No Brainer Trades | Page 304 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #6,061
  • Nov 18, 2008 11:54am Nov 18, 2008 11:54am
Hello, guys can you please help me. Did any one notice in the last thirty minutes if your Aud/usd spread widened to 6 pips and as high as 9 pips at one time? I have been trying to extricate my self from a sour position at b.e. I just recently did it but for quite a while my broker was quoting a wide spread. I just want to know if you guys had nearly the same quotes.
  • #6,062
  • Nov 18, 2008 11:57am Nov 18, 2008 11:57am
Quoting smittens4212
Often times if you adjust your TLs you can miss out on a reaction of where the TL was initially drawn. This is the problem with TLs: they can be ambiguous, and while they may be working well right now, you might go through a period of getting burned or missing out on trades as you constantly redraw them. If you rely purely on TLs you will be burned by many false breakouts, also.
I agree with you once again Smittens. I think recently people have gone into trendline mania mode. Just remember BRV's advice. He only uses trendlines as a confirming tool. If push the envelope to far with trendlines trouble will happen.
  • #6,063
  • Nov 18, 2008 12:06pm Nov 18, 2008 12:06pm
I have been watching the E/U all morning too and am beginning to agree that it might not reach the 1.2737 level today. ATR is in the low 200s (237 with a 5 day period) and playing it at the 2703 level, while a nice resistance with the confluence of the 79% retracement and the bucket, will still be short of the ATR by about 100 PIPs. It is bound to be a lower probability trade. It also will still be in the range and I would much rather trade at the extremes of the range. Also, the 2676 level seems to be the stronger resistance so far, so there is a lot of doubt in my mind as to where this will ultimately go for the day. Maybe nowhere.
  • #6,064
  • Nov 18, 2008 12:20pm Nov 18, 2008 12:20pm
hey guys I managed to make the mistake of the day. I was short usd/jpy 97.20 closed out at 96.95. I was short aud/usd at 6546 and closed at 6540. I closed because I wasn't to happy about the way price broke through the trend line on a h1. What a disappointment these two turned into great trades.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.JPG Size: 60 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.JPG Size: 62 KB
  • #6,065
  • Nov 18, 2008 12:30pm Nov 18, 2008 12:30pm
Quoting seattlerust
I have been watching the E/U all morning too and am beginning to agree that it might not reach the 1.2737 level today....
This was my game plan for the euro today. Both directions happened just as planned. I was long in the london session. However, I didn't get short up there I was bogged down in the aud/usd and usd/jpy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.JPG Size: 60 KB
  • #6,066
  • Nov 18, 2008 12:38pm Nov 18, 2008 12:38pm
Watching 1.2570. A break of that, depending on what goes on in equities at the moment, could be big.
  • #6,067
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:00pm Nov 18, 2008 3:00pm
Bucket on USD/JPY at 97.20?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy bucket.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,068
  • Nov 18, 2008 5:33pm Nov 18, 2008 5:33pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Dx is simple, apply the same concepts Brv has taught everyone in this thread. I prefer a 30 minute chart for the Dx but h4,h2,h1 they will all do. For example when eur/usd is at resistance and dx is at support at the same time. You have an excellent trade on your hands. ...
Hello everyone,

I am stuck trying to understand the correlations between currencies and other markets. Related to the highlighted text in the above quote, would you please spell it out for me what the excellent trade would be when EUR/USD is at resistance at the same time the Dollar Index is at support? Is that setup favoring a long on EUR/USD or a short?

And also, would you be so kind to point me in the direction where I can read more about correlations between currencies and other markets. I've been carefully studying the posts in this thread from about two months or so ago related to this very topic and I still don't get it. I seem to have a brain freeze.. Please help.

Thank you in advance. Regards.
  • #6,069
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:14pm Nov 18, 2008 6:14pm
GBP/USD H1 chart. Is that head and shoulders or what ?
I hope my imagination is not playing tricks on me but looks like price is retested neckline @ 1.4979 twice and is not about to break down away from 1.4950.


Would love to hear some comments on that.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,070
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:33pm Nov 18, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting djambazov84
GBP/USD H1 chart. Is that head and shoulders or what ?
I hope my imagination is not playing tricks on me but looks like price is retested neckline @ 1.4979 twice and is not about to break down away from 1.4950.


Would love to hear some comments on that.

Head and shoulders patterns are possibly the most reliable and most recognizable (perhaps these are correlated) conventional technical formation going IMO. I don't really see this one as being a great pattern itself though - the left shoulder and the head found resistance at the same level to my mind, the right shoulder was lower than the left shoulder as the bears won over and we dropped below the support level and the most recent swing low. Nevertheless it is a solid bearish 1-2-3 patten, which is essentially what goes on in the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern. Looking at the price action leading up to this we can see how price traveled through the support and resistance levels, like a bouncing ball, testing a retesting each level. Sooner or later though, the momentum runs out and the ball starts falling through the support. So far though, the response has not been huge.

Now we have made this pattern, those holding longs will want to be getting out as close to break even as possible, and those foolish enough to have got in near the 1 or 3 levels will be quite worried, having got in right at the top and there is every indication that the lower highs and lower lows signal the beginning of a downtrend. Those who got in close to point 2 fading the support level will be ditching their trades. I expect a large number of sell stop orders will be placed below the black line as the break of this level will confirm the creation of another lower high above, further fulfilling the definition of a downtrend.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 18112008gbpusds+r.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #6,071
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:46pm Nov 18, 2008 6:46pm
Quoting birdt
Head and shoulders patterns are possibly the most reliable and most recognizable (perhaps these are correlated) conventional technical formation going IMO....

