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  • #6,181
  • Nov 19, 2008 2:55pm Nov 19, 2008 2:55pm
Quoting lumesh
first of all,

doesn't a CLEAN breakout mean that the price actually BREAKS the wedge and at least temporarily change course ???? What do we call a false breakout then ??? If it were a clean breakout and everybody was noticing and actually taken it into account then the price would have found a support at someplace while coming down.

if anything that was a CLEAN FALSE breakout, that could only be traded as a scalp trade and you were lucky that the price went that far at all.

Secondly, about fundamentals, if you thought that i was talking...

you sound like you went long on the second try to break 1.28
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,182
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:05pm Nov 19, 2008 3:05pm
What do you guys think about another bounce off 1.2085?
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  • #6,183
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:29pm Nov 19, 2008 3:29pm
Quoting lumesh
first of all,

doesn't a CLEAN breakout mean that the price actually BREAKS the wedge and at least temporarily change course ???? What do we call a false breakout then ??? If it were a clean breakout and everybody was noticing and actually taken it into account then the price would have found a support at someplace while coming down.

if anything that was a CLEAN FALSE breakout, that could only be traded as a scalp trade and you were lucky that the price went that far at all.
A clean breakout means price breaks the wedge flush without any consolidation or hesitation. That is exactly what it did. Look at the 1m chart and how strongly it moved past the trendline. That is a clean breakout to me. A false breakout would be moving past for a few pips, triggering orders, and then returning. False breakouts happen all the time, and I don't think 150 pips is a false breakout (unless you are looking at daily charts and looking for 1000 pip targets), nor do I think 150 pips is something to scoff at, especially if you keep a tight stop, which is what breakouts call for. Risk 10, 15, or even 20 pips to get 150? At worst you're getting almost a 1:10 R:R, and one of the easiest trades we've had in days.

Quote
Secondly, about fundamentals, if you thought that i was talking about general conditions and that breakout meant that the credit crisis is over, people are getting their jobs back, banks lending money at zero libor and so on then you must be thinking that i'm a total noob ...maybe i am though
no i wasn't talking about general conditions but a certain news event.

Which news event is that? I didn't even trade this breakout, as I stated in my first post of the day. I was in my car on the way to work, and was very upset that for the 30 minutes I was not at the charts I missed the move, which I said I was waiting for last night. On the Forex Factory main page, the only big US news came out at 9:30AM, but the breakout occurred well before that.

Quote
now you want me to note that dow is down come on dude, you have seen what the dow have been doing past several days haven't you...so that note doesn't mean a damn thing. Note that the dow went up almost 200 points at the time when it actually had a lower high and a lower low before that spike. So, TECHNICALLY what made it go up from nowhere ??? Certainly not the "King" technical analysis.

Why doesn't that note "mean a damn thing"? The EURUSD has been practically mimicking equities for the past month and a half, c'mon. I'm not trying to analyze why the DOW is doing what it's doing. I'm analyzing why the EURUSD is doing what it's doing, and if you're going to blithely discard what equities are doing, why are you talking about fundamentals at all?

Quote
i don't mean to step into conflict with anybody here just to let the newbies (pretty new myself) know that technical analysis itself, i dare to say, is pure crap...it is only the trigger. But newbies treat, just like i used to, technical analys as gold and this is where they fail (coupled with emotions). Everybody wants an easy way out and technical analysis seem at first to provide that.

Technical analysis work well when you got the direction/sentiment right. That is why some people here have mentioned that even BRV support and resistance are...

You are either purposefully misreading what I am trying to say, or I am not doing a good job explaining myself. Almost ALL my trades are made on a fundamental basis. I do a fundamental analysis every time I trade, in order to get a bias and look to trade in one direction. Technical analysis provides the, as you said, trigger for my entries.

That being said, technical trades happen all the time. I happen to think today is the perfect example. Anyone could've "scalped" 150 pips on the EURUSD, or more on other pairs, all on the basis of those trendlines , or the "king" technical analysis, even though there wasn't a real fundamental reason to do so. Stocks continuously getting killed... credit spreads widening AGAIN... auto bailout.. as far as I'm concerned I've yet to see any reason the EURUSD would go up given the current correlations and scene. But I was still waiting for that move, and it happened, and it was worth good pips.

