yen crosses and aussie look like an attractive buy at those lower values.
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- #6,304
- Nov 21, 2008 6:39am Nov 21, 2008 6:39am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,459 Posts
What a weird day today. Early buy stops triggered across the board on some of these pairs.......I think the part that shocked me the most was GBP/USD breaking through 1.5000. Didn't envision it going that high originally. I thought sells there were going to keep it at bay.
Euro made a good run when it broke through the blocked traffic at 1.2550. You can tell where these things are so easily sometimes, othertimes not. I'm guilty of poor judgement today and getting short too early on a break like that up at the 1.2600 area. But oh well.
If anyone is wondering where I've been I've just been concentrating on work alot lately and getting everything settled over here. This week is not going on my favorites list. But what must be done, must be done.
S&P futures are doing the usual selloff after bouncing off of 784 resistance here. I'm looking for a break of that for moves higher and watching yen closely. After 10am est all bets are off in terms of option expiries today but there might be some weird movement leading up till then.
GW was taling last week about a decoupling out there in terms of equity correlation to dollar purchases. Its been a strange week in terms of this and there have even been rumors about sovereigns stepping in and buying to curb instability of spot rates. We're not getting the pull down on GBP, EUR, etc, that we used to when we saw similar moves in the index.
We're at the point where we're seeing people talking about deflation on the US side, with the possibility of the Fed lowering rates to zero (just one opinion, I dont agree with it for the time being though) where Europe and GB, even with deeper cuts, will still stand tall against the dollar in terms of rates.
Even with EUR pushing back towards lows yesterday, things are still being 'curbed' a bit in terms of these moves relative to the index. But bottom line people will still need to buy dollars if they're selling hedge currencies on any equities or other foreign investments, so unless we're talking trend reversal in terms of the stock market, its unlikely that EUR and GBP are going to get a massive push to the upside.
But who knows. All it takes is a couple days and GBP is down to 1.4000. Right now we could just be in consolidation, with a softer creep down further in the weeks ahead. My opinion is to still look for shorts on these pairs in general. Overall pessimism is still weighing heavily out there and its going to take a serious sh*& ton of money to turn this thing around.
Consumers need to start buying again, sparking purchases in investments, higher cpi, etc. Until that happens, its unlikely we'll see any major trend reversal. I'm personally looking to start buying after the new year, when things are settled, people get over the fact of a horrible holiday shopping season with all numbers reported and Obama gets in control. Right now our President has basically proclaimed a freeze on a good chunk of funds so the new administration can start from scratch, which I dont think is actually such a bad idea.
Money is out there, it just needs to start spending again. People are scared and running for their lives and closing up their wallets, even if they can afford not to because all of their relatives and people on their street are. Its coming, and I want to make a gazillion dollars when it does. But thats just me
.
Euro made a good run when it broke through the blocked traffic at 1.2550. You can tell where these things are so easily sometimes, othertimes not. I'm guilty of poor judgement today and getting short too early on a break like that up at the 1.2600 area. But oh well.
If anyone is wondering where I've been I've just been concentrating on work alot lately and getting everything settled over here. This week is not going on my favorites list. But what must be done, must be done.
S&P futures are doing the usual selloff after bouncing off of 784 resistance here. I'm looking for a break of that for moves higher and watching yen closely. After 10am est all bets are off in terms of option expiries today but there might be some weird movement leading up till then.
GW was taling last week about a decoupling out there in terms of equity correlation to dollar purchases. Its been a strange week in terms of this and there have even been rumors about sovereigns stepping in and buying to curb instability of spot rates. We're not getting the pull down on GBP, EUR, etc, that we used to when we saw similar moves in the index.
We're at the point where we're seeing people talking about deflation on the US side, with the possibility of the Fed lowering rates to zero (just one opinion, I dont agree with it for the time being though) where Europe and GB, even with deeper cuts, will still stand tall against the dollar in terms of rates.
Even with EUR pushing back towards lows yesterday, things are still being 'curbed' a bit in terms of these moves relative to the index. But bottom line people will still need to buy dollars if they're selling hedge currencies on any equities or other foreign investments, so unless we're talking trend reversal in terms of the stock market, its unlikely that EUR and GBP are going to get a massive push to the upside.
But who knows. All it takes is a couple days and GBP is down to 1.4000. Right now we could just be in consolidation, with a softer creep down further in the weeks ahead. My opinion is to still look for shorts on these pairs in general. Overall pessimism is still weighing heavily out there and its going to take a serious sh*& ton of money to turn this thing around.
Consumers need to start buying again, sparking purchases in investments, higher cpi, etc. Until that happens, its unlikely we'll see any major trend reversal. I'm personally looking to start buying after the new year, when things are settled, people get over the fact of a horrible holiday shopping season with all numbers reported and Obama gets in control. Right now our President has basically proclaimed a freeze on a good chunk of funds so the new administration can start from scratch, which I dont think is actually such a bad idea.
Money is out there, it just needs to start spending again. People are scared and running for their lives and closing up their wallets, even if they can afford not to because all of their relatives and people on their street are. Its coming, and I want to make a gazillion dollars when it does. But thats just me
.
When euro turned same time as eujap, I saw how candle had come down to my 971 line on pound and was turning. Hit line so cleanly I though goodo, see if we have lift off. I like the 083 line and if I get close will have a nice bunch of pips. . Do you see how euro hit right on 609 again. Would not have taken it again yet though because eurjpy is still uppish and they have gone together all day. Even though eurusd looked like it was coming down I was hesitant because of that reason. just a touch in profit but will see how it goes.Ignore the diagonals I havent altered on that chart. caught out. hehe
- #6,316
- Nov 21, 2008 7:18am Nov 21, 2008 7:18am
- Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Trader | 1,459 Posts
Good to see you back,
I was wondering if you could tell me what S&P futures chart you are looking at?Thanks again!
This WHC trader platform has them for free - this is ES_CONT listed.....
Hey GW. arent you glad you are not in euro for sell now huh. eurjpy is making a strong up and in correlation. 680 before I look at sell on that but will check japs and chf before. chf coming through my 1.2192 line. If it drops I will wait till 1.2085 and look at buy. Really dont like selling usd yet. would rather wait for dip. just my opinion.
- #6,318
- Nov 21, 2008 7:39am Nov 21, 2008 7:39am
Hi and thanks....good to be here
This WHC trader platform has them for free - this is ES_CONT listed.....
