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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #140,981
  • Nov 22, 2008 6:10pm Nov 22, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lilmoe .. do not be so hard on the king ...lol

next they will be saying he was the first one that said it is going back to 165


i'm not being hard... it's a little friendly come back to all the BS i had to go through last week for calling a bottom (or at least a temporary one).... it's ok though, it happens every time i call for a top or bottom, days later everyone else follows.
  • #140,982
  • Nov 22, 2008 6:33pm Nov 22, 2008 6:33pm
The best advice I can give to the newbies is to first get the basics down before taking anyone style on this board...There are many ways to trade forex..It is only matter of practice and good MM.

I know many traders are defending their point of views...I respect many of the ELITE traders here for the short term and long term trades...I mainly focus on the big picture which is the daily charts...I believe without many views on this board there would be no way to improve on the repeated mistake many traders can't overcome...I have benefited from this board many times since I started trading GJ last year Jan. 07. If a bad call is made, review the trade and get over it..No one here can predict every move 100%..The market will go whatever direction it may want...Friday rally was so much a setup...Why would the president elected released the news on a friday? It only means that the news controls the PA of the DJ...I am sure many traders had got caught up in the hype of the falling GJ... It is better to follow the charts than to take many POV on this board..

Fundamentals are controlling the PA more now than before is why technical alone is not enough...

Remember always to lockin pips when in profits..

Peace




Quoting lilmoe
i'm glad everyone's bias is starting to change now i hate to see anyone losing money.

charts don't lie, and one must always stick to what he sees on the chart and yes karmo, the truth is hard to accept sometimes.
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  • #140,983
  • Nov 22, 2008 6:44pm Nov 22, 2008 6:44pm
Quoting rgitt05
The best advice I can give to the newbies is to first get the basics down before taking anyone style on this board...There are many ways to trade forex..It is only matter of practice and good MM.


Help me with a good place to start building my strategy
gj seems to hard for me and to volatile.

thank you
  • #140,984
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:18pm Nov 22, 2008 7:18pm
check your e-mail

Quoting kairos
Help me with a good place to start building my strategy
gj seems to hard for me and to volatile.

thank you
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  • #140,985
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:25pm Nov 22, 2008 7:25pm
Quoting rgitt05
The best advice I can give to the newbies is to first get the basics down before taking anyone style on this board...There are many ways to trade forex..It is only matter of practice and good MM.

I know many traders are defending their point of views...I respect many of the ELITE traders here for the short term and long term trades...I mainly focus on the big picture which is the daily charts...I believe without many views on this board there would be no way to improve on the repeated mistake many traders can't overcome...I have benefited from...

no one said the major trend is bullish, but a 1500-2000 pip pullback at least should be due. i will reevaluate when we get there, if a true reversal is forming. after that pullback, we should head back down. to new lows? who knows.
  • #140,986
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:40pm Nov 22, 2008 7:40pm
Hi Lilmoe,

I don't recall saying there is a major reversal on my post... However, the bias is still bearish based on the fundamentals overall.. You are right the pullback is due but many fundamentals are coming out next week like GBP rate decision and GDP.. I remembered last year Nov. 2007 PA GJ was awesome... I think I made over 5,000 pips straight on a swing trade going short...Anyway, I feel the same thing will happen again this year after the holidays "Thanksgiving Day"

This month is not over and the trend so far is bearish...

It would be nice to have pullback because I have my resistance marked.

I am enjoying your analysis as well the others on this board...

Keep up the good work!!!



Quoting lilmoe
no one said the major trend is bullish, but a 1500-2000 pip pullback at least should be due. i will reevaluate when we get there, if a true reversal is forming. after that pullback, we should head back down. to new lows? who knows.
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  • #140,987
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:41pm Nov 22, 2008 7:41pm
what happened is that i finally managed to wake up (no i wasn't drunk, i just worked like a dog for the last 2 months and didn't even know where my ass was). and then i looked at the charts.
good to be back .

