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  • #5,941
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:26am Nov 17, 2008 8:26am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Just posting this for educational purposes. Another textbook pattern in eur/jpy. Bull pivot off a gap. Plus the gap was in the middle of an important range. To bad I was not alert for this pattern.
what's this texkbook pattern tell us?
  • #5,942
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:28am Nov 17, 2008 8:28am
Probably made the mistake of the day closed that yen trade on a near pivot off the gap. I decided that I was up 50 pips pretty fast and I didn't want to give the equity market the chance to take it way when it opens in a few minutes.
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  • #5,943
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:29am Nov 17, 2008 8:29am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Verno....this was a little bit of a strange trade actually. 1.2700 lined up with the 4pm NY close on Friday (much less important than 5pm close), not to mention its just a good round number. I saw that price kept rejecting it, so I went short at it on the third attempt actually (on a smaller, 5 min timeframe) when I saw that it kept rejecting it.
Overall you're right though there's just not a lot of clean history in recent past for it, but sometimes these double zero areas dont really require it. Anytime there are double zeros on the horizon...
BRV, I was interested as I shorted it myself based on prior S/R and an indicator that I am starting to watch. I was more interested that you seem to put more emphasis on the recent highs / lows in the opposite trend. I guess if you do this across timeframes then you get some good levels.

I am essentially trying to refine what I am looking for and think this helps.

Thanks
  • #5,944
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:30am Nov 17, 2008 8:30am
Quoting moneybookers
what's this texkbook pattern tell us?
the text book pattern is from candlestick analysis. A window, open or closed can be used as semi-meaningful support or resistance.
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  • #5,945
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:57am Nov 17, 2008 8:57am
Quoting Guerrillawar
the text book pattern is from candlestick analysis. A window, open or closed can be used as semi-meaningful support or resistance.
Weird day today. Dollar AND equities down. Did not expect to see this one in a long time.
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #5,946
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:16am Nov 17, 2008 9:16am
Quoting djambazov84
Weird day today. Dollar AND equities down. Did not expect to see this one in a long time.
Earlier during the London session I had a kind of hard time getting in tune or rhythm with the market. I think this is most important thing to trading. If one remains static and just relies on their levels, its possible to make money but one definitely won't be an excellent trader.

I hope the correlation between currencies and the equity markets decouples already. I'm much more a technical based trader and this correlation in my opinion causes more harm than good for the patterns. I really enjoyed the past when the correlation to the equity markets was limited to the yen and chf. I haven't been to happy when basically everything started to move in near lockstep with the S&P. S&P as a market is one big pain in the ass to trade based on technicals. This is a market that trades more off order flow.
  • #5,947
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:24am Nov 17, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Earlier during the London session I had a kind of hard time getting in tune or rhythm with the market. I think this is most important thing to trading. If one remains static and just relies on their levels, its possible to make money but one definitely won't be an excellent trader.

I hope the correlation between currencies and the equity markets decouples already. I'm much more a technical based trader and this correlation in my opinion causes more harm than good for the patterns. I really enjoyed the past when the correlation to the equity markets...
One thing I cant ignore today is news of the Citi layoffs. That kind of number (50k or so) I wouldnt be surprised to send a decent ripple though the market as the day progresses. We're already getting an initial reaction here today but looking lower for the time being personally.

Not too sure of any decoupling just yet, though I have to agree we're seeing some early stages of it.....very minor though. The correlation still seems to be there as I believe it may until we really get out of hot water here. Risk is still the primary focus.
  • #5,948
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:29am Nov 17, 2008 9:29am
I know what you mean Guerrillawar. I trade the Bund and Schatz during the day and these last few months have been a real ball breaker. Not financially, more on the reasons for intra-day moves. The stock markets are controlling all the intraday swings. For example.... even when bullish news comes out like a rate cut... Stocks will rally causing the Bund and Schatz to sell-off. The Schatz is the 2yr and it sells off !!

Still, when one can adapt to market conditions you have to pat yourself on the back. Many traders find it hard to adapt their strategy and move fast enough to take everything into account.

Bravo, it's good to see people trading well.
  • #5,949
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:47am Nov 17, 2008 9:47am
Quoting Moxy_UK
I know what you mean Guerrillawar. I trade the Bund and Schatz during the day and these last few months have been a real ball breaker. Not financially, more on the reasons for intra-day moves. The stock markets are controlling all the intraday swings. For example.... even when bullish news comes out like a rate cut... Stocks will rally causing the Bund and Schatz to sell-off. The Schatz is the 2yr and it sells off !!

Still, when one can adapt to market conditions you have to pat yourself on the back. Many traders find it hard to adapt their strategy...
Why did you decide to trade fixed income? Or is it simply your job at your firm? I have some friends in Chicago that only trade fixed income and they tell me i should migrate over? I also met some guys from London that trade the spreads between the bunds,bobl, and schatz. The one thing in common is that these guys make a hell of a lot of money. The fixed income market although slower lends it self really well for advanced risk management. And if risk can be properly managed one can deploy much larger sums of money. Thats the problem with foreign exchange yeah you get these great movements and patterns. But I would never feel relaxed putting out large sum into the market like what these guys do in the fixed income market.
  • #5,950
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:52am Nov 17, 2008 9:52am
BRV

Did I miss the gpbusd short from 1.5058 on my charts?
I was waiting for 75-65...

