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  • #6,221
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:03am Nov 20, 2008 5:03am
Quoting smittens4212
... As for what I'm watching in the chart... it's difficult to say. In a situation like this, where we had pretty big moves, I'd be first looking for the pair to slow down a bit. Usually I'll look at the 5 or 15M chart to see what the price action is showing. If price is approaching a support level I've identified, and it's slowing down (basically if it's approaching support, ideally you'd see a sort of exponential decrease), that's a very good sign. Then, when price is very close to the level, I zoom down to the 1 or 5M chart to see what, if any,...
Thank you very much, Smittens. That was very helpful! Your thorough explanations are very much appreciated.

Regards.
  • #6,222
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:05am Nov 20, 2008 5:05am
Hi
How are you all? I wanted to short USD/CHF could anybody extend insight on this regard?
Insight would be highly appreciated
BANDA333
  • #6,223
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:21am Nov 20, 2008 5:21am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I have one area 1.2691 for possible sell but have it in white because strongest area is 1.2977. I will not touch sell on this unless it goes up near there unless usd is getting weak across board because it just keeps keeping on. Others would know reaction, but read today that car industry so bad in America that there is now more risk aversion coming into market and more buying of us treasuries. I saw the figures for losses and unemployment and it is staggering. Unless I get a clear sell from there I might prefer to wait for a buy at 1.2007. All in all, this is off my list for the short term
  • #6,224
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:30am Nov 20, 2008 5:30am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is my interest for sell on chf. 12454 if again it looks like weakening and I guess you could say it is the top of a bucket. 12785 would be more exciting for me though. If it moves like last night then that could come sooner than later huh. What a wild ride that was.
  • #6,225
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:39am Nov 20, 2008 5:39am
Just a thought, instead of selling usdchf, you could look at a buy off 1.2192 when it drops down a little. Unless GW comes on and tells us the dollar is falling, this could go up to the 450 area.
  • #6,226
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:43am Nov 20, 2008 5:43am
Quoting Tori
Just a thought, instead of selling usdchf, you could look at a buy off 1.2192 when it drops down a little. Unless GW comes on and tells us the dollar is falling, this could go up to the 450 area.

I'm short when price breaks a legitimate channel on the topside and falters it almost always comes to test the lower part of the channel. This is a longer term hold. You could probably make all sorts of trades in between however.
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  • #6,227
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:43am Nov 20, 2008 5:43am
For those who are looking for a short here, note that the Swiss Central Bank just cut their interest rates a very surprising 100 bp overnight. That will weaken the swissy realtive to the USD and we are seeing the results in the strength of this pair. On top of that, we are still seeing flight to the USD as the world economy tanks. Be careful out here.
  • #6,228
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:56am Nov 20, 2008 5:56am
Quoting seattlerust
For those who are looking for a short here, note that the Swiss Central Bank just cut their interest rates a very surprising 100 bp overnight. That will weaken the swissy realtive to the USD and we are seeing the results in the strength of this pair. On top of that, we are still seeing flight to the USD as the world economy tanks. Be careful out here.
That is how I feel too. The claims are highest in some 26 yrs, car industry cooked, and fear taking hold again. The worse things get the higher the dollar goes, and the stronger the japs. Expect aussie to go down to 6000 again possibly too. It and nzd really get hammered when there is fear. Plus the more fear, the less people in the market, and the more volatile. We saw that last night. I am on the sidelines for a while afraid.. I am going to be really selective.
  • #6,229
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:02am Nov 20, 2008 6:02am
Hey Sherm, I think thats considered discouraging inexperienced traders to ask questions. It's one thing to answer and get them to think in terms of how the markets reacting, but to say it means it shouldn't be traded if a question arises on the situation? Where would you be if you hadn't asked all those questions you've asked? Food for thought

Happy Pippin' All
KC

Quoting Shermenator
to many swings have taken place after that meaning mostly many traders have removed their attention from it...meaning that less limit orders are there....second simply because you are asking the question on it that means it should not be traded. If its not clear that mean not many limits orders will be found.
  • #6,230
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:20am Nov 20, 2008 6:20am
Quoting libb
Did you short at 1.2794?
Hi Libb, Yes I had a Sell Limit order sitting there.

MG
  • #6,231
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:29am Nov 20, 2008 6:29am
Hi GW
Care to share more on your old and simple method? I always think it's good to keep extra tools in the toolbox, especially when they're simple. Feel free to PM me if you think it'll clutter the thread.

