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  • #6,341
  • Nov 21, 2008 9:31pm Nov 21, 2008 9:31pm
WHC is from Water House Capital, but I think it's now BrocoTrader.
But the whc install file is floating around here somewhere.

Quoting jlmac27
Which broker are you going threw to get that platform.Mine has S&P NAS,metals...ect..but no futures,thanks again

MM is so vitally important as I'm finding out so much more. Personally I think this is the golden post that GW refers to. But alot of what SR has posted here is good info.
As with alot of other traders in this thread. I'd like to thank everyone who gives so freely of your time and energy to help those of us who keep trying to learn more and more each day. I for one have improved my trading skills, maybe not quite as good as some have but I'm improving day by day.

Have a great weekend everyone.
KC


Quoting seattlerust
Hi Wiz,...
  • #6,342
  • Nov 22, 2008 2:31am Nov 22, 2008 2:31am
Maybe an area to watch next week.
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  • #6,343
  • Nov 22, 2008 2:44am Nov 22, 2008 2:44am
Quoting seattlerust
GW

That is quite a compliment. I thank you much.

But now, you have really got me wondering??? What the heck did I say? You must tell me. Use a PM if you like.

Seattlerust
Seattle, having just gone through your posts I note you use ATR, what is this? I can only find something that says average true range, but this does not tie up against the numbers you post?

Additionally I wonder if GW was looking at your comments about trading in a range?
  • #6,344
  • Nov 22, 2008 2:57am Nov 22, 2008 2:57am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Seattle,

Your a genius or I'm a bonehead for never considering one of your vital tactics. I was looking through some of my past trades, both winners and losers. Something huge struck me one of your concepts accounted for almost all the nice winners and eliminated a decent amount of stop-outs. Thanks for your commentary with out it this idea would have never dawned on me. Readers of this thread read seattle's posts on this thread. In one of them there is pure gold. Its even more important then s&r. when you line up this concept with s&r its a...
So why don't you save us the headache and just tell us which post it was?

You talking about trading when a pair has exhausted its average daily range?
Time hides Nothing
  • #6,345
  • Nov 22, 2008 5:15am Nov 22, 2008 5:15am
Quoting CindyXXXX
So why don't you save us the headache and just tell us which post it was?

You talking about trading when a pair has exhausted its average daily range?
First thing I will address all this hub-ub with a few quotes.

"There's no short cuts to anywhere worth going"

"Well he said, the customers are bound to lose their money any how no matter what they buy, or how, or where, or when."

"Will succeed in many cases in choosing defensive positions of such an offensive nature from the strategic point of view."

"For if we merely take what obviously appears the line of least resistance, its obviousness will appeal to the opponent also; and this line may no longer be that of least resistance."

Hence his true aim is not so much to seek battle as to seek a strategic situation so advantageous that if it does not of it self produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is ure to acheive this."

"The purpose of strategy is to diminish the possibiltiy of resistance, and it seeks to fullfill this purpose by exploiting movement and surprise."



All of seattles posts are worth reading. A different post may have more meaning for a different person. If one looks more carefully at seattles posts they will realize that he is probably one of the best traders around here, and on this whole site, next to BRV. His take on the market is very mature.

What happened for me is that I had a moment of clarity when reading one of his posts. All these years I have knowledge of the markets but was never really able to co-ordinate all these facts into a unified whole. This lack of co-ordination did more harm than good. To give a small clue, I will be leaving my discretionary trading at the door. Im on the road to becoming a full-blown systematic quant trader that uses technical analysis to add a bit of precision to my trades. But the trade premise will be quantitive in nature.
  • #6,346
  • Nov 22, 2008 5:19am Nov 22, 2008 5:19am
Hello everybody, and thanks for nice thread and discussion, and my gratitude to BRV/Steve for generosity.

I thought I should contribute a little something that I find to be of value - weekly and monthly pivots.

As seen on the monthly pivot chart, November has been a journey from the monthly pivot to the first pivot support level, and the rate is now hovering around that - and even finished the week between it and next week's pivot 1.4920. All indicating that, in the absence of disrupting news, the last week of the month will be range bound around that level.

On a weekly basis, there is a similar pattern with the weekly pivots, and on the weekly chart you can see how they've serve as support and resistance on an intraday basis. Even caught yesterday's high to the pip.

