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  • #6,981
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:03am Nov 20, 2008 8:03am
Took a short on GU, up about 11 pips, looking to short on EU eventually as well. I may find a trade on USD/CHF aswell.

Good Luck.
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,982
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:06am Nov 20, 2008 8:06am
Quoting Patrino
Hi

To any FIB experts out-there, or anyone that can help.


I usually use reversal pattern breakouts for entry but now im looking at using the fibs to further pinpoint a better entry. Well in the attachment picture you will see this mornings EURGBP formation off of expected support. (On 15min tf) 5M TF used for fib candle analysis.

I entered long once after a 12345 reversal that arrived quickly and my second entry was based on the fibs retracing to the 50% and then giving me a piercing pattern followed by a new high. This at the time i thought...

I'm not an expert by any means but I will try to answer best of my ability.

Based of what I learned from Bo here on this thread I know he will tell you not to look at anything less than 1hr TF.Reason for that is too much noise and false moves.Your plan seams to be solid but truth is it depends how you play it with the stops.If I apply my strategy on the 1hr chart after the first entry I will probably follow the mkt with a stop below the low of the last candle which means I get stopped out as well.After the whipsaw it looks mkt is in range for the day so I will attempt the second entry which will generate some profit.But the logical stop in this actually is below of the lowest low .Of course we take here more risk .Mkt was slightly down for the last couple of days so this is a trade in a range mkt I look to take qiuck profits and I will keep tight stops .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp nov 20.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #6,983
  • Nov 20, 2008 9:31am Nov 20, 2008 9:31am
My short on GU landed me 101 pips, good trade. Right now I am short on EU, and long on USD/CHF, EU is profiting at 20 pips and the long trade is down abotu a 1 pip, lets hope price keeps moving in favour of USD. If it doesn't move much by 11 or 12, I'll just close and be happy with what I made.

Good Luck.
TheLegace.
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,984
  • Nov 20, 2008 10:24am Nov 20, 2008 10:24am
hello house,happy you guys made lots of pips today.THE LEGACE,where you been all this while?? good to see you back...and sherm,thanks for your wonderful advice, i will keep you posted on my findings and new methods as regards trendlines..though i use trendlines a lot before when i was using my former method and i used to have a friend who uses only trendlines but on daily,8 hours and 4 hour charts and the guy is making cool money.anyway,let me pop in and take my own share of the pips.

happy pips taking
  • #6,985
  • Nov 20, 2008 10:37am Nov 20, 2008 10:37am
Well although the GU trade went well, I still lost about 30 pips from consolidation thats now going on EU and UC, I should have realized that price was only going to stop at low because of the time of day, I could have had about total 150 pips, but lesson learned.

bjumping I just needed a break from forex for a while, so I took a little one. But I have back now and better than ever.

Good Luck.
TheLegace.
"If voting changed anything, they'd make it illegal" - Emma Goldman
  • #6,986
  • Nov 20, 2008 11:48am Nov 20, 2008 11:48am
hey THE LEGACE,its good to see you are doing well.i lost 30 pips just now on a short on usdjpy,though i envisaged it was going to buy,i just risked the trade but anyway, i made 38 pips on usdcad and i used the same lot and it was a short too...so i am +8 pips up.Now i am going to be more careful, i think i am allowing my emotions to rule over me.anyway,i am still here and i am sure will still make some more pips.

happy pips taking
  • #6,987
  • Nov 20, 2008 11:57am Nov 20, 2008 11:57am
Quoting bjpumping
hey THE LEGACE,its good to see you are doing well.i lost 30 pips just now on a short on usdjpy,though i envisaged it was going to buy,i just risked the trade but anyway, i made 38 pips on usdcad and i used the same lot and it was a short too...so i am +8 pips up.Now i am going to be more careful, i think i am allowing my emotions to rule over me.anyway,i am still here and i am sure will still make some more pips.

