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  • #5,921
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:54am Nov 17, 2008 5:54am
I just noticed that usdchf chart back a few, has got confluence at 1.1891. I think I have found a new toy. wish I had noticed it earlier. I am not posting anymore tonight because I have said quite enough. hooray I can hear. hehe
  • #5,922
  • Nov 17, 2008 6:14am Nov 17, 2008 6:14am
Quoting Guerrillawar
The professional concerns himself with doing the right thing rather than with making money, knowing that the profit takes care of itself if the other things are attended to.


That is, he looks far ahead instead of considering the particular shot before him. It gets to be an instinct to play for position.

He was no novice in Wall Street, but he was thinking of the market from the point of view of the newspaper man and, incidentally, of the general public. The price certainly ought to go down on the news of inside selling.

The point I would...
Quite the nice selection here....sorry for the late response but I just got through reading all of these. For anyone that doesnt have this book, get it. Its a classic and for good reason. Speaking of books, I just plowed through "Market Wizards" over the weekend and was pretty impressed. Sort of a Dark Horse in terms of books and I wasn't expecting a lot of the value I got from going through it. I was pretty surprised to find a lof the actualities we discuss here get covered by many of these top traders.
  • #5,923
  • Nov 17, 2008 6:17am Nov 17, 2008 6:17am
Quoting Guerrillawar
This weekend I studied a liitle on trend lines. In the past I was stubborn thought they were a waste of time and are subjective. I have noticed from Brvs charts they are a vital part of his analysis and he leans on them at the right times. I thought I would post some trend line plays here and there. If any one has been using them for some time please try to correct me if its drawn incorrectly.
Hi GW, My biggest suggestion from this chart is connect your lows more precisely. Dont 'ambiguize' an area....they are good for bounces right to the pip usually. Connect them from the lowest lows, the bigger ones always holding greater significance.
  • #5,924
  • Nov 17, 2008 6:21am Nov 17, 2008 6:21am
Here's mine....just look for those exact hits. I wouldnt look to play any bounces off of this now, however (though they could work). More than 3 hits are usually a no go for me unless something else big is there or otherwise changing fundamentally.
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  • #5,925
  • Nov 17, 2008 6:32am Nov 17, 2008 6:32am
I didnt take these either wasn't paying attention to yen at the time or just not around but just to keep reinforcing the principle.
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  • #5,926
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:09am Nov 17, 2008 7:09am
Quoting Guerrillawar
This weekend I studied a liitle on trend lines. In the past I was stubborn thought they were a waste of time and are subjective. I have noticed from Brvs charts they are a vital part of his analysis and he leans on them at the right times. I thought I would post some trend line plays here and there. If any one has been using them for some time please try to correct me if its drawn incorrectly.
DeMark suggested a simple principle: start from the RIGHT side of the chart, identify a bar which has lower highs (for down TL) or higher lows (for up TL) to the left and right of it; then the next bar to the left which meets such criteria; connect them - that's the latest/current TL. But such "latest" TLs sometimes are less usefull that the "old" ones - some traders keep a strong "old" one and constantly adjust the "latest" ones.

Also, for a stronger TL, you can select "key" candles with TWO lower highs or higher lows on each side of each "key" candle.

Full article enclosed (I have extracts from DM's book - but his style is hard to desipher at times )
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TD LINES from FX Trader Sept 06.pdf   388 KB | 1,131 downloads
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,927
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:18am Nov 17, 2008 7:18am
We have a couple here on EUR - both drawn from 1 hr charts, the higher holding greater significance. Again look for that confluence of horizontal resistance to meet up with diagonal.....just flipping through charts today these stuck out at me. The safer trade is at the higher, I would lean, but both pretty clear if conditions allow price to move up here.
Price made a nice bounce off of the 4pm est close on Friday at 1.2700 today. In fact all the way up on this move today some very clear bounces off of these levels. 1.2600 was the 5pm close (more significant, more global and what I normally give the most weight to) and also got a reaction of about 30 pips. Also notice that once broke, price charged right through it.
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  • #5,928
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:23am Nov 17, 2008 7:23am
Quoting Forex007
DeMark suggested a simple principle: start from the RIGHT side of the chart, identify a bar which has lower highs (for down TL) or higher lows (for up TL) to the left and right of it; then the next bar to the left which meets such criteria; connect them - that's the latest/current TL. But such "latest" TLs sometimes are less usefull that the "old" ones - some traders keep a strong "old" one and constantly adjust the "latest" ones.

