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  • #6,001
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:51pm Nov 17, 2008 4:51pm
Hi Folks,
How are you all? In both daily charts USD/CHF and EU/$ has inside bars. What is your opinion- will it be better to go long on EU/$ or short USD/CHF if inside bar scenario to play out?

Insight in this regard will be highly appreciated.

Thank ya all
BANDA333
  • #6,002
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:04pm Nov 17, 2008 5:04pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Folks,
How are you all? In both daily charts USD/CHF and EU/$ has inside bars. What is your opinion- will it be better to go long on EU/$ or short USD/CHF if inside bar scenario to play out?

Insight in this regard will be highly appreciated.

Thank ya all

I think USD/CHF will head down. It seems to be right at a well respected S/R level on the Daily.
  • #6,003
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:20pm Nov 17, 2008 5:20pm
Hi libb,
Thank-you very much for the input.
Happy piping


Quoting libb
I think USD/CHF will head down. It seems to be right at a well respected S/R level on the Daily.
BANDA333
  • #6,004
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:07pm Nov 17, 2008 7:07pm
Long EURUSD at 1.2600, at H4 bucket, also Nov 14/week close at 1.2574 and lower TL is approaching somewhere in the mid 1.2580s

Target = 1.2700

SL = 1.2560
  • #6,005
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:15pm Nov 17, 2008 7:15pm
Quoting smittens4212
Long EURUSD at 1.2600, at H4 bucket, also Nov 14/week close at 1.2574 and lower TL is approaching somewhere in the mid 1.2580s

Target = 1.2700

SL = 1.2560

thanks smittens
  • #6,006
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:50pm Nov 17, 2008 7:50pm
Here's an accompanying chart to show you what I'm looking at, where my target is, etc.

Edit: Also, it's not on the chart, but 1.2598 is the 61.8 retracement of the opening bar of the week (last night) to today's highs. Lately I've stopped putting fibs on my chart because of the clutter, but I do still use them. This one just added a nice bit of confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur2.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #6,007
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:01pm Nov 17, 2008 8:01pm
Quoting smittens4212
Long EURUSD at 1.2600, at H4 bucket, also Nov 14/week close at 1.2574 and lower TL is approaching somewhere in the mid 1.2580s

Target = 1.2700

SL = 1.2560
reversal .618 fib also
  • #6,008
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:13pm Nov 17, 2008 8:13pm
I only have one question to ask. Today my grass is growing faster than these charts are moving. How do you decide if it is worth the risk, and time to put a trade on; When it moves so slowly often if is not following projections that have been so carefully assessed. It dribbles up and down, and it is easy to be in drawdown for hours. Do you just put it on and set stop and forget it. Do you assess what kind of day it appears to be and then decide to give it a miss. I would be interested because it can be very frustrating.
  • #6,009
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:46pm Nov 17, 2008 8:46pm
Quoting Tori
I only have one question to ask. Today my grass is growing faster than these charts are moving. How do you decide if it is worth the risk, and time to put a trade on; When it moves so slowly often if is not following projections that have been so carefully assessed. It dribbles up and down, and it is easy to be in drawdown for hours. Do you just put it on and set stop and forget it. Do you assess what kind of day it appears to be and then decide to give it a miss. I would be interested because it can be very frustrating.
I'm also very interested in this question if anyone can answer. Just to add to it, what do you need to keep in mind when entering a trade on a pair in trading hours that are known to have less pip movement?
  • #6,010
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:21pm Nov 17, 2008 9:21pm
Hi,

You didn't mention what time of day you were referring to in your post, which could be quite pertinent. The volatility in these markets will vary for all sorts of reasons, one of which is the time of day.

For instance, 00:00 GMT is thought by some to be the slowest time of the day, because the London/European session is closed, the US session is closed and the Asian session, generally the least active, is just getting going. On the opposite side, 13:00 to about 16:00 GMT might be the most volatile because the London/European and the New York markets, which are the most active, are both open.

Other aspects of course are the news events which will often stir up things. Or the upcoming news events, which may really slow things down, as traders sit back and refuse to take new positions until the news is released. Then there is the end of week and end of month which will slow things down too.

Another thought might be the overall perception of traders w.r.t what is going on in the markets. As traders swing back and forth from risk adversion to risk acceptance, there may be a lull in between. I am not sure I have ever observed this; but it just came to my mind.