Quoting lilmoe
i'm not sure what changed ur mind so suddenly, charts didn't change that much since ur last bearish post.... oh well.

at least now u see what i've been talking about.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #140,988
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:45pm Nov 22, 2008 7:45pm
Quoting rgitt05
check your e-mail

Is there any change that you could sent the e-mail again.
i had a problem with my e-mail

if that's not a problem

thank you
  • #140,989
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:53pm Nov 22, 2008 7:53pm
Quoting rgitt05
Hi Lilmoe,

I don't recall saying there is a major reversal on my post... However, the bias is still bearish based on the fundamentals overall.. You are right the pullback is due but many fundamentals are coming out next week like GBP rate decision and GDP.. I remembered last year Nov. 2007 PA GJ was awesome... I think I made over 5,000 pips straight on a swing trade going short...Anyway, I feel the same thing will happen again this year after the holidays "Thanksgiving Day"

This month is not over and the trend so far is bearish...

It would...
thanks, your analysis are great urself!

have a great weekend bro, and don't work too hard. try to relax, we have a very interesting week(s) ahead of us
  • #140,990
  • Nov 22, 2008 8:09pm Nov 22, 2008 8:09pm
Same to you Lilmoe..

This PA this weekend maybe tame until monday news..I did projected to pullback to 146 on my hourly chart...My analysis is not as technical as yours but I don't make many trades because I am a swing trader..I know DD are bad sometimes but I hedge my position and I make even more pips from the pullback..It easy for me to trade this way because I don't have to babysit my position too much.

Peace

Quoting lilmoe
thanks, your analysis are great urself!

have a great weekend bro, and don't work too hard. try to relax, we have a very interesting week(s) ahead of us
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  • #140,991
  • Edited Nov 23, 2008 4:05pm Nov 22, 2008 8:13pm | Edited Nov 23, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting Scrat
what happened is that i finally managed to wake up (no i wasn't drunk, i just worked like a dog for the last 2 months and didn't even know where my ass was). and then i looked at the charts.
good to be back .
welcome back scrat. i was wondering where the heck u were.

all we need now for our final confirmation is a close above that daily descending trendline. daily 50ema should be the target, maybe weekly gann? who knows

the dailies 2 weeks ago were overbought, which of course translates into a bearish HD, but the HD was not strong compared to that back in late september. we went out of the overbought state on that last test of 139, this should be really interesting because i'm starting to doubt we're going to form a bearish HD on the dailies if we reach daily 50ema. depends on the rising pattern of price. but hey, i don't want to get ahead of myself. i'll wait till and if we reach there.

something else worth mentioning, something u actually know. short/medium term fundies change to prove the charts correct. thinks are always cooking in the weekends. when and if we get the rally i'm anticipating, you'll see all these fundamental analysts come out and explain why we had this rally, and why the market needed a break. price fell almost 6000 pips since 197, things don't just keep falling and falling like there's no tomorrow, there are cycles that PA needs to respect. we might head back down afterwards and maybe we'll take out 139, but after getting me the best opportunity to short the crap out of it

have a good weekend bro.
  • #140,992
  • Edited 9:04pm Nov 22, 2008 8:52pm | Edited 9:04pm
4 hr chart and 1 hr chart (for close up look) for now. let's see if the tl gets violated and makes a higher high.
15 min chart already has made a higher high.
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  • #140,993
  • Edited 3:21am Nov 23, 2008 3:09am | Edited 3:21am
I see lots of talks about the pair & no doubt there is an uptrend yet it may break at any point 143.23 ,143.91 (61.8%) or evem 100% retracements at 147.90 to follow the downtrend again . There are bearish diversion in tf 5,15,h1,d1 and fast stoches in 15,h4,d1 turned down ,slow stoches h1 above all face down and lower tf almost finish facing UP.

so the uptrend will not be so easy to follow & risky .Bulls never worry I am always afraid of longs. I will do shorts at those breaks only till finally break to follow D wave down( if can reach at the top C ) ,perhaps enough for this week.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #140,994
  • Edited 9:23am Nov 23, 2008 4:19am | Edited 9:23am
(also posted on my thread)


ok everyone, i have a theory i want to share.

i want u guys to look at the charts back on friday the 10th of october when we first hit 166.