I leave the rest to your research and judgement. Indicators attached, which behave a bit strangely around change of week/month, but just flip between time-frames, e.g M15 and H1, and you're back to normal.

Hope somebody finds it useful.

PS. Did you notice that the bottom in cable, 1.4557, is 61.8% retracement of the move from the January 85 bottom to the November 07 high? Should provide some support if re-tested.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable monthly pivot.jpg Size: 193 KB
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MonthlyPivot.mq4   5 KB | 791 downloads
File Type: mq4 WeeklyPivot.mq4   5 KB | 660 downloads
  • #6,347
  • Nov 22, 2008 5:20am Nov 22, 2008 5:20am
Quoting Guerrillawar
First thing I will address all this hub-ub with a few quotes.

"There's no short cuts to anywhere worth going"

"Well he said, the customers are bound to lose their money any how no matter what they buy, or how, or where, or when."

"Will succeed in many cases in choosing defensive positions of such an offensive nature from the strategic point of view."

[i]"For if we merely take what obviously appears the line of least resistance, its obviousness will appeal to the opponent also; and this line may no longer be that...
Sheesh - forget I asked! A simple yes or no would have been fine
Time hides Nothing
  • #6,348
  • Nov 22, 2008 12:10pm Nov 22, 2008 12:10pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Sheesh - forget I asked! A simple yes or no would have been fine
Cindy, kc8flq suggests that it might have been:


Quoting seattlerust
Hi Wiz,

There are numerous ways to manage trades and moving to break even after taking half ot the lots off is one. But, there are also a couple of ways to look at break even. Consider this as a possible tweak:

Assume that you are in a trade with 4 mini lots, initial stop of 40 PIPs, and you are up 20 PIPs. So you take a profit on two lots for $40. Now, look at break even as a zero loss AND a zero gain. Net zero. Thus, after taking your 20 PIP gain, move your stop from 40 PIPs to 20 PIPs. Now, if you get stopped out, you take a 2 lot loss against...
  • #6,349
  • Nov 22, 2008 9:58pm Nov 22, 2008 9:58pm
Verno,

Yes, ATR is Average True Range; sometimes also referred to as Average Daily Range. As I use it, it is a daily range. It amounts to the average of the daily range (daily high minus daily low) over some period of time. It is an indicator that is available on almost any trading platform and the period is settable.

One of my primary trading methods is to see price approaching the edge of a range, perhaps a daily or weekly range, or perhaps just an obvious range. Better on larger time frames, of course. If it is late in the session and price has exceeded its ATR then the probability is that price will not go much outside the range and will return to the range. This gives me a trading edge.

SR
  • #6,350
  • Nov 22, 2008 11:11pm Nov 22, 2008 11:11pm
Quoting seattlerust
Verno,

Yes, ATR is Average True Range; sometimes also referred to as Average Daily Range. As I use it, it is a daily range. It amounts to the average of the daily range (daily high minus daily low) over some period of time. It is an indicator that is available on almost any trading platform and the period is settable.

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]One of my primary trading methods is to see price approaching the edge of a range, perhaps a daily or weekly...
I've noticed that aswell Seattle thanks a lot...
Time hides Nothing
  • #6,351
  • Nov 23, 2008 4:47am Nov 23, 2008 4:47am
Quoting seattlerust
Verno,

Yes, ATR is Average True Range; sometimes also referred to as Average Daily Range. As I use it, it is a daily range. It amounts to the average of the daily range (daily high minus daily low) over some period of time. It is an indicator that is available on almost any trading platform and the period is settable.

[font=Times New Roman][size=3]One of my primary trading methods is to see price approaching the edge of a range, perhaps a daily or weekly...
Much obliged Seattle, I take it that when looking at an hourly chart you use 24 as a period and then tweak your other timeframes?

I will do some reading on the indicator.
  • #6,352
  • Nov 23, 2008 11:59am Nov 23, 2008 11:59am
If I recall correctly about the ATR, using it on the hourly chart will only give you the hourly ranges.

