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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,881
  • Mar 6, 2007 4:04am Mar 6, 2007 4:04am
Quoting turk87
WHat happened yesterday?
Yesterday? I saw the yen fall like a rock...and didn't jump in. So many pips passed in front of me, and not a single one ended in my account!!

Well...today I bagged a few pips in my trades. Us/cad & euro/us.
  • #1,882
  • Mar 6, 2007 5:08am Mar 6, 2007 5:08am
OK, here goes.
I'm taking the lead from the lovely ladies and trying a post of what I think.

Took a short on AUD/USD a little while ago - should've been a bit earlier but I am at work and it's difficult to watch.

Reasons -
1. 4H had retraced to 8ema and a 4H Inside Bottom which is possibly now resistance - Tamkras, pips, do you agree with Inside Bottom call?

2. Price had bounced from a daily inside bottom and daily 38.2 and 50 fib levels

3. 1H showing a RT - This is where I could've got in a bit earlier had I seen it earlier.

4. In at 0.7736, SL at 0.7759 (spread +1 above previous 4H candle), TP 0.7714 (above 38.2 and 50 daily fib levels from point 2 above) I.e. trying not to be greedy.

5. R:R just about ok

Views on this trade are welcome so I can learn.
I feel as though I'm possibly forcing a trade, but at the same time, it's what I see so I'm going for it.

4h and 1H charts are below

Cheers
Colin.
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Enter Signature
  • #1,883
  • Mar 6, 2007 6:15am Mar 6, 2007 6:15am
Quoting cologg
OK, here goes.
I'm taking the lead from the lovely ladies and trying a post of what I think.

Took a short on AUD/USD a little while ago - should've been a bit earlier but I am at work and it's difficult to watch.

Reasons -
1. 4H had retraced to 8ema and a 4H Inside Bottom which is possibly now resistance - Tamkras, pips, do you agree with Inside Bottom call?

2. Price had bounced from a daily inside bottom and daily 38.2 and 50 fib levels

3. 1H showing a RT - This is where I could've got in a bit earlier had I seen it earlier.

4. In at 0.7736, SL at 0.7759 (spread +1 above previous 4H candle), TP 0.7714 (above 38.2 and 50 daily fib levels from point 2 above) I.e. trying not to be greedy.

5. R:R just about ok

Views on this trade are welcome so I can learn.
I feel as though I'm possibly forcing a trade, but at the same time, it's what I see so I'm going for it.

4h and 1H charts are below

Cheers
Colin.

What is an inside botom?
I can see the trade in the 1 hr chart, but I cannot see it in the 4hr. I guess you are hoping it will turn (the 4hr MACD) into a TC signal. What I'd do is wait for the bar in the MACD to paint red and that will give me two possibilities: a) a TC for a short, or b) a Higher Low for a long. With that in mind I'd go to the 1 hr chart to confirm which of those two have a higher probability of happening.
In summary, I'd use the 4hr to show the trade and the 1 hr to confirm.

But that is me, and i am also learning. So i post this commentary with the same intention as you did: to learn from what others have to say.
  • #1,884
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:27am Mar 6, 2007 7:27am
Quoting alcastro
What is an inside botom?
I can see the trade in the 1 hr chart, but I cannot see it in the 4hr. I guess you are hoping it will turn (the 4hr MACD) into a TC signal. What I'd do is wait for the bar in the MACD to paint red and that will give me two possibilities: a) a TC for a short, or b) a Higher Low for a long. With that in mind I'd go to the 1 hr chart to confirm which of those two have a higher probability of happening.
In summary, I'd use the 4hr to show the trade and the 1 hr to confirm.

But that is me, and i am also learning. So i post this commentary with the same intention as you did: to learn from what others have to say.
Thanks for feedback.
I guess I jumped the gun a bit.
I thought the Inside Bottom was the opposite of thje Inside Top? Did I get the terminology wrong?

Cheers
Enter Signature
  • #1,885
  • Mar 6, 2007 7:29am Mar 6, 2007 7:29am
Quoting cologg
OK, here goes.
I'm taking the lead from the lovely ladies and trying a post of what I think.

Took a short on AUD/USD a little while ago - should've been a bit earlier but I am at work and it's difficult to watch.

Reasons -
1. 4H had retraced to 8ema and a 4H Inside Bottom which is possibly now resistance - Tamkras, pips, do you agree with Inside Bottom call?

2. Price had bounced from a daily inside bottom and daily 38.2 and 50 fib levels

3. 1H showing a RT - This is where I could've got in a bit earlier had I seen it earlier.

4. In at 0.7736, SL at 0.7759 (spread +1 above previous 4H candle), TP 0.7714 (above 38.2 and 50 daily fib levels from point 2 above) I.e. trying not to be greedy.

