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  • #5,961
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:11am Nov 17, 2008 11:11am
The one thing about TLs I can offer advice to is watch to make sure they are legitimate, obvious trend lines.

It's very easy to 'connect the dots' to see a trade when they don't actually exist. Same thing with fibs. It's very easy to place them in various areas and then find confluence when it's not a level people are actually watching.

You can find almost any confluence when drawing S&R, fibs, TLs. The key is to find the RIGHT confluence.
  • #5,962
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:17am Nov 17, 2008 11:17am
Quoting smittens4212
The one thing about TLs I can offer advice to is watch to make sure they are legitimate, obvious trend lines.

It's very easy to 'connect the dots' to see a trade when they don't actually exist. Same thing with fibs. It's very easy to place them in various areas and then find confluence when it's not a level people are actually watching.

You can find almost any confluence when drawing S&R, fibs, TLs. The key is to find the RIGHT confluence.

Hello smittens,
I Think about this often.What would you say is the best way to find the right confluence?I would say make sure you are dealing with higher timeframes,and just the obviuos huh?Nothing more to it then that?
  • #5,963
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:20am Nov 17, 2008 11:20am
I'm new at trend lines so I hope that I don't cause any new traders to get on the wrong path. Honestly, I think trend lines can be used as tool and that highs don't have to perfectly connect. My trend line here is kind of against the rules I think as the text book preaches. But all the same, price came back to test and bounced on the instant. This indicates that this incorrect trend is being respected by the market. Any way, please no one else do it this way because I think its against the rules.
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  • #5,964
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:22am Nov 17, 2008 11:22am
Looks like we're approaching that 1.2748-1.27550 level BRV posted earlier on EUR/USD
  • #5,965
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:28am Nov 17, 2008 11:28am
Quoting jlmac27
Hello smittens,
I Think about this often.What would you say is the best way to find the right confluence?I would say make sure you are dealing with higher timeframes,and just the obviuos huh?Nothing more to it then that?
This is my opinion so please don't take it as fact. The market is always different. The mindset of each serious player of the market varies from day to day. So for example if some big shot wants to get long today for some reason or another he may use a very minor support and blast right through your super long term confluence area. Thats what kind of sucks about the market. The setup that looks great may cause a instant stop-out and the set-up that looks really ify may be an instant 100+ pipper. That's why one must be on top of sentiment so you know which condition the market is in at this specific moment. This is really difficult to do with out quality industry contacts. My broker has some stupid chat that tries to do this job but it seems like the information network isn't so good. The real question is how can us at-home guys keep abreast with the true sentiment.
  • #5,966
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:36am Nov 17, 2008 11:36am
Looking to go short @ 1.2750 - 1.2780.... we will see
  • #5,967
  • Edited 11:49am Nov 17, 2008 11:38am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting jlmac27
Hello smittens,
I Think about this often.What would you say is the best way to find the right confluence?I would say make sure you are dealing with higher timeframes,and just the obviuos huh?Nothing more to it then that?
I think GW nailed it. But yes, I think higher timeframes help, and basically the idea that you should be able to post a chart on a wall so to speak and be able to instantly identify key levels. Anything else and it could be looking into the market too much for what you want instead of letting the market dictate what it will give.

Anyways, as for your TLs GW, I draw them through highs/lows sometimes when they seem to be obeying it. It is all about the market sentiment, and the more I hear from experienced traders who have worked at banks or funds, the more I hear stories of so-and-so trader who used only RSI signals to successfully trade-- the kicker being that he only used the RSI signals when they went with the direction the trader expected the market to move. I think to maximize success, S&R, TLs, and fibs should be treated the same. Take counter-trend moves for what they're worth, a decent number of pips, and ride trend following moves until sentiment and technicals change. More and more it seems like having a grip on what the market is doing is that much more important than being able to identify the levels. The levels are everywhere, the reasons for a big movement can be justified by almost anything.

FYI I'm short EURUSD at 1.2740. I was looking for it to touch the Tl around 1.2750, but it was being held up around there, so I pulled the trigger.

SL of 50 pips, target is 1.2600.

At work so I can't monitor it too much but hopefully that gives it enough room to breathe if my call is correct.
  • #5,968
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:38am Nov 17, 2008 11:38am
Quoting spot
Looking to go short @ 1.2750 - 1.2780.... we will see

how come as high as 1.2780?
  • #5,969
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:41am Nov 17, 2008 11:41am
any one get this trade. I missed this one as well. I got to start watching eur/jpy more closely
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  • #5,970
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:42am Nov 17, 2008 11:42am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short GBP/USD 1.5075 area (10 pip range)

