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  • #6,141
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:34am Nov 19, 2008 8:34am
Quoting Tori
I am stoked. pulled plug on pound for 268 pips. dont like how they have all stalled. wouldnt want to take a sell with that momentum so if the dropped back to support would look then. But it is very late in oz so I am off. You guys will have all the fun by the looks. toodles

good for you that was one hell of a trade. How did you have the nerve to hold through the 1.5093 t.l. go have a fosters or what ever you bloody aussies drink to celebrate
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  • #6,142
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:36am Nov 19, 2008 8:36am
A Breakout, GW.
  • #6,143
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:37am Nov 19, 2008 8:37am
Thanks GW. Held my nerve because I was already up a good way so didnt have anything to lose, and I really felt strongly about assessment. gosh how can I leave, so much going on. might hang out for half an hour, but not to say much. yest we drink fosters, icy cold. had a ball today. thanks everyone for comments. too.
  • #6,144
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:43am Nov 19, 2008 8:43am
Quoting seattlerust
A Breakout, GW.
Isn't the pattern previous to the break an ascending triangle or rising wedge or something like that? I felt this break coming all day. Tori and I had spoke about it quite a bit. Just want to be able to remember this for similar circumstances. I was leaning on this pattern and used a much shorter time frame to get abroad this move.

My broker on the wires blabbering that this caused the move.

US Fed's Kohn is out saying that the Fed is engaging in quantitative easing to provide liquidity - this is likely behind some of the USD weakness, though technical triggers were also obvious in the 1.5090 area in GBPUSD and 1.2735 level in EURUSD (21-day SMA)
  • #6,145
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:48am Nov 19, 2008 8:48am
Tori, that T.L. we were talking about in the DX. watch the 87.00 level for some big time resistance.
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  • #6,146
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:54am Nov 19, 2008 8:54am
Quoting Tori
Thanks GW. Held my nerve because I was already up a good way so didnt have anything to lose, and I really felt strongly about assessment. gosh how can I leave, so much going on. might hang out for half an hour, but not to say much. yest we drink fosters, icy cold. had a ball today. thanks everyone for comments. too.

I was also on eurjpy and GU.
It look like a break now. the party maybe continue as news will come...

Tori,
Do not go. You are our lucky charm.
Combined with GW double power.
  • #6,147
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:00am Nov 19, 2008 9:00am
Quoting ady27
I was also on eurjpy and GU.
It look like a break now. the party maybe continue as news will come...

Tori,
Do not go. You are our lucky charm.
Combined with GW double power.
ady would you mind sharing the chart how you got long eur/jpy. I don't see anything so clear
  • #6,148
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:12am Nov 19, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Guerrillawar
ady would you mind sharing the chart how you got long eur/jpy. I don't see anything so clear
Sure my friend,

The gold line 122.72 broke, i had my order 10 pips away (always) and hold it up to 124.

Look how the retracement supported on the blue 123.57.
May the ride continue... hopefully.
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  • #6,149
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:16am Nov 19, 2008 9:16am
thanks for the chart, good for you. I never trade breakouts but its nice to see that it can be done. if its executed correctly.
  • #6,150
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:20am Nov 19, 2008 9:20am
Quoting Guerrillawar
thanks for the chart, good for you. I never trade breakouts but its nice to see that it can be done. if its executed correctly.
GW,

I find it easier for me to trade breakouts.
It seem that I not confident to trade fade outs.
This is something I need to work (out-s).

What fade lines do you see now, and more important WHY?
  • #6,151
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:27am Nov 19, 2008 9:27am
Quoting Guerrillawar
w.t.h. just caused that violent break. any one know? whats your estimate on an initial target on eur/usd
I posted this last night.

Quote
FYI if you have a look, most if not all the majors are in really identifiable patterns respecting trendlines. Prime setups for big breakouts. Still more room to consolidate though.

UNFORTUNATELY I was in my car on the way to work when they all broke! I had literally been waiting all night for these moves which were easily predictable, and then missed out... that is ****ing frustrating as hell.

And GW, you should think about adding breakouts to your system. They occur much less often than S&R, but when there's surefire setups like the ones we've had building up over the past two weeks, there's no easier, faster, and bigger pips in the market available imho. Sometimes you can see runs of 1, 2, even 300 pips in a matter of minutes.
  • #6,152
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:31am Nov 19, 2008 9:31am
looks like we are around the 21 ma atm.... it hit it once after the break and bounced 20 pips but its lingering around it, there was good rejection around the 1.2800 area
  • #6,153
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:36am Nov 19, 2008 9:36am
Quoting ady27
GW,

I find it easier for me to trade breakouts.
It seem that I not confident to trade fade outs.
This is something I need to work (out-s).