So if you were to use 24 periods on the hourly ATR, you'd be getting the average ATR of the preceding 24 hourly moves, and not the ATR of the day, which is what you'd be looking for. In essence, on something like the EURUSD, the H1 ATR would be something like .0030 (representing the range of an hourly bar as about 30 pips) whereas you'd want the daily range which would probably be something close to .0150 (or 150 pips).
  • #6,353
  • Nov 23, 2008 1:36pm Nov 23, 2008 1:36pm
Also, was browsing through some reports, and came across Saxobank's from Friday.

Thought one section of it might be interesting given the past few weeks or so.

Quote
If feels like the currencies are decoupling somewhat from moves in equity markets after observing yesterday's action, in which JPY crosses were the only reliable movers in synch with equities - and even the JPY crosses didn't hold new lows convincingly. It feels like the market may be putting out feelers for a new theme and we turn a bit more cautious here until/unless the technical breakouts prove what the markets want to do. We find it significant that the tremendous input from government bond markets and equties (Dow slicing through 8000, etc...)...
  • #6,354
  • Nov 23, 2008 4:09pm Nov 23, 2008 4:09pm
I should have been more clear. I only use ATR on a daily time-frame. I am only interested in how far, on the average, price will move in one days time.

Since I only trade the NY session, I am interested in where price is apt to go by the end of that session, or shortly thereafter, based on movement which started when London opened. Once the NY session closes, volatility is slow until the Asian session opens a couple of hours later, and the Asian session is much slower than the European or the New York sessions. The best times are when the NY and European are both open.
  • #6,355
  • Nov 23, 2008 6:53pm Nov 23, 2008 6:53pm
Right, basically use the ATR only on daily because no matter how many periods you set it for on the hourly chart, it's still just showing the average of the hourly moves, which is probably not all that statistically significant in terms of S&R, but of course could be useful in other ways.

I think it's a valid concept. I don't personally use the ATR, but I do often look for reversals when moves seem overextended compared to what they generally move in a day. Then it becomes a matter of entering a trade with the lowest possible drawdown, which is where S&R comes into play.
  • #6,356
  • Nov 23, 2008 10:55pm Nov 23, 2008 10:55pm
Hi thread,

does eur/usd look ripe for a short?

Your thoughts are appreciated.

chart to follow soon
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,357
  • Nov 23, 2008 11:02pm Nov 23, 2008 11:02pm
Yeah, I saw that setup, I didn't take it, but I think it might be good for a good 40 pips or so.
  • #6,358
  • Nov 24, 2008 1:15am Nov 24, 2008 1:15am
I have my eye on this at the moment...
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  • #6,359
  • Nov 24, 2008 1:29am Nov 24, 2008 1:29am
OK guys, since we learned to write down our daily plan, I decided to take the risk and share it with you. Here are my 2 cents...
Your comments are highly appreciated. Be gentle with me .

Equities:
Since government gave citigroup 306$ billion $ guarantee, it seems that equities will rise today. The American car industry is also on the way to get help. And finally, the US federal is going to flood the markets with dollars. All the info is from this morning (European time) Blomberg.
Do not forget the Japanese market is of today due to the holidays.

I check all majors but I mark only the ones that I trade:

E/U - Support 1.2566 (confluence with 38.2% daily fibo).
1.2513 (confluence with 61.8% daily fibo, and 23.6% fibo from high 19.11).
1.2471 ((confluence with 76.4.2% daily fibo)
resistance - 1.2736, beyond TL
1.2800

G/U - Support 1.4837 (confluence with 23.6% fibo from high 19.11). Also was a bucket. miss that one
1.4765
1.4710
resistance - 1.4689 also was a bucket...
1.5000, beyond TL

E/J - Support 119.54
118.50
117.60 (confluence with 23.6% fibo daily high. exact to the pip). Also bucket.
resistance - 121.15. History. Or 121.44 latest high.
122.49

USDCAD the only one that made a gap and cloesed it after 90 minutes. Not to clear to analyze today as it jumped so much lately. Help needed.
Support 1.2553 (confluence with 61.8% fibo from low 19.11)

That is it.
Hope I helped or provoked some thoughts.
  • #6,360
  • Edited 5:29am Nov 24, 2008 2:08am | Edited 5:29am
Hi Guys

I've been trading for a couple of years using TLs, Fibonacci, and S/R so hopefully I'll be able to add some value to this thread.

Suspected pivot points will be posted soon, don't be afraid to question or criticise my charts - it's what we're all here for.

What are your target price pivot points(PPP) for today?

RC
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