Spot on as usual. Btw 1-2-3 is kinda always part of H&S. I guess someone with a lot better MM than me could make piles of money, just trading off of these and their inverted projections of course, using them as heads-up confirmation patterns bouncing off important S&R levels. This is how I try to gauge the validity, risk:return and type of trade I am about to make, when trend-hopping by shorting rallies, buying sell-offs ONLY in the direction of the main-trend. If I am to place a range/band/volatility/top_bottom type of trade, these patterns show almost always the prevalent sentiment towards the eventual charge of the top or bottom you are trying to trade. If you are waiting on a break-out of a level, don't hold your breath for such one if you see Ms and Ws flashing in front of you. To me thats like an impeding kick to the face...I try to avoid it.

Lotsa luck to all !
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,072
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:47pm Nov 18, 2008 6:47pm
Quoting djambazov84
GBP/USD H1 chart. Is that head and shoulders or what ?
I hope my imagination is not playing tricks on me but looks like price is retested neckline @ 1.4979 twice and is not about to break down away from 1.4950.


Would love to hear some comments on that.
I only look at head and shoulders if it is so clear I dont have to ask. I am watching this still from yesterday. If you notice, there is diagonal trend line crossing horizontal and it has bounced, but just up to horizontal at 971 area. As I keep saying though, if it comes through that line the support is really 901 level. I am only looking at the cross, never take the trend line as valid break. If cant grasp that dont use it at all. Anyway, my focus is still on the up and I could well be wrong. If it goes south I will look for up around 549. All in all, pretty quiet. Incidently the usdjpy had same cross at 96.27 and went back to 97.18. It is now bouncing a little again, although a bounce today could be a bit strong of a word. hope this helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #6,073
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:51pm Nov 18, 2008 6:51pm
Gee Birdt. That was great assessment. thanks for sharing as I have learned something new again. I will watch that now and see where it goes
  • #6,074
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:53pm Nov 18, 2008 6:53pm
Can I ask, how long does this play stay on the books. When would you consider it has not eventuated and dismiss the pattern
  • #6,075
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:53pm Nov 18, 2008 6:53pm
Quoting linalm
Hello everyone,

I am stuck trying to understand the correlations between currencies and other markets. Related to the highlighted text in the above quote, would you please spell it out for me what the excellent trade would be when EUR/USD is at resistance at the same time the Dollar Index is at support? Is that setup favoring a long on EUR/USD or a short?

And also, would you be so kind to point me in the direction where I can read more about correlations between currencies and other markets. I've been carefully studying the posts in this thread...
1. This is when you try to decide whether to fade or go with a breakouts of important levels. The example would most likely imply a Dollar long, since sometimes currency pairs DO catch-up, relative to some other major index such as DX, Bond Yields, Libor and such. I hope I got that right

2. Correlations always change, but basic info on that would be to just google "currency correlations". I`m sure that it will come up with plenty of good and informative web-sites. I got acquainted with these that way
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,076
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:01pm Nov 18, 2008 7:01pm
FYI if you have a look, most if not all the majors are in really identifiable patterns respecting trendlines. Prime setups for big breakouts. Still more room to consolidate though.
  • #6,077
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:03pm Nov 18, 2008 7:03pm
Quoting smittens4212
FYI if you have a look, most if not all the majors are in really identifiable patterns respecting trendlines. Prime setups for big breakouts. Still more room to consolidate though.
Wonder if that would be dollar negative or positive, because it could be a huge breakout.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #6,078
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:09pm Nov 18, 2008 7:09pm
Quoting Tori
Can I ask, how long does this play stay on the books. When would you consider it has not eventuated and dismiss the pattern
It's not really a set-up that I would necessarily take to be honest, because the stop would have to be above the most recent swing high, which would make the stop at least 80 pips away and the R:R using the next support level below as a TP would be around 2:1, which might be acceptable for some but I believe we should be looking for at least 4:1, even if this sacrifices some of the success rate. A possible strategy is to manage the trade and enter on the break, if the theory does play out and the trade flies then great, but be mindful that there is a high probability (around 80%) that a pullback will come back to at least break even when the wave following the break of the swing low ends. If there does not appear to be a cluster of orders there, and it will be fairly obvious if there are, then get out what you can, get your stop to break even ASAP as you do not want to get married to a trade in no man's land when price is not conforming to your trading plan.

The pattern is invalidated if the most recent high is exceeded, as then we would have made a bullish 1-2-3. Also if price consolidates for a long time then I would no longer hold such a strong bearish bias based on this pattern.

Joe Ross does a great job of explaining the 1-2-3 and Ross Hook.

http://www.trading-naked.com/library/Law_of_Charts.pdf

These aren't no brainers but they should give you an idea of trend analysis and where clusters of orders may be. I found it helped me see the market in a different way, perhaps it will do the same for you.
  • #6,079
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:24pm Nov 18, 2008 7:24pm
Birdt. Thanks so much for that. was waiting. while printing out your info to read thoroughly, I watched price come down to almost my 091 line, and took the rebound up to where it is now. cool. always ready to learn new things.
  • #6,080
  • Nov 18, 2008 11:06pm Nov 18, 2008 11:06pm
Looks like the 1.4951 Yellow line is holding up. price has to move one way or the other eventually I would think...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008-11-19-gu.jpg Size: 110 KB
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
2 traders viewing now