5. R:R just about ok

Views on this trade are welcome so I can learn.
I feel as though I'm possibly forcing a trade, but at the same time, it's what I see so I'm going for it.

4h and 1H charts are below

Cheers
Colin.
you went against me but you got it right.
  • #1,886
  • Mar 6, 2007 8:37am Mar 6, 2007 8:37am
Quoting cologg
OK, here goes.
I'm taking the lead from the lovely ladies and trying a post of what I think.

Took a short on AUD/USD a little while ago - should've been a bit earlier but I am at work and it's difficult to watch.

Reasons -
1. 4H had retraced to 8ema and a 4H Inside Bottom which is possibly now resistance - Tamkras, pips, do you agree with Inside Bottom call?

2. Price had bounced from a daily inside bottom and daily 38.2 and 50 fib levels

3. 1H showing a RT - This is where I could've got in a bit earlier had I seen it earlier.

4. In at 0.7736, SL at 0.7759 (spread +1 above previous 4H candle), TP 0.7714 (above 38.2 and 50 daily fib levels from point 2 above) I.e. trying not to be greedy.

5. R:R just about ok

Views on this trade are welcome so I can learn.
I feel as though I'm possibly forcing a trade, but at the same time, it's what I see so I'm going for it.

4h and 1H charts are below

Cheers
Colin.
Hi Colin!!!

Great job on the trade!!! Thank you so much for sharing your analysis and charts.

Looks like you used the 1 hour to really determine the trade vs. the 4 hour chart because you took the 1 hour signal without it showing on the 4 hour chart (and you also set your profit target low, which is good for the timeframe).

I think you got a bit confused with TamKras and my discussion on the nesting dolls (inside and upside down) discussion b/c we were talking about 2 inside bottoms (would look like a skewed "W"), and I don't see a second bottom on the chart.

Just my thoughts (and really, in trading the only thoughts that matter are your own rational decision making ones!). Nice job on the plan!!! Let us all know how the trade did (and of course, your next trade anlysis).
  • #1,887
  • Mar 6, 2007 9:16am Mar 6, 2007 9:16am
Quoting alcastro
What is an inside botom?
I can see the trade in the 1 hr chart, but I cannot see it in the 4hr. I guess you are hoping it will turn (the 4hr MACD) into a TC signal. What I'd do is wait for the bar in the MACD to paint red and that will give me two possibilities: a) a TC for a short, or b) a Higher Low for a long. With that in mind I'd go to the 1 hr chart to confirm which of those two have a higher probability of happening.
In summary, I'd use the 4hr to show the trade and the 1 hr to confirm.

But that is me, and i am also learning. So i post this commentary with the same intention as you did: to learn from what others have to say.
Colin

Tx for the charts - very informative. I can only see a RB on the 4h (last "white" candle) with a possible pull back to the 8 or 21MA (counter trend trade). Confrim on the 1h (price on the 21MA & bounch upwards & TC MACD pattern). Surely the long was on at that stage. Stop loss is a problem - 30+ pips to get under the tail of the that Low/bottom candle

Any comments?

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,888
  • Mar 6, 2007 9:36am Mar 6, 2007 9:36am
Hello,

I have a question regarding identifying trends. I've read that the 89 sma represents the current trend direction (or "mood", as it were).

If the 89 sma is trending upwards, but price and the shorter ma's are below the 89, would a long MACD signal be considered a trend or counter-trend entry.

Look at the EUR/USD chart right now for this example.

Thanks,
Randy
  • #1,889
  • Mar 6, 2007 9:58am Mar 6, 2007 9:58am
Randy:

As far as the method goes:

When the price is below the 89, the trend is down. This is where the shorter ma's come into play. Closes above the 8 and 21 signal strength in the turn of price, then a test of the 89 comes into play. The MACD is the 'guide for direction'. But again, there are other factors as well, support (blue line) and trend lines as well.

Here's the current E$:

Prices are toying with the ma's right now and the MACD has formed a RB at support and the trendline. But, I'd still wait for a close above the 21 before a long is considered. If there is a close above the 89, "price tends to pull back to the 21 before continuing on."
Attached Image
  • #1,890
  • Mar 6, 2007 9:59am Mar 6, 2007 9:59am
Quoting RandyG67
Hello,

I have a question regarding identifying trends. I've read that the 89 sma represents the current trend direction (or "mood", as it were).

If the 89 sma is trending upwards, but price and the shorter ma's are below the 89, would a long MACD signal be considered a trend or counter-trend entry.

Look at the EUR/USD chart right now for this example.