Been staring at this one for some time now, but just watch to make sure the break of 1.5000 isn't too powerful to knock it out. Should hold for something, though I would believe. Plenty of time now for order to stack up around this area.
Not bad....+75 pips so far......if you want to hear my horror story about how I missed this trade I can fill you in later but thankfully I trade full time so I can make it up soon enough .
  • #5,971
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:43am Nov 17, 2008 11:43am
Just in case.. well, i think 1.2750 could have done it, oh, well, seems like it dipped trough 1.2720, might find ress from there, so, seems like that train went, well, i will continue sitting on my thumbs
  • #5,972
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:45am Nov 17, 2008 11:45am
Quoting spot
Just in case.. well, i think 1.2750 could have done it, oh, well, seems like it dipped trough 1.2720, might find ress from there, so, seems like that train went, well, i will continue sitting on my thumbs
Yeah this what what I posted earlier today - confluence with the diagonal trendline.....it just hit it and failing for now. My oanda quotes hit it on the head, but my other platforms arent recording it yet.
  • #5,973
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:46am Nov 17, 2008 11:46am
Thanks for the reply guys.I agree with the sentiment part as well smittens.How do you guys get an over all sentiment of the market?What do you think is the least complicated and direct source of this?
  • #5,974
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:53am Nov 17, 2008 11:53am
In case anyone is wondering why I felt the GBPUSD had room to go to 5075 earlier, I was actually waiting for another significant level to hit on the GBPJPY, and in this case, both were hit on the dot. No idea where it goes from here as this is not a clean bounce-off which I like to see. In any case, I would treat this as a scalp as I'm still on a bit of a long bias.

For EURUSD the only clear resistance I have seems to be around 1.2790-2800. I like the resistance lines on my EJ a bit more.
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I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,975
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:54am Nov 17, 2008 11:54am
Quoting jlmac27
Thanks for the reply guys.I agree with the sentiment part as well smittens.How do you guys get an over all sentiment of the market?What do you think is the least complicated and direct source of this?
your charts
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #5,976
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:55am Nov 17, 2008 11:55am
Quoting jlmac27
Thanks for the reply guys.I agree with the sentiment part as well smittens.How do you guys get an over all sentiment of the market?What do you think is the least complicated and direct source of this?
i think its impossible. good information isn't given freely. it the good ole' boy network. its really who you know. i think there is a squawk service for foreign exchange and fixed income combined that is broadcasted from Chicago. they shoot the shit with traders all day long. this may be the best thing availabe.
  • #5,977
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:03pm Nov 17, 2008 12:03pm
Quoting jlmac27
Thanks for the reply guys.I agree with the sentiment part as well smittens.How do you guys get an over all sentiment of the market?What do you think is the least complicated and direct source of this?
For me, it's basically just reading about the markets, and using what information is publicly available (bloomberg, etc.-- we've been through these before) to try to figure out what the market is thinking, combined with the charts. If the EURUSD is in the midst of a 500 pip rally, I'm going to be looking for shorts, and depending on where and when the short is, it could be to scalp 50 pips, or it could be to ride a retracement for 200 pips. It's not an exact science, and I think it is the one area where there's really no substitute for screen time and experience. I work in operations and literally watch the market all day, on top of checking the charts and occasionally getting a trade in mid-day. It helps me digest what is going on and why, and I hope to only get better in taking in the information and using it to good use.
  • #5,978
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:09pm Nov 17, 2008 12:09pm
Quoting smittens4212
For me, it's basically just reading about the markets, and using what information is publicly available (bloomberg, etc.-- we've been through these before) to try to figure out what the market is thinking, combined with the charts. If the EURUSD is in the midst of a 500 pip rally, I'm going to be looking for shorts, and depending on where and when the short is, it could be to scalp 50 pips, or it could be to ride a retracement for 200 pips. It's not an exact science, and I think it is the one area where there's really no substitute for screen time...
smittens i 100% agree with you. i'm in the same boat with you. however, if one day your going to be a big shot in the currency market it can help to know whats really going on. charts and price are only shadows of whats really going on. its wise to try to build a network of contacts that will help you if their in the know. any way for most of us we only have our charts
  • #5,979
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:11pm Nov 17, 2008 12:11pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
i think its impossible. good information isn't given freely. it the good ole' boy network. its really who you know. i think there is a squawk service for foreign exchange and fixed income combined that is broadcasted from Chicago. they shoot the shit with traders all day long. this may be the best thing availabe.
I hear what your saying,This is not public radio I take it?I get all chicago stations from where I live.djambazov84,I think this is about all we have isn't it.I truly think that is all we need,it's just getting the feel for the charts.
I must say since I have been following along with this thread,that has been coming together a little more.I have about 14 months into this crazy market,another 2-3 years maybe all the effort will pay off!I think at this point to me it is more about the acomplishment then the money pushing me forward to make it.Believe though I won't complain about the money if I get there.
  • #5,980
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:19pm Nov 17, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
smittens i 100% agree with you. i'm in the same boat with you. however, if one day your going to be a big shot in the currency market it can help to know whats really going on. charts and price are only shadows of whats really going on. its wise to try to build a network of contacts that will help you if their in the know. any way for most of us we only have our charts
Of course, but realistically that's not a viable option for many of us. The only way I'd be able to build contacts is through grad school, which I am looking at for the near future, but I don't personally know anyone who trades other than a former professor. All my information and learning comes from what I can glean from reading books, the internet (mostly this thread), and watching the markets and charts in real time day-in and day-out. Even in the short period I've been trading S&R with a fundamental outlook, I've noticed how much I've improved in regards to trade accuracy, patience, etc. Trading full time is a long-term prospect, but persistence is key.
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