Will it come back for the orders waiting there?
  • #5,951
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:53am Nov 17, 2008 9:53am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Why did you decide to trade fixed income? Or is it simply your job at your firm? I have some friends in Chicago that only trade fixed income and they tell me i should migrate over? I also met some guys from London that trade the spreads between the bunds,bobl, and schatz. The one thing in common is that these guys make a hell of a lot of money. The fixed income market although slower lends it self really well for advanced risk management. And if risk can be properly managed one can deploy much larger sums of money. Thats the problem with foreign...
I'm trading for a prop firm from home so I like to trade FX on my own account. For me it's two different styles of trading. Forex helps keep the mind busy whilst looking for scalp trades on the Bund and Schatz.
  • #5,952
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:08am Nov 17, 2008 10:08am
Little bucket on the UJ around 97.00
  • #5,953
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:09am Nov 17, 2008 10:09am
Quoting Moxy_UK
I'm trading for a prop firm from home so I like to trade FX on my own account. For me it's two different styles of trading. Forex helps keep the mind busy whilst looking for scalp trades on the Bund and Schatz.
Are you trading technically or are you using some advanced order flow technology to "read the tape"?
  • #5,954
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:29am Nov 17, 2008 10:29am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Are you trading technically or are you using some advanced order flow technology to "read the tape"?
I use the Market Profile (MP) charts for entries and watch the order book. Nothing too fancy. Just use MP to confirm S/R for entries on small TF's. Keeping stops between 3 and 5 ticks.

The S/R on the Forex 1hr+ TF's is much more enjoyable though. I love the simplicity of this style of trading. It either works or it doesn't. When i fails.. just roll onto the next trade
  • #5,955
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:45am Nov 17, 2008 10:45am
Quoting Moxy_UK
I use the Market Profile (MP) charts for entries and watch the order book. Nothing too fancy. Just use MP to confirm S/R for entries on small TF's. Keeping stops between 3 and 5 ticks.

The S/R on the Forex 1hr+ TF's is much more enjoyable though. I love the simplicity of this style of trading. It either works or it doesn't. When i fails.. just roll onto the next trade

I enjoy trading currencies as well. I really get enjoyment studying the patterns. I get great satisfaction seeing my forward analysis turn into reality. For me its not even work, pattern recognition is my true calling. My wife thinks I'm nuts the time I spend on the markets.

How do you feel about working for your firm compared to trading on your own? This coming spring I'm going to take a job in chicago and work on a currency futures desk right inside the merc building. I'm kind of nervous that I won't like it and trading will turn into a 9-5 for me instead of a calling. But its my chance to go big time so I gotta give it a try.
  • #5,956
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:46am Nov 17, 2008 10:46am
Quoting ady27
BRV

Did I miss the gpbusd short from 1.5058 on my charts?
I was waiting for 75-65...

Will it come back for the orders waiting there?
I'm also confused what this one is doing. Maybe someone more experienced can chime in.
  • #5,957
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:47am Nov 17, 2008 10:47am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Short GBP/USD 1.5075 area (10 pip range)

Been staring at this one for some time now, but just watch to make sure the break of 1.5000 isn't too powerful to knock it out. Should hold for something, though I would believe. Plenty of time now for order to stack up around this area.
BRV, I was watching 5075 on the GBPUSD too and so far price has tested 5060/5066 twice on two separate hourly bars where I also have a fib placed. Just wondering if you'll take the trade still should price go up and hit 5075, or would you close out on such trades where price continues to hover around the level even after you've faded it assuming you are already in.

I won't be taking the trade on real money though I'm leaning towards the short after a 400pip cable run with no significant retracement and no important news to push it to the next significant level I have at 5270.

Your thoughts on this?
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,958
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:51am Nov 17, 2008 10:51am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Hi Verno....this was a little bit of a strange trade actually. 1.2700 lined up with the 4pm NY close on Friday (much less important than 5pm close), not to mention its just a good round number. I saw that price kept rejecting it, so I went short at it on the third attempt actually (on a smaller, 5 min timeframe) when I saw that it kept rejecting it.
Overall you're right though there's just not a lot of clean history in recent past for it, but sometimes these double zero areas dont really require it. Anytime there are double zeros on the horizon...
Hello, I'm still reading through the tread and learning to trade. I was wondering how do you tell if a movement is just a retracement or a "permanent" i.e. long term trend change? Specifically, on the GBP/USD pair. Looking at Daily / Weekly / Monthly the longer trend is down. The 4hr / 1hr the very short term is up. I'm expecting that the dollar rally will end soon and this trend will change from down to up. Just going with this hypothetically, what do I look for on the Chart that would be fairly conclusive evidence that the trend has turned long term and how to do you get in early on that trend change?
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #5,959
  • Nov 17, 2008 10:52am Nov 17, 2008 10:52am
Brv thanks for turning me onto these trend lines. There really is value in them if you know how to connect the dots and get an intersection between s&r and the trend line. For me is more for scalping than reversals. This aud/usd is a nice example. It looks like this time the trend line may bust but there were some nice scalps all day on this one.
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  • #5,960
  • Nov 17, 2008 11:09am Nov 17, 2008 11:09am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I enjoy trading currencies as well. I really get enjoyment studying the patterns. I get great satisfaction seeing my forward analysis turn into reality. For me its not even work, pattern recognition is my true calling. My wife thinks I'm nuts the time I spend on the markets.

How do you feel about working for your firm compared to trading on your own? This coming spring I'm going to take a job in chicago and work on a currency futures desk right inside the merc building. I'm kind of nervous that I won't like it and trading will turn into a 9-5...
Congrats on the the Job. It's great to here you will be doing a job you are passionate about. For me, I try to treat the two types of trading the same. Being based at home makes all my trading roll into one. I don't have any pressure from the prop firm although I do spend the majority of the day trading for them. I trade forex normally when the European markets are quiet.
I live quite a way from London so being based at home is great for me. No long journey into work etc... and get to spend lots of time with the family. There is a down side though .... I get to see the wife spend my money every single day !!
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