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  • #6,101
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:22am Nov 19, 2008 6:22am
Quoting Tori
I always use 1 min to guage entry and if it isnt quite at line but is looking good I will take it. I cannot say I would feel comfortable with buy in pound there, my 076 line is solid so from there up is not not enough room here, for me. this could end up in tight channel going sideways again, who knows. It really could be all over there for a while as it looks slow. I just got in eurjpy as my 122.29 line has been pretty good.
thanks for your answer, is this attached chart how you played the gbp trade? If this isn't they way I'm some how not getting it.
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  • #6,102
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:27am Nov 19, 2008 6:27am
Tori my plan for cable is basically a 1/1 enter at 1.4995 and close at 1.5075. I already missed the move but nothing really looks better in my eyes at this time.
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  • #6,103
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:27am Nov 19, 2008 6:27am
Quoting Guerrillawar
thanks for your answer, is this attached chart how you played the gbp trade? If this isn't they way I'm some how not getting it.
Yes. spot on, the diagonal must join two lowest lows from right, not left. see below entry. not this one
  • #6,104
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:30am Nov 19, 2008 6:30am
Quoting Guerrillawar
thanks for your answer, is this attached chart how you played the gbp trade? If this isn't they way I'm some how not getting it.
apologies. entry was trend low before, where diagonal crosses. I had to suffer the later dip, but never went near stop. sorry
  • #6,105
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:34am Nov 19, 2008 6:34am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Tori my plan for cable is basically a 1/1 enter at 1.4995 and close at 1.5075. I already missed the move but nothing really looks better in my eyes at this time.
GW. too strong to go back down yet. you might be looking further up for a sell. also usdcad might be worth watching. you could check out wurjpy if it drops down a little. I like that.
  • #6,106
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:42am Nov 19, 2008 6:42am
Well during these tight range bound days I think we all need to learn patience. I took a couple of low probability trades yesterday which didn't work out and when I look back I kick myself.

I think the key is to just wait for the market to come to you but its frustrating.

I am looking at circa 1.52 in GBPUSD and 1.2440 in USDCAD
  • #6,107
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:47am Nov 19, 2008 6:47am
Quoting Tori
GW. too strong to go back down yet. you might be looking further up for a sell. also usdcad might be worth watching. you could check out wurjpy if it drops down a little. I like that.
eur/jpy looks to me like its going to blast through I would not have any sell orders in there. maybe some buys on lower end of this range. It looks like all the down trend lines are going to get smoked today. I'm not selling anything besides the dollar. However, all this depends on the S&P
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  • #6,108
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:53am Nov 19, 2008 6:53am
Nice way of trading ....always be aware of the trend direction of higher highs and lower lows...be patient and this system is great....
  • #6,109
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:03am Nov 19, 2008 7:03am
GW was not meaning a sell on eurjpy, a buy from a little lower as you say. think it will go up
  • #6,110
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:07am Nov 19, 2008 7:07am
Quoting Tori
GW was not meaning a sell on eurjpy, a guy from a little lower as you say. think it will go up

You think it will go down to 121.73? or a long sooner would be a good idea....
  • #6,111
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:11am Nov 19, 2008 7:11am
Quoting verno
Well during these tight range bound days I think we all need to learn patience. I took a couple of low probability trades yesterday which didn't work out and when I look back I kick myself.

I think the key is to just wait for the market to come to you but its frustrating.

I am looking at circa 1.52 in GBPUSD and 1.2440 in USDCAD

This made me smile Verno I have kicked myself for this very reason a number of times.
Another view is: If we were trading for a bank I presume we would always have a strategy that would work on any trading day. The thing is..... someone will have a great day today using their methods.. whether scalping, 4 hour trading, 15 minute trading and on and on.

We have to have patience but that is only relative to the method / strategy we employ.
If only we had access to a banks crystal ball.

