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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,861
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:22pm Nov 17, 2008 12:22pm
Quoting baco75
I agree with the closing of the trade. I f you look at the 4H I think GBPUSD is at least retesting the 21 before going up. That's your rule!!
Yes you are 100% correct. Next setup is to wait for the 21ema to become support and then upwards we wait for.
  • #17,862
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:44pm Nov 17, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting time1300
hello lads,

i had been waiting to buy the usd/cad after seeing it fill the gap and had bounced off the channel line. Was waiting for the macd signal confirmation. But instead of getting one to the upside, WE got a zero bounce to the downside with aggressive breakout.

Short @ 1.2157
S/L @ 1.2210
T/P @ 1.2060
how come you and Phil, dont use the macd line, and signal line on the macd indicator?
  • #17,863
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:53pm Nov 17, 2008 12:53pm
I followed GBPUSD from the morning ( Missed closing GAP ), but i didn't missed the break of resistance level at 1.4950!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #17,864
  • Nov 17, 2008 1:32pm Nov 17, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting big_pipin
how come you and Phil, dont use the macd line, and signal line on the macd indicator?

This trade was handled as a breakout trade that is part of the system. On page one there is a reference to a pdf and mp3 on breakout trades.
  • #17,865
  • Nov 17, 2008 1:51pm Nov 17, 2008 1:51pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
This trade was handled as a breakout trade that is part of the system. On page one there is a reference to a pdf and mp3 on breakout trades.
From the pdf file I looked at, you follow strickly the histogram patterns. You didnt talk about ADX indicator , and I noticed that some of the people on this thread have added that to their charts, what is your experience with ADX if anything?

Also on your PDF, you have a chart with a black box. Inside the box, trades 3, and 4 seem that a short there was very risky, as there was little to no retracement, and trend seemed very strong, I guess my main concern is, HOW do you know when macd has topped, and its safe to take the trade? Thanks
  • #17,866
  • Nov 17, 2008 1:57pm Nov 17, 2008 1:57pm
Quoting big_pipin
From the pdf file I looked at, you follow strickly the histogram patterns. You didnt talk about ADX indicator , and I noticed that some of the people on this thread have added that to their charts, what is your experience with ADX if anything? Thanks

big pipin: The ADX was added as a 1hr entry on high probability set-ups on the 4hr chart and was not included in the original pdf. You can take a look at the website for the 1hr entry info. It's pretty straightforward...
  • #17,867
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:43pm Nov 17, 2008 3:43pm
Quoting big_pipin
how come you and Phil, dont use the macd line, and signal line on the macd indicator?
As phillip stated, yes that was a breakout trades and also if you do notice the chart I attached, it's the 1H chart and i entered after a zero bounce on the MACD so I had confluence of events, I had a MACD signal and also had a breakout formation.
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  • #17,868
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:02pm Nov 17, 2008 4:02pm
Where did you come up with the 5,13,1 setting for macd?
  • #17,869
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:24pm Nov 17, 2008 4:24pm
Quoting big_pipin
Where did you come up with the 5,13,1 setting for macd?
I'm pretty sure that came from Phillip's two years of studying...

I took the Yen short on the ADX DM- cross as the 4hr was coming down from the resistance line as was the 1hr. Entered on a sell limit order of 96.75.

Took out 30 on the first, still holding two floating at 36. Anything under 30 and I'll exit one more and move the last to b/e. Odd time of day right now. Looking at 96.00 as a target...
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  • #17,870
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:37pm Nov 17, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting Palmer
Watching the yen....
Hi Palmer, started looking at the yen after your post, and i think its paying off right about now. The down trend seem to persist. Also take a look at the daily chart, TC is also quite valid.
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  • #17,871
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:49pm Nov 17, 2008 4:49pm
I agree...This is the daily and it can be easily mistaken for a 4hr chart given the original 4hr 'rules'...trend is clearly down even the the 4hr is a little bit constricted given the moving averages....
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  • #17,872
  • Nov 17, 2008 6:39pm Nov 17, 2008 6:39pm
took out one at 96.35 for 70 total so far...last one at b/e....
  • #17,873
  • Nov 18, 2008 1:55am Nov 18, 2008 1:55am
Looks like I missed my entry we were watching yesterday. I would have taken the 1H TC on with SL back to trend line about 55 Pips. I was asleep, did anyone else catch it?
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  • #17,874
  • Nov 18, 2008 2:27am Nov 18, 2008 2:27am
i'm long from 5027
  • #17,875
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:14am Nov 18, 2008 3:14am
I managed to find some data from 1994 and 1995 for GBPUSD. I just want to say that it is possible to find the same kind of rythm back then and the same type of emotion, fear and greed. It is also nice how EMA89 became first support and then the graph followed the same type of rythm with retracement and trend continuation.
I don't want to reload the old discussion but just to say that a discretionary trader can win using the system and also that the experience in identifying good trades counts more than this system.
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  • #17,876
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:25am Nov 18, 2008 3:25am
tc in H1
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  • #17,877
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:52am Nov 18, 2008 3:52am
And a bigger picture.
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  • #17,878
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:58am Nov 18, 2008 3:58am
Quoting neilbuc
Looks like I missed my entry we were watching yesterday. I would have taken the 1H TC on with SL back to trend line about 55 Pips. I was asleep, did anyone else catch it?
There was a bullish TC on 4H timeframe also with SL<50 pips, but it formed on the closure of 00-04:00 bar (GMT+1), so I also missed this one. And 1 bar later I decided to stay out, mainly because the 1st bar after the signal appeared to be rather small - TC wasn't followed by a strong move (though one who, maybe, entered would be at least in BE). Was this decision correct or the situation was worth entering 1 bar later after the TC on 4H?
  • #17,879
  • Nov 18, 2008 4:05am Nov 18, 2008 4:05am
It look like Diamond. If break upper line occure, first goal 89EMA.
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  • #17,880
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:26am Nov 18, 2008 7:26am
Good morning Ladies and Gentlemen,

While studying the charts over the weekend, and knowing how volatile the markets have been, I studied some commodity driven currencies such as usd/cad, nzd/usd and aus/usd and noticed even though there still exists some volatility, it is significantly less than the eur, gbp and yen currencies. Stop loss seems to be less volatile with the MACD signal. This ofcourse is not a definite observation but one that I noticed over the weekend.

thought maybe those that study a less volatile currency pair until our markets settle down again, might look into these. Let me think what you guys think..
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