What fade lines do you see now, and more important WHY?
there are quite a bit of fade plays based on this recent break. I have orders in eur/usd at that horiz line. I'm going to leave that order till its filled probably will happen overnight. I'm sure a few people got screwed on this up move so it should be a nice solid level that lends it self really well to risk management.
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  • #6,154
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:38am Nov 19, 2008 9:38am
Quoting Guerrillawar
This is what my broker says caused the move. That was sure a nice one

FX: EURUSD triggers buy stops through 1.2700-10, which was a trendline break. EURUSD should now have a bit of room on the topside. High so far 1.2765.


definitely not because of this diagonal trendline

there are always "out-of-technical" reasons for those moves, whatever that reason (maybe the inflation drop news ?) was.

it just lined up with the trendline and therefore technical traders just added up to that breakout...if it was because of the buy stops of 1.2700 what caused the move up from 1.2630-1.2700 in less than 3 minutes ???


there are enough examples out there to prove that diagonal breakouts are crap IF traded solely based on that and most of those are:

breakout in one timeframe is a shadow in a bigger timeframe and so on.
  • #6,155
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:55am Nov 19, 2008 9:55am
Quoting Guerrillawar
there are quite a bit of fade plays based on this recent break. I have orders in eur/usd at that horiz line. I'm going to leave that order till its filled probably will happen overnight. I'm sure a few people got screwed on this up move so it should be a nice solid level that lends it self really well to risk management.
I am sorry if it sounds tedious, this line was ignored so many time since 7.11 that it was formed. what is the logic that buyer will come into the market then? btw, on my charts its 1.2652.

I can not see a support line down to 1.2575...
Now it is hoovering around 1.2678 which has a bit of history.
  • #6,156
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:57am Nov 19, 2008 9:57am
Hope moxy doesn't mind me reposting his chart, but this trade on EUR/GBP might be coming up.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...7&d=1227095210
  • #6,157
  • Nov 19, 2008 9:59am Nov 19, 2008 9:59am
I disagree lumesh.

When you have long, developing and tested trendlines on both sides of price, as price continues to consolidate (triangle, wedge, etc.), then that is when trendline breaks are effective and can move the market without a real fundamental reason.

The way I interpreted todays move is the TL broke at 1.2650, traders added positions > price rose above 1.2700 > buy stops triggered, price runs up.

It was about as technical a trade as you can get. And yes, there are always "out-of-technical" reasons to describe why a move happened, that doesn't necessarily mean it was the "out-of-technical" reason that actually moved the market.

Is it just a coincidence that price consolidated for weeks within their trendlines, slowly but surely developing towards a median, eventually rising to the breaking point of last night where we traded in a 50 point range for twelve hours before breaking the trendline and then moving 150 pips in less than an hour? Is there a real fundamental reason it did that? Funny how fast fundamentals change then, that we've already retraced that move...
  • #6,158
  • Nov 19, 2008 10:04am Nov 19, 2008 10:04am
Quoting smittens4212
I disagree lumesh.

When you have long, developing and tested trendlines on both sides of price, as price continues to consolidate (triangle, wedge, etc.), then that is when trendline breaks are effective and can move the market without a real fundamental reason.

The way I interpreted todays move is the TL broke at 1.2650, traders added positions > price rose above 1.2700 > buy stops triggered, price runs up.

It was about as technical a trade as you can get. And yes, there are always "out-of-technical" reasons to describe why a move happened,...

excellent reply smittens
  • #6,159
  • Nov 19, 2008 10:15am Nov 19, 2008 10:15am
Quoting smittens4212
I disagree lumesh.

When you have long, developing and tested trendlines on both sides of price, as price continues to consolidate (triangle, wedge, etc.), then that is when trendline breaks are effective and can move the market without a real fundamental reason.

The way I interpreted todays move is the TL broke at 1.2650, traders added positions > price rose above 1.2700 > buy stops triggered, price runs up.

It was about as technical a trade as you can get. And yes, there are always "out-of-technical" reasons to describe why a move happened,...

if it was as technical trade as you can get why did the price come down the same weight as it went up....it supposed to be a clean breakout ??



is there a real fundamental reason for that you ask ?

is it coincidence that the price started to accelerate right after the inflation news ? when it started going in a fast pace it was actually in the wedge.

btw in my chart it behaved just like i said: what is a breakout in one timeframe is a shadow in another
  • #6,160
  • Nov 19, 2008 10:18am Nov 19, 2008 10:18am
Quoting lumesh
if it was as technical trade as you can get why did the price come down the same weight as it went up....it supposed to be a clean breakout ??



is there a real fundamental reason for that you ask ?

is it coincidence that the price started to accelerate right after the inflation news ?
because the dx was at major support. This move back allowed for pros on the wrong side to exit. It also allows for people that believe in the break to enter if they missed it. The sole purpose of the market is to transact as much business as possible. This back and forth movement allows for this
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