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  • #6,261
  • Nov 20, 2008 4:52pm Nov 20, 2008 4:52pm
Quoting Tori
Hi Everyone. Gosh, I got up this morning and was shocked to see some of my levels hit right to the pip. I thought it may have sounded a bit bold to warn that the usdcad might hit 1.2977 but there it was. Must have been a hairy night over there. I wouldnt even jump on a sell there just yet either. It will have to hang around there for a while.
When are you thinking USDCAD will take a dive? I'm thinking around 1.3013.
  • #6,262
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:04pm Nov 20, 2008 5:04pm
Hi Libb. I reckon that is a good level, but I would want to see it taking sideways action for a while on hourly chart. If it goes through here cleanly I dont think it will stop till 1.3272. I would normally be thinking nice drop from where it is, and then buy again at 691, but the news is so bad out there and I think that would mess with market to a greater extent than normal supply and demand. I have real reservations about selling us dollar lightly, yet I wouldnt want to buy it up so high either. My main thought is to watch later today because it is Friday, and some great announcement could come out before weekend saying car makers found heaps of dollars under a bush, and then off they all go again. It is tough to know. I reckon just keep watching till you feel sure it is exhausted. The higher it goes today, the happier I will be. Less room to go up, and more chance of at least some drop. I expect all sideways action for some hours after the movement of last couple of days. This might be a chance to practice the lesson of patience.
  • #6,263
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:18pm Nov 20, 2008 5:18pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 14 KB

Just one other small observation on usdcad. It is forming a flag, or rising wedge pattern. I will be watching for next 2 candles especially on 30 min. This happens a lot and then price spikes up and that could be where it drops from. Unless it breaks wedge it will bother me. I reckon this area is decisive because it is major resistance and diagonal as well as wedge hit this area in next hour.
  • #6,264
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:20pm Nov 20, 2008 5:20pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 14 KB


just added diagonal.
  • #6,265
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:30pm Nov 20, 2008 5:30pm
Thanks Tori. I always learn something new to consider before entering a trade when you write your thoughts out.
  • #6,266
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:36pm Nov 20, 2008 5:36pm
I really like USDCAD short if oil and equities can muster some strength. If this happen, will be looking to short past 1.2940 after seeing a clean break.
  • #6,267
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:57pm Nov 20, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting smittens4212
I really like USDCAD short if oil and equities can muster some strength. If this happen, will be looking to short past 1.2940 after seeing a clean break.
I reckon that is good entry level too. Would have broken diagonal trend, support at 940, now just to get a rise in oil. Do you see any improvement in that area.
  • #6,268
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:05pm Nov 20, 2008 6:05pm
Hi Smittens. Just had to say that I saw you sticking to guns about technical breakouts and fundamentals. Cant recall who with, but it was good discussion.
  • #6,269
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:20pm Nov 20, 2008 6:20pm
Quoting libb
Thanks Tori. I always learn something new to consider before entering a trade when you write your thoughts out.
Thanks Libb. I find I learn so much more by thinking out loud. When you write what you think you keep precision because to write about complicated scenarios is far too difficult. If I cant explain myself clearly, then I know I dont understand what I am trying to talk about, and so therefore, stop and look again. I could kick myself because said aud was going up and didnt take it. was watching eur from 440 to 513 and didnt get that either. only got profit on eurjpy which I did take. Gosh if you look at the lines they are everywhere. eurchf bounced off 15225 as well. just watch usdcad at 920 where other 2 drops have bounced before getting in I think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,270
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:39pm Nov 20, 2008 6:39pm
got a few of my reference points up here if they are of any interest. My plan, if all goes well, is to target 691 then 540. As I pass each line down I will shift TP to higher side of line, hopefully wont get hit when it stalls, and follow it down. That way if I have good profit already safe I wont feel nervous if it jumps around for a while. Everyone has diff ideas, that is just mine. It leaves me free to look somewhere else if an opportunity comes up. Just noticed 920 sticking. amazing stuff.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #6,271
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:44pm Nov 20, 2008 6:44pm
What's your plan on entering when it breaks 1.2920? I know that some breakouts like to take a quick dive, then come back up again to the line, then take a dive from there. Hope that makes sense.
  • #6,272
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:56pm Nov 20, 2008 6:56pm
Quoting libb
What's your plan on entering when it breaks 1.2920? I know that some breakouts like to take a quick dive, then come back up again to the line, then take a dive from there. Hope that makes sense.
If it doesnt show much interest in going back up, and just hangs around here, then I will go in just under 920.
  • #6,273
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:56pm Nov 20, 2008 6:56pm
For the record I didn't trade that break of 1.2940. The spread on my broker was over 20 at the time it broke. That is soooooo weak. It's still 16 right now, and hasn't really gotten any lower than 6.

Looks like I'll be holding out for trades much later in the night/early Euro session, because I'm not liking any levels on the other pairs. I liked that USDCAD level too, oh well.

Edit: Of course, as I typed that, the spread lowered to 3... eyeing that 1.2920 level with you, Tori.
  • #6,274
  • Nov 20, 2008 7:04pm Nov 20, 2008 7:04pm
Quoting smittens4212
For the record I didn't trade that break of 1.2940. The spread on my broker was over 20 at the time it broke. That is soooooo weak. It's still 16 right now, and hasn't really gotten any lower than 6.

Looks like I'll be holding out for trades much later in the night/early Euro session, because I'm not liking any levels on the other pairs. I liked that USDCAD level too, oh well.

Edit: Of course, as I typed that, the spread lowered to 3... eyeing that 1.2920 level with you, Tori.
Then maybe the high brokerage was fortuitous because it would have been annoying you by now huh. I have been caught like that, pressed the button and then gasped for air. sucks.
  • #6,275
  • Nov 20, 2008 7:10pm Nov 20, 2008 7:10pm
What broker do you have smittens?
  • #6,276
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:08pm Nov 20, 2008 8:08pm
Okay Libb. Patience paid off. Look how it stalls at 862. If it goes through here okay I will shift stop so no pain. I am looking for a bit further down. Do you have your game plan worked out.
  • #6,277
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:12pm Nov 20, 2008 8:12pm
Dive baby dive! Well I had a small lot way up at 1.2969 that I closed when it touched 1.2862. I will also place stop loss a little above 1.2862 if it dives further. Next goal is 1.2788, or 1.2691, depending how it reacts to 2788.
  • #6,278
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:15pm Nov 20, 2008 8:15pm
Goodo. Gee I am watching aussie. bounced off my line, said where it was going, and slowly all day it has climbed. No issues like this one going nowhere. If it hits 250 I will cry I think.

I wont put stop down until next five min candles opens. Just to get a feel if it will go again.
  • #6,279
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:21pm Nov 20, 2008 8:21pm
1.2500 seems possible! It did that run yesterday!

Where are you putting your new stop loss? I was looking at 1.2892..
  • #6,280
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:28pm Nov 20, 2008 8:28pm
Quoting libb
1.2500 seems possible! It did that run yesterday!

Where are you putting your new stop loss? I was looking at 1.2892..
I put it in at 875. when next red 5 min opens lower I will bring it down to just couple pips over line. I think will stumble at 788 but we can wait, and 540 is my first real hiccup after that. If went under there 441 is main area. Just follow each line down. They are small hiccups some of them but a good guide and will keep profit safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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