At least during the waiting we can learn some more!
  • #6,112
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:12am Nov 19, 2008 7:12am
Quoting libb
You think it will go down to 121.73? or a long sooner would be a good idea....
I dont think it will go that far. 122.13 was my preference. Has gone lower, would be good if it did that, but somehow dont think so. just have to ride it and use intuition.go to your one min chart to gauge entry.
  • #6,113
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:13am Nov 19, 2008 7:13am
Quoting Tori
I dont think it will go that far. 122.13 was my preference. Has gone lower, would be good if it did that, but somehow dont think so. just have to ride it and use intuition.go to your one min chart to gauge entry.

Thanks, appreciate the help while I try to get better. I'll be quiet for now
  • #6,114
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:14am Nov 19, 2008 7:14am
GW. I would like to ask you what you think the onther indices say about the usd. How do you think it looks as you see it.
  • #6,115
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:22am Nov 19, 2008 7:22am
Libb Excuse me, but be quiet why. I only learn because I am game enough to have a go and if I make messy suggestion, hopefully someone with more knowledge will show me. You learn nothing unless you are in the thick. You wont know just how much you know till you put it to the test. I wanted to test myself to see if I had the confidence to believe my trades would work. Believe me, I know very little about trading. But I know a heck of a lot about discipline. I logged off earlier because I was only one talking, so dont be quiet, or we cant share. Now I want to be quiet for a while.
  • #6,116
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:24am Nov 19, 2008 7:24am
Quoting Tori
GW. I would like to ask you what you think the onther indices say about the usd. How do you think it looks as you see it.

In the long term I see some dollar weakness. Heres a weekly chart I posted yesterday of the dollar index
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  • #6,117
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:29am Nov 19, 2008 7:29am
Tori in the short term. This up sloping trend line looks like it will break today. That seems to conform with my idea that eur/usd will break its downsloping trendline. That should offer some low hanging fruit.
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  • #6,118
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:38am Nov 19, 2008 7:38am
Quoting Tori
Libb...
I thought I was being annoying but if you don't mind, then carry on!
  • #6,119
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:50am Nov 19, 2008 7:50am
Quoting robgsxr
This made me smile Verno I have kicked myself for this very reason a number of times.
Another view is: If we were trading for a bank I presume we would always have a strategy that would work on any trading day. The thing is..... someone will have a great day today using their methods.. whether scalping, 4 hour trading, 15 minute trading and on and on.

We have to have patience but that is only relative to the method / strategy we employ.
If only we had access to a banks crystal ball.

At least during the waiting we can...

Gentlemen,
...if we only had acces to a crystall ball...
I wanted to make a comment on that!


I have seen bank trading statistics /statements depicting the "professional" trades they did over a given period. Observation no.1: these guys almost never trade with more than 0.5 % risk per trade of their available trading capital (per trader). Mostly, they risk about 0.05-0.15% of total trading capital per trade.
Obeservation no2: you have no idea how often these guys (bank traders) are wrong (i.e. getting stopped out ).
Observation no. 3: if they lose their daily limit (say 3% max), they take the day off...probably getting replaced with another trader for the rest of the day. If they violate these rules, they are going to fetch coffee for their colleagues for the rest of the month.
Observation no.4. their trading tools are no magic....rather than a mix of fundies and "simple" technicals. They have highly paid analysts which sort out the fundies. These analysis are going to the traders and they decide how to trade tha day. We also have acces to these analysts reports such as UBS, Deutsche Bank, RBS etc...just look aroung on the internet (Saxobank is a good source)...its free btw.
The real advantage of bank traders is that they have some more "insider information" on things like mergers & acquisitions or other news, which could shape the market flow...and they see the order flow (i.e offer and bid levels where large orders accumulate, but that only helps to a limited extend). During news events, these levels may evaporate on their screens like fog!

If these guys were so well equipped, they would make alot more money. It is only that they play with huge amounts and a 0.0001% profit can make a lot of money!!! And...after all, they don't play with their own money


Last...and IF they were so brilliant, why on earth do we have a world financial crisis???

Cheers, stay with support and resistance...and I wish you all the best your charts have to offer!
  • #6,120
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:56am Nov 19, 2008 7:56am
Thanks Brad Pip, I enjoyed reading about all that. Does anyone have a thought on usdcad. looks good spot for sell coming up, havent made up my mind till I see if it is strong there, or fails.
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