Now, had it actually been supported fundamentally, then I'd be looking for it to continue on, and not have taken that nasty retracement. This is why fundamentals are so important. It could be the difference between keeping 150 pips or holding on to a trade that is about to become a big loser.
  • #6,184
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:38pm Nov 19, 2008 3:38pm
Its certainly possible, Libb. The things I am thinking about here are (1) price has moved over 200 PIPs today and ATR is 115. So it is tired and might just stay here and consolidate until the European open tonight. So, even if you did get taken in, It might not go anywhere until then and of course, then it might be a whole new ballgame. There is some news coming out later, but probably not real significant. (2) Price has now double topped (1H and 15 min charts) and this is further evidence that it might not have gas to move to new levels this late in the day. And those 15 min wicks are a little long - rejection for now.

Just for info, I am long both the Euro and the E/J with small positions.
  • #6,185
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:45pm Nov 19, 2008 3:45pm
Quoting seattlerust
Its certainly possible, Libb. The things I am thinking about here are (1) price has moved over 200 PIPs today and ATR is 115. So it is tired and might just stay here and consolidate until the European open tonight. So, even if you did get taken in, It might not go anywhere until then and of course, then it might be a whole new ballgame. There is some news coming out later, but probably not real significant. (2) Price has now double topped (1H and 15 min charts) and this is further evidence that it might not have gas to move to new levels this late...
Thanks I appreciate the overview, learned a few things to look out for next time. Hope I'm not being annoying in this thread, just trying to converse back and forth and learn as much as possible.
  • #6,186
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:46pm Nov 19, 2008 3:46pm
Where was your entry Seattle?

The EURUSD looks like it's ticking down, but it's also oversold at the level its at, and it's finding resistance at a bucket and previous support.

And libb, we're all (or most of us!) learning here. The more conversation, questions, and participation, the better for us all.
  • #6,187
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:51pm Nov 19, 2008 3:51pm
Quoting smittens4212
Where was your entry Seattle?

The EURUSD looks like it's ticking down, but it's also oversold at the level its at, and it's finding resistance at a bucket and previous support.

And libb, we're all (or most of us!) learning here. The more conversation, questions, and participation, the better for us all.
Thanks smittens!

- Seattlerust

I'm also curious about the reason for the long positions. I can see the E/J is oversold and an inside bar is about to form on the 1H. These are clues that it might be a good time to long, but as far as support and resistance I'm not seeing a clear long entry.

EDIT, never mind on that inside bar on E/J. Just went south.
  • #6,188
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:05pm Nov 19, 2008 4:05pm
Quoting smittens4212
A clean breakout means price breaks the wedge flush without any consolidation or hesitation. That is exactly what it did. Look at the 1m chart and how strongly it moved past the trendline. That is a clean breakout to me. A false breakout would be moving past for a few pips, triggering orders, and then returning. False breakouts happen all the time, and I don't think 150 pips is a false breakout (unless you are looking at daily charts and looking for 1000 pip targets), nor do I think 150 pips is something to scoff at, especially if you keep a tight...


OMG you crack me up


you trade 1min chart on an 1H and 4H diagonal trendline ?? i just checked the wedge and using your strategy there where downside false breakouts too i wonder how you would explain that...that 150 pips...yes that would have been the max you have gotten out of this and 10-15 stoploss ? man those breakouts happen 1 in 10th that work out like that
but i guess you know better

i just don't understand how the hell or at what point on a 1 min chart you can tell that this is going way more up and not stop and come down, we can all read the history you know



you talk about that i don't listen and then you say things like "why doesn't that mean a damn thing...equitys correlate with currencies etc" WHERE THE HELL DID I SAY IT DID*NT ???????????

of course they did and do, learn to read please, i just said that dow shot off exactly the same point that eurusd did....and it shoot off after it had formed a lower high and a lower low...so TECHNICALLY where's the logic in that ?? where am i impling on the UNimportance of DOW ???? just your note!! Since dow moves up and down with no particular direction (until now)

about the news...i read somewhere it was known half an hour before the release, that's why i was impling on that specific news.

If you stick to the timeframe of which the diagonal was created then how the hell wasn't that a false breakout....and no you don't have to go for thousand pips nor on the daily chart....there was a shadow on the 4H candle after in closed...

and TECHNICALLY it broke the bigger trendline (on 4H chart) too...many technical newbies went in on that one too just to get a big loss...because they read a lot what people say about technical analysis.