look very closely to the pattern we had. the bias at that time was pretty bearish, and everyone was loading shorts. i was one of those stubborn fellas that believed in a bounced and that 166 was a bottom.

on that very same day, we had a rally that started in asian session and ended when the euro session was closed. NY dragged the price down for a 61.8 fib retracement of that rally. LATER before NY close, price RALLIED exactly like we did 2 days ago (friday). same pattern don't u think?

if we do get an exact pattern, i'm expecting a 150-300 pip gap UP at market open. then the market should retrace back to close the gap and go even lower than the closing price on friday. Afterwords, we should see my anticipated 1500-2000 pip rally starting late asian session for 2-3 days.

yes i'm expecting lots of bulls monday through wednesday and maybe thursday, with late thursday and friday being retracement or sideways markets.

let's wait and see.
  • #140,995
  • Nov 23, 2008 4:27am Nov 23, 2008 4:27am
what you thing about my analyse
I am wait for your opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #140,996
  • Nov 23, 2008 5:32am Nov 23, 2008 5:32am
My GBP outlook for near-term ready and posted. Click ------>here <------
  • #140,997
  • Nov 23, 2008 5:54am Nov 23, 2008 5:54am
Quoting lilmoe
(also posted on my thread)


ok everyone, i have a theory i want to share.

i want u guys to look at the charts back on friday the 10th of october when we first hit 166.

look very closely to the patter we had. the bias at that time was pretty bearish, and everyone was loading shorts. i was one of those stubborn fellas that believed in a bounced and that 166 was a bottom.

on that very same day, we had a rally that started in asian session and ended when the euro session was closed. NY dragged the price down for a 61.8 fib retracement of...
are you thinking a gap down or gap up?
Before Forex I was tall, and clean shaven. Now I am an Ewok.
  • #140,998
  • Nov 23, 2008 6:05am Nov 23, 2008 6:05am
Quoting england33
are you thinking a gap down or gap up?
most probably up.
  • #140,999
  • Nov 23, 2008 7:06am Nov 23, 2008 7:06am
There is a holiday in Tokyo on Monday, but it might be a busy day for the FX market in any case. Officials from Citigroup, the Fed and Treasury have been meeting over the weekend in hopes of coming up with a plan to stabilize the troubled US banking giant. The Citigroup share price plunged as low as 3.05 on Friday and an announcement from Citigroup may come as early as Monday morning in Asia. If there is an announcement and the equity markets are pleased it will likely push up the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and the AUD/JPY in particular. If there are no solid developments on the Citigroup front we could see more volatility, which would favour the USD and JPY.
The key events during the European session will be the German IFO, EZ Industrial Orders and the UK Treasury pre-budget. Again it will be the reaction of the equity markets to those events that will determine currency direction.
There is plenty of US economic data out in the week ahead starting with US existing Home Sales on Monday. The markets are not overly focused on economic releases, as there is a general consensus that it will be weak. The most important event during the US session is likely to be the press conference by US President-elect Obama. If the markets are encouraged by the in-coming US President we could see Wall Street shrug off some of the economic bad news as it did on Friday when it was reported that NY Fed President Geithner would become Treasury Secretary
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  • #141,000
  • Nov 23, 2008 7:09am Nov 23, 2008 7:09am
There is a lot of speculation in the weekend press that there might be government rescue package for embattled US banking giant Citigroup as early as this weekend. Bloomberg reported that investors and analysts are saying that the government may have to step in to end the crisis after half the equity value was lost in three days, due to the fact that Citigroup is in the "too big to fail" category. Bloomberg reports that one option may be for the Fed and Treasury to create a special vehicle to purchase bad assets from Citi. The NY Times reports that officials have weighed several options including whether to replace Citigroup"s chief executive Pandit or sell all or part of the company. Other options discussed included a public endorsement from the government or a new financial lifeline.
According to the NY Times report, government officials said that the Treasury Department was considering whether to ask for the second half of the 700 BLN USD rescue fund approved by Congress in September. The report said that it was unclear whether any of that money would be used to make a cash infusion into Citigroup, which received 25 BLN from the government in October. A second financial rescue for banks might be difficult politically at a time that the struggling auto industry is being turned away in Washington
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