yea, the signal will come when I am at work.

AJ
Hi AJ,

that is my course too. No signals during tradable hours this time!!! Would probably see them happen while I am at work too.
  • #1,978
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:41am Mar 7, 2007 5:41am
Quoting kunz78
Hi evryone


Can we expect a bounce from zero on EUR GBP and a possible long run?

I attach the 4hr chart that show also a support on the 21 sma.
Also the 1hr chart show a possible bounce on the zero line and a support (even if a little far) on the 89 sma.

I'm new to this sistem so do not hesitate to attack my thinking.


Thanks

Kunz


Know much time has passed since you posted your question. Looks like a possibility. watch the 1 hour candles and look for a confirmation of trend continuation on the MACD and a bounce off the 21. Wait for close of the 1 hour candle to verify TC.

This pair will most likely chop too today....since rate decisions are due tomorrow for both.

pips
  • #1,979
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:44am Mar 7, 2007 5:44am
Quoting pips4uandme
Sorry to hear about the cad trade...can see it looks like trend continuation now...but it looks choppy too. Guess the next few days are going to be rough the MPC meeting (possible rate hike), ECB rate decision and non-farm payrolls. Don't worry, if we miss a signal here or there, we'll have thousands more to choose from!

Hope your Job is more fun today then this flat markt.
Thanks Pips...the CAD loss was well deserved. That is why there is a system....and a set of rules. Phillip's system is simple and clear....and he said it clearly: "wait for the trade to come to you".

The news may make that happen. We'll see
  • #1,980
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:12am Mar 7, 2007 6:12am
I put that trade on and went to sleep, so did the trade. Either way I'm in, -4 right now, looks flatter than Paris Hilton.....
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