happy pips taking
Try and stay away from your charts at this time of the day...the volume decreases and your odds decreases ....trade when the stakes are high if your going to trade intraday charts being the 1 hour timeframe....let the market come to you not the opposite...keep
  • #6,988
  • Nov 20, 2008 1:26pm Nov 20, 2008 1:26pm
Here is my short on UJ. From the 1hr you can see that uj tried to pullback two times, but made new low on each attempt, then finally on 94.28 we made a hard low, and got a descent bounce close to 61.8% of its move. I took my short and put my stop slighty above the 50sma at 96.39
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.JPG Size: 186 KB
  • #6,989
  • Nov 20, 2008 1:38pm Nov 20, 2008 1:38pm
And here is my long on EUR/GBP taken yesterday, notice the yellow fib on the 4hr chart. Got a bounce right at 38.2, then i looked for an entry off the 1hr. target is 8531. On the 1hr, the pink circle is an area where I might add to my position, and get ready for the next move up later tonight....but will most likely wait for the open, because price is choppy in the off hrs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.JPG Size: 213 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp2.JPG Size: 240 KB
  • #6,990
  • Nov 20, 2008 1:46pm Nov 20, 2008 1:46pm
usd/jpy on the 4hr. Rough seas ahead near 94.58, then hopefully a free fall from there

as of this post....
up 81 pips on EG
up 96 on UJ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.JPG Size: 209 KB
  • #6,991
  • Nov 20, 2008 2:41pm Nov 20, 2008 2:41pm
Quoting big_pipin
usd/jpy on the 4hr. Rough seas ahead near 94.58, then hopefully a free fall from there

as of this post....
up 81 pips on EG
up 96 on UJ
I still have half on that EG. Going to go for 8550.
  • #6,992
  • Nov 20, 2008 2:58pm Nov 20, 2008 2:58pm
Quoting misterboy
I still have half on that EG. Going to go for 8550.
did you grab any uj short?
  • #6,993
  • Nov 20, 2008 2:59pm Nov 20, 2008 2:59pm
thanks sherm for your advice once again...funny enough,i discovered that i make the best of my trades trading after us open and till the end of it...most of the times i avoid news releases,hence my staying till this time of the day before coming online to trade.

anyway, i just closed a short on gbpusd with +47 pips...i was thinking of going short on usdjpy as well,but i did not see the move on time and i did not want to enter the trade midway.

anyway,thanks again sherm for your advice and everybody out there.i will be trading earlier from 1300 gmt after the news release.

goodnight and to all in the house

happy pips taking
  • #6,994
  • Nov 20, 2008 3:19pm Nov 20, 2008 3:19pm
Taking money off the table
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_1hr_nov_19th_20th.JPG Size: 168 KB
  • #6,995
  • Nov 20, 2008 3:52pm Nov 20, 2008 3:52pm
Quoting big_pipin
did you grab any uj short?
Nope. Unfortunately didn't see UJ at all

but its alright ...theres always a next time
  • #6,996
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:31pm Nov 20, 2008 8:31pm
Quoting misterboy
Nope. Unfortunately didn't see UJ at all

but its alright ...theres always a next time
still holding? i got stopped out because i moved my stop up..took 77 pips, now got back in at 8445 with tight stop
  • #6,997
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:58pm Nov 20, 2008 8:58pm
Bo How Looks Me Charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bobokus123.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #6,998
  • Nov 20, 2008 9:06pm Nov 20, 2008 9:06pm
Quoting speedarad
I'm not an expert by any means but I will try to answer best of my ability.

Based of what I learned from Bo here on this thread I know he will tell you not to look at anything less than 1hr TF.Reason for that is too much noise and false moves.Your plan seams to be solid but truth is it depends how you play it with the stops.If I apply my strategy on the 1hr chart after the first entry I will probably follow the mkt with a stop below the low of the last candle which means I get stopped out as well.After the whipsaw it looks mkt is in range for...
Thanks for your help.
Will be tough for me not to look at the 15min and the 5min to be honest.
I see your point about the 1hr though it does make things less complicated, but wont an entry from a 1hr new-high candle have a sl much greater than that of a 5min piercing+new high candle.
Eitherway, your right that the logical sl should be below the lowest low to avoid these problems.

Im guessing that as you use the 1hr new highs for entrys that you would use the same rules in a breakout failure, whereby the 61.8fib supp is broken and then a new 1hr close at new lows would qualify a failed breakout reversal. Am i correct in this assumption?
Again, i would be looking for a 5/15min Brk-retest for a failure, but now i think about it a new low in the hour candle very likely looks like a brk-retest-continue in the 15min anyway. hmm same-thing...
  • #6,999
  • Nov 20, 2008 10:09pm Nov 20, 2008 10:09pm
Quoting big_pipin
still holding? i got stopped out because i moved my stop up..took 77 pips, now got back in at 8445 with tight stop
I closed it all for about 100-110 pips . Just got impatient like always as it was really damn slow. Its still slow like a turtle...maybe I should've left it alone....but I think it will eventually go to 8550. Will wait and watch
  • #7,000
  • Nov 21, 2008 6:16am Nov 21, 2008 6:16am
where is bobokus?
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