And remember what BRV said..."the importance of hourly closes" So if we would have started to trade after the hour closed, then OMG


and now tell me again please that this wasn't a false breakout

(and before you do please check the hourly and 4H chart where the wedge, trendline or whatever was formed)

btw i noticed before that we are talking about different things....you talk about low probabilty 1m scalp trade, i talk about breakouts on the SAME timeframe as where the wedge was formed
  • #6,189
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:06pm Nov 19, 2008 4:06pm
Both trades were taken pretty much for the same reasons. Unfortunately, the E/J was taken in early enough to pay and the E/U was not. So, win one and lose one.

The E/J (entry = 119.96) has an ATR of about 356 and has moved about 478 for the day. Has to be tired. It also has moved near the bottom of its range and the tendency of pairs is to revert to the range (I think you said that earlier, Smittens). I also have the 120 Figure marked from way back; the weekly chart I think. This was also the 79% retracement from last Thursday's huge move up late in the day. So, it was not a great trade, but I did get enough of a bounce to take off most of the lots and move stop to breakeven.

The E/U (entry = 1.2516) was not as good of a setup with the support line that I had (2512) did not have the Fib confluence. But, it had exceeded the ATR by about 100 PIPs, was near the lower edge of the range. And so forth. And I did not manage it well, I'm afraid, and didnt exit as early as I should have when the price action did not support the trade. So, as Smitten's said, we are all learning here, perhaps me more than most.

Hope this helps some.
  • #6,190
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:21pm Nov 19, 2008 4:21pm
long Aussie 6367.. scalped half for 20.. make or break looks clean up to 38 fib.6440 (15m) or 23 fib on 5m
  • #6,191
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:36pm Nov 19, 2008 4:36pm
Quoting cliffedwards
long Aussie 6367.. scalped half for 20.. make or break looks clean up to 38 fib.6440 (15m) or 23 fib on 5m
Nice, I was gonna wait till it hit .6340 for the bounce, but guess it used an earlier low as a support.
  • #6,192
  • Edited 5:03pm Nov 19, 2008 4:47pm | Edited 5:03pm
Quoting libb
Nice, I was gonna wait till it hit .6340 for the bounce, but guess it used an earlier low as a support.
Youre probably right LiBB.. just couldnt resist that reaction spike.....LoL...

EDIT > 0000 CET > Out at BE on second half.. Drat!
  • #6,193
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:01pm Nov 19, 2008 5:01pm
Quoting smittens4212
Where was your entry Seattle?

The EURUSD looks like it's ticking down, but it's also oversold at the level its at, and it's finding resistance at a bucket and previous support.

And libb, we're all (or most of us!) learning here. The more conversation, questions, and participation, the better for us all.
For EUR/USD, since the move down from 1.2815 was so big today, it seems to me that it is overextended and price might retrace some before proceeding its down move. Besides, the area around 1.2480 is providing good support at the moment, and this level/area was resistance turned support during the wave up.

So, it appears that going long around 1.2480 might be a good trade, with target at around 1.2570 and Stop Loss at around 1.2460. What do you think?

I appreciate your feedback. Thank you.
  • #6,194
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:06pm Nov 19, 2008 5:06pm
Quoting lumesh
OMG you crack me up


you trade 1min chart on an 1H and 4H diagonal trendline ?? i just checked the wedge and using your strategy there where downside false breakouts too i wonder how you would explain that...that 150 pips...yes that would have been the max you have gotten out of this and 10-15 stoploss ? man those breakouts happen 1 in 10th that work out like that
but i guess you know better

i just don't understand how the hell or at what point on a 1 min chart you can tell that this is going way more up and not stop and come down,...
Heh.. firstly: stop being a sarcastic dick, because you're wrong almost across the board.

Going to save myself the time of day, and just quote BRV on his latest blog post:
Quoting BRV
Now we scroll down to a 1 min timeframe of the same chart. You can clearly see that in all instances of the key areas, price blasted through them quickly and without haste...

I used to say just ‘get in right at the level’, but here’s how I do it: I always go down to a 1 min timeframe and monitor the initial reaction to the level. If it gets a quick bounce, I’m usually in. If it then takes it out my more than is necessary (see section on stop losses), I close the trade.
You're attacking me for using the 1 minute chart... even though it's used by BRV and other members.


Quote
If you stick to the timeframe of which the diagonal was created then how the hell wasn't that a false breakout....and no you don't have to go for thousand pips nor on the daily chart....there was a shadow on the 4H candle after in closed...

and TECHNICALLY it broke the bigger trendline (on 4H chart) too...many technical newbies went in on that one too just to get a big loss...because they read a lot what people say about technical analysis.