So, there is no particular answer to your question; the market will do as it will and it is simply our job to deal with it in the best way that we can. I doubt if this will help much, but it was fun thinking about it.
  • #6,011
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:28pm Nov 17, 2008 9:28pm
We're more than 200 pips off this level, but it never hurts to be prepared. This level looks like a text book No-Brainer. It also has some historical significance with a daily low in March and some action back in '05.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCHF.jpg Size: 128 KB
  • #6,012
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:35pm Nov 17, 2008 10:35pm
Did I draw this S/R line correctly? Yellow line on GU chart 1H. Looks like Resistance has turned support or is it too soon to make that call?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2008-11-17-gu.jpg Size: 104 KB
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #6,013
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:31pm Nov 17, 2008 11:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 16 KB
Quoting LasVahGoose
Did I draw this S/R line correctly? Yellow line on GU chart 1H. Looks like Resistance has turned support or is it too soon to make that call?
Looks pretty good to me. As far as whether it has turned support or not, I would say possibly although the diabonal trend line is a way down and I would just notice that as well. If it goes up I am looking at 1.5076 first, then 1.5271 as top based on 4 hr chart. I would be looking at sell from there as a good trade, going up might be slow but could get a short up to 76. really dont know. Not the optimal place. If it was coming from 1.4775 I would be excited. Hope this okay as it is only my opinion.
  • #6,014
  • Nov 18, 2008 12:20am Nov 18, 2008 12:20am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 16 KB


You know it is great posting these charts because you learn so much. When I said I would rather come from lower trendline I should have added, I believe BRV would say that trendline is not actually meant as S/R, even though it has bounced off there a few times. What I would do is assess when it gets there and if it looks like heading lower it is really the main support line that is valid. The diagonal works best when it actually crosses a horizontal line. If anyone would like to correct me please do. I have learned so much by doing these postings, and welcome any holes in my summary.
  • #6,015
  • Edited 2:47am Nov 18, 2008 1:46am | Edited 2:47am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 16 KB


playing out nicely
This had nice 60 pip jump to 076. reckon it will go again. I have higher target penciled in.
  • #6,016
  • Edited 2:30am Nov 18, 2008 1:51am | Edited 2:30am
Heads /up on cable (and GY) bouncing on yesterdays high .. stoch conf perfect little bounce..20 pips in 3 minutes..nice..


0910 trying breakout again..hitting resistance

0927 Anyone catch that pop on Cable GY or E$?
  • #6,017
  • Nov 18, 2008 3:44am Nov 18, 2008 3:44am
Quoting speedarad
Open fibo properties.
Click on fibo levels.
On Description type: %$

Click OK

That should do it.
Thank you and thanks to a_b and Grath also. It's much easier to spot the levels now.
  • #6,018
  • Nov 18, 2008 4:20am Nov 18, 2008 4:20am
I was wondering if anyone could tell me something about the dollar index. I read about it and wonder if the usd versus different currencies, goes in the same direction as the dollar index, or perhaps it has no real correlation at all.I know it is high at the moment, and so it is here, but when index falls, does that automatically affect us.
  • #6,019
  • Nov 18, 2008 4:42am Nov 18, 2008 4:42am
is that G/U would climb up to 1.52, would be pretty obvious sell for me (tho, i think it might reject at 1.5060~)... as for E/U i stay out for now, i dont see much opportunies in there, and definetly not going for long. E/G i am looking for singal that would clearly tell me that 0.8415 has turned as res, then i am short U/C is my wild card, but not much happening there for now, rejecting highs.. would like to see pullback to 1.1940~, would trigger my buy ... as for now just some speculation, what are you thinking?
  • #6,020
  • Nov 18, 2008 5:06am Nov 18, 2008 5:06am
Quoting spot
is that G/U would climb up to 1.52, would be pretty obvious sell for me (tho, i think it might reject at 1.5060~)... as for E/U i stay out for now, i dont see much opportunies in there, and definetly not going for long. E/G i am looking for singal that would clearly tell me that 0.8415 has turned as res, then i am short U/C is my wild card, but not much happening there for now, rejecting highs.. would like to see pullback to 1.1940~, would trigger my buy ... as for now just some speculation, what are you thinking?
Spot, I'm seeing virtually nothing at the moment. Annoyingly. G/U has decent resistance at 1.5262, and a little at 1.5200, but that whopping great downward TL may make 200 the better option. Not sure we'll see it for a while tho.

Poss downward break on JPY that's bunched up into a range, repeatedly bouncing off 96.17. Got to break sometime soon...
U/C, snap. Doesn't seem to be doing much at all now, and it'd have to break really hard above those highs before I believed it was a proper break.
EU. long 1.2529 would be good, and I'd take other shorts at 730 definitely, 675 poss.
Bah... sitting on my hands!
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