Happy Pippin'
KC

PS- Congrats on the job

Quoting Guerrillawar
bought eur/jpy on my old and simple methods.
  • #6,232
  • Nov 20, 2008 6:36am Nov 20, 2008 6:36am
Quoting kc8flq
Hi GW
Care to share more on your old and simple method? I always think it's good to keep extra tools in the toolbox, especially when they're simple. Feel free to PM me if you think it'll clutter the thread.

Happy Pippin'
KC

PS- Congrats on the job
that eur/jpy trade went bad. I got stopped out for a loss of 30 pips. luckily my usd/chf short trade more than offset it. I closed that on the test of support
  • #6,233
  • Nov 20, 2008 7:24am Nov 20, 2008 7:24am
Quoting kc8flq
Hey Sherm, I think thats considered discouraging inexperienced traders to ask questions. It's one thing to answer and get them to think in terms of how the markets reacting, but to say it means it shouldn't be traded if a question arises on the situation? Where would you be if you hadn't asked all those questions you've asked? Food for thought

Happy Pippin' All
KC
Bud i came from the perspective that if the S/R looks questionable it might be because the level is not clear enough and not perceived as important from the majority. So if there's uncertainty about the level it might be because the level really is uncertain and a trade from it would be more risky. Sorry if it was percieved the wrong way
  • #6,234
  • Edited 7:46am Nov 20, 2008 7:41am | Edited 7:46am
Quoting Shermenator
Bud i came from the perspective that if the S/R looks questionable it might be because the level is not clear enough and not perceived as important from the majority. So if there's uncertainty about the level it might be because the level really is uncertain and a trade from it would be more risky. Sorry if it was percieved the wrong way
it was probably the right call by you. I'm in it and on the verge of getting stopped out. I'm hoping for one of those instant 100 pt miracle rallies in the s&p. That's how I know I'm most likely screwed. Never ever hope in trading. my god in two minutes after I write this thing that miracle rally may be in the works. 25pts so far only 75 pts more.
  • #6,235
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:22am Nov 20, 2008 8:22am
Where's that BRV lately?
  • #6,236
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:26am Nov 20, 2008 8:26am
Quoting verno
Can someone advise if this is a valid cup / bucket level?

also Smittens, what settings do you have stochs on?
As it happens, the "bottom of the bucket" was where the blue dotted line is. I wish I had read your post and investigated before the bounce occured.

If I mis-interpreted your question, please say.
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  • #6,237
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:31am Nov 20, 2008 8:31am
what defines it as being there? It looks like its the 3rd bar after the low but its not the reaction high, which is a bit higher?

I am confused
  • #6,238
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:34am Nov 20, 2008 8:34am
Quoting Grath
As it happens, the "bottom of the bucket" was where the blue dotted line is. I wish I had read your post and investigated before the bounce occured.

If I mis-interpreted your question, please say.
Its my opinion that you are optimizing this situation to fit a definition. In trading you need robust definitions not optimized. Sometimes price hits only the shadows sometimes it goes further and hits the bodies. If you go as far and say only enter on a tap of the body you will miss a lot of quality signals. However, the body definition worked really well today. Looks like you guys may get another chance at this one
  • #6,239
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:43am Nov 20, 2008 8:43am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Its my opinion that you are optimizing this situation to fit a definition. In trading you need robust definitions not optimized. Sometimes price hits only the shadows sometimes it goes further and hits the bodies. If you go as far and say only enter on a tap of the body you will miss a lot of quality signals. However, the body definition worked really well today. Looks like you guys may get another chance at this one
I agree. I realize more and more in life and in trading, people see what they want to see.
  • #6,240
  • Nov 20, 2008 9:03am Nov 20, 2008 9:03am
My apologies Sherm.

Found this about Wyckoff last night.
And also an xls file to help with position sizing according to risk tolerance and pip sizing.

Happy Pippin'
KC

Quoting Shermenator
Bud i came from the perspective that if the S/R looks questionable it might be because the level is not clear enough and not perceived as important from the majority. So if there's uncertainty about the level it might be because the level really is uncertain and a trade from it would be more risky. Sorry if it was percieved the wrong way
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf   1.1 MB | 1,794 downloads
File Type: xls Position Calculator.xls   52 KB | 485 downloads
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