And remember what BRV said..."the importance of hourly closes" So if we would have started to trade...

Let me say this again: 150 pips is not a false breakout. If you got in at the entry, you would've actually maxed out at 165 pips. A false breakout would've been if it broke for 10 or 15 pips and then reversed-- just enough to get people to take orders, before reversing. THAT DID NOT HAPPEN. It moved 165 points from the entry! That is not a false breakout! Say it with me: this is not a false breakout.

Unless your charts are different than mine, the H4 bigger trendline entry would've been at 1.2700... in which case you still could've gotten 115 pips. But you say many people took big losses... what basis is this on? People in this very thread made good money on these breakouts. Who was losing on these trades? Anyone here? Maybe you. None of us, mate

As for these phantom "big losses" we would've gotten: proper risk management prevents big losses, period. Depending on which trendline you entered on, you got either 165 or 115 pips. Are you saying any of us here would somehow manage to LOSE money on these trades?

As for what BRV said about hourly closes... this is about the farthest thing from a hard and fast rule. Are you really suggesting that we wait for hourly closes before every trade? Why am I even arguing with you? If a price is approaching a key area at the beginning of an hour, I am NOT going to wait a full hour to take the trade! That is the epitome of stupid!

Quote
and now tell me again please that this wasn't a false breakout

(and before you do please check the hourly and 4H chart where the wedge, trendline or whatever was formed)

btw i noticed before that we are talking about different things....you talk about low probabilty 1m scalp trade, i talk about breakouts on the SAME timeframe as where the wedge was formed

Breakouts are irrespective of time. 165 pips in one hour means we're seeing a breakout on: 1m, 5m, 15m, 30m, 1H, and 4H, based on scale. That's the reality of the charts. Of course my chart was the 1H, but I look to the 1M to see the reaction at the price, and when the 1M price broke through the level, that was just a good indication that on the 1H chart we would move big because it'd be breaking it big there too.

It wasn't a false breakout Sorry mate, people made money on it, it was a very obvious and easy trade.
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  • #6,195
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:11pm Nov 19, 2008 5:11pm
Quoting linalm
For EUR/USD, since the move down from 1.2815 was so big today, it seems to me that it is overextended and price might retrace some before proceeding its down move. Besides, the area around 1.2480 is providing good support at the moment, and this level/area was resistance turned support during the wave up.

So, it appears that going long around 1.2480 might be a good trade, with target at around 1.2570 and Stop Loss at around 1.2460. What do you think?

I appreciate your feedback. Thank you.
1.2475/50 seem to be further support, also. I think you will be able to scalp a few pips, for sure, but I would watch where your stop loss is because there is a little bit more room to the downside.
  • #6,196
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:23pm Nov 19, 2008 5:23pm
Quoting smittens4212
1.2475/50 seem to be further support, also. I think you will be able to scalp a few pips, for sure, but I would watch where your stop loss is because there is a little bit more room to the downside.
Hmmm .. the next area of support for EUR/USD I have identified is around 1.2335. Smittens, would you mind sharing the EUR/USD levels you have identified so far? A chart with those would do it, if that's easier.

Also, what will you be watching out for in the chart to determine that the time to fade the price has come? I am a newbie in training and appreciate any and all the help I can get. I love this thread and the knowledge that is shared.

Thanks in advance.
  • #6,197
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:48pm Nov 19, 2008 5:48pm
In July EUR/USD was at 1.600, four months later it is about 20% less. Did the EC economy really deteriorate that much more than the US or is it more fear factor that drives the dollar at present.

On 10/27 the S&P was 840 and EUR/USD was 1.2329 now there at 806 & 1.2500. If S&P is driving the dollar shouldn’t EUR/USD be dropping to new lows.
  • #6,198
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:48pm Nov 19, 2008 5:48pm
Possible bounce on EUR/GBP on 0.8340. I don't think I'm gonna get in as I'm wary about the market in the slow times. Maybe someone can chime in about entering the market in known times of low pip ranges.
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  • #6,199
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:50pm Nov 19, 2008 5:50pm
Quoting libb
Possible bounce on EUR/GBP on 0.8340. I don't think I'm gonna get in as I'm wary about the market in the slow times. Maybe someone can chime in about entering the market in known times of low pip ranges.

That support has no build up...it has not been tested twice yet....no enough attention has been build around it
  • #6,200
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:53pm Nov 19, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting Shermenator
That support has no build up...it has not been tested twice yet....no enough attention has been build it around it

what about on the hourly...
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