Thanks,
Randy
Hi
It is not so much the upward trending of the 89SMA but where the price are relative to the 89SMA. If the price is below the mood might be short and a long signal will be counter trend. There are times when the price zig zag over the 89SMA then there is no defined trend and then there is no counter trend trades. You take it as it comes.

It works on all timeframes.
  • #1,891
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:00am Mar 6, 2007 10:00am
Here are some 'pullbacks', the circles. Note the bearish divergence in price highs and the MACD.
Attached Image
  • #1,892
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:26am Mar 6, 2007 10:26am
Thanks!

I guess my confusion was that generally (outside this 4H method), slope and direction are considered the key WRT moving averages.

Here, it's about where price is in relation to the 89 ma.

Randy
  • #1,893
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:37am Mar 6, 2007 10:37am
There's a lot to consider along with the ma's and MACD. Such as divergence, trendlines, support and resistance...it sounds like a lot but when you start to recognize things over time, it gets easier. I've stuck with the Euro$ specifically with this method. I'm just now starting to look at the $JPY. Check on the daily also around big round #'s such as 1.3100, 1.3000, etc. Whole round numbers act as S/R levels all by themselves. I'm constantly going over historical charts on the 4hr and 1hr to 'see' the setups....they'll happen again.
  • #1,894
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:58am Mar 6, 2007 10:58am
Quoting Palmer
There's a lot to consider along with the ma's and MACD. Such as divergence, trendlines, support and resistance...it sounds like a lot but when you start to recognize things over time, it gets easier. I've stuck with the Euro$ specifically with this method. I'm just now starting to look at the $JPY. Check on the daily also around big round #'s such as 1.3100, 1.3000, etc. Whole round numbers act as S/R levels all by themselves. I'm constantly going over historical charts on the 4hr and 1hr to 'see' the setups....they'll happen again.
Hi Palmer!

When you go over the historical 4 hour charts, did you notice huge movements around the first Sunday/Monday trading day of the month? I ask because yesterday, when I was doing the cursory glance back for the MACD level, I noticed for the pound many months with these large movements. I need to look closer to make sure that I just wasn't "seeing" something that's not really true. Just curious if you noticed anything along these lines with EurUsd. If we look and it is true, would be something to keep an eye out for in the future.

pips
  • #1,895
  • Mar 6, 2007 10:59am Mar 6, 2007 10:59am
Quoting Palmer
Here are some 'pullbacks', the circles. Note the bearish divergence in price highs and the MACD.
Nice example!
  • #1,896
  • Mar 6, 2007 11:00am Mar 6, 2007 11:00am
I'll take a lookee and lookee....
  • #1,897
  • Mar 6, 2007 11:04am Mar 6, 2007 11:04am
Thanks, and I'll look closer at the pound today....since the market doesn't want to speak clearly to me at the moment!
  • #1,898
  • Edited 1:04pm Mar 6, 2007 11:24am | Edited 1:04pm
Everything looks 'stuck' right now...

I looked at 2006 for the first Sun/Mon of the month and all months but July, Aug, and Nov had very large runs during or a few bars after the 00:00 candle. BUT, there's always a BUT, some of these large runs started against the trend; price was above the 89 and then tanked to the short side. You just never know when it'll happen. But, with Phillip's method there is ample time to jump in and have a 'good day'. If I can remember, I'll post a new Sun/Mon reminder for April. I can't post this chart because it only squishes so much. This may be a result of fund managers buying around the first of the month or something to that affect ( or effect?). Either way, it looks like it should at least have 'post it note' status...

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  • #1,899
  • Mar 6, 2007 12:13pm Mar 6, 2007 12:13pm
Thanks, Palmer!

I'm trying to get some coherent info on the pound to show how many months and move size. My logic is if we see one coming and a signal is given we may be able to hop on a gravy boat.

Just going to look at movement now, then later I'll look w/signals (maybe it will help us let trades run better if there is a correlation...who knows).

Appreciate your help on the Eur!!
  • #1,900
  • Mar 6, 2007 12:17pm Mar 6, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting Palmer
Randy:

As far as the method goes:

When the price is below the 89, the trend is down. This is where the shorter ma's come into play. Closes above the 8 and 21 signal strength in the turn of price, then a test of the 89 comes into play. The MACD is the 'guide for direction'. But again, there are other factors as well, support (blue line) and trend lines as well.

Here's the current E$:

Prices are toying with the ma's right now and the MACD has formed a RB at support and the trendline. But, I'd still wait for a close above the 21 before a long is considered. If there is a close above the 89, "price tends to pull back to the 21 before continuing on."
Hi Palmer, thank you for your clear explaination of this , i thought i had it down but aftr reading your post i understand it better now.
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