Also, for a stronger TL, you can select "key" candles with TWO lower highs or higher lows on each side of...
I got trained to do this learning from him and still do it when I identify these levels.

One thing I always discuss is that the levels created on the last move counter to the one you are trading hold up the best. By practicing your search this way you can easily wean out a lot of less significant price areas. Good reminder 007.
  • #5,929
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:26am Nov 17, 2008 7:26am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
We have a couple here on EUR - both drawn from 1 hr charts, the higher holding greater significance. Again look for that confluence of horizontal resistance to meet up with diagonal.....just flipping through charts today these stuck out at me. The safer trade is at the higher, I would lean, but both pretty clear if conditions allow price to move up here.
Price made a nice bounce off of the 4pm est close on Friday at 1.2700 today. In fact all the way up on this move today some very clear bounces off of these levels. 1.2600 was the 5pm close (more...
so we may have short order around 12750?
  • #5,930
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:30am Nov 17, 2008 7:30am
Quoting moneybookers
so we may have short order around 12750?
I'm just saying its a good possibility, with the higher trendline holding greater significance, but I'll be watching price when it gets up there to see if it yields an initial reaction. We are at the beginning of the US session here and I always stress more caution due to volatility; but in terms of probability there holds a higher chance at this mark as opposed to others in the surrounding area. Again I'll be looking for those clues we discuss, and see how price leads up to that level when the time comes.
  • #5,931
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:34am Nov 17, 2008 7:34am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm just saying its a good possibility, with the higher trendline holding greater significance, but I'll be watching price when it gets up there to see if it yields an initial reaction. We are at the beginning of the US session here and I always stress more caution due to volatility; but in terms of probability there holds a higher chance at this mark as opposed to others in the surrounding area. Again I'll be looking for those clues we discuss, and see how price leads up to that level when the time comes.
Ive been placing less emphasis on "sticky" trades here recently because, whether popular or not, I'm finding a greater number of readers trading successfully one their own as a result of the other materials I have been posting as opposed to me posting trades. I just judge it by the number of comments and emails Ive been getting and that's my ultimate goal here, and it seems to be getting achieved based on what I've been doing. Counter to this though I actullly have a couple I'm looking to post here and will probably do so a little later on.

Its the old "give a man a fish he'll eat for a day, teach a man to fish he'll eat for a lifetime", adage.....if u know what I mean. So far so good though and happy to help as you all know.

Regardless there is more learning merit, I find, in posting levels before they occur, why I keep on doing it.
  • #5,932
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:38am Nov 17, 2008 7:38am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I'm just saying its a good possibility, with the higher trendline holding greater significance, but I'll be watching price when it gets up there to see if it yields an initial reaction. We are at the beginning of the US session here and I always stress more caution due to volatility; but in terms of probability there holds a higher chance at this mark as opposed to others in the surrounding area. Again I'll be looking for those clues we discuss, and see how price leads up to that level when the time comes.
thanks for the explaination and will keep eye on that level.
  • #5,933
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:43am Nov 17, 2008 7:43am
Short GBP/USD 1.5075 area (10 pip range)

Been staring at this one for some time now, but just watch to make sure the break of 1.5000 isn't too powerful to knock it out. Should hold for something, though I would believe. Plenty of time now for order to stack up around this area.
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  • #5,934
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:44am Nov 17, 2008 7:44am
I just put out a long on usd/jpy 96.28 on some of this trend line stuff. I want to thank everyone that has commented about trend lines. I appreciate all comments. My opinion at this time is that trend lines are secondary. What I'm trying to do is force my previous methods to line up with a trendline. That's the reason why trendlines are not text book. Any how thanks guys for the help.
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  • #5,935
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:44am Nov 17, 2008 7:44am
Quoting moneybookers
thanks for the explaination and will keep eye on that level.
No prob! Thanks moneybookers.
  • #5,936
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:46am Nov 17, 2008 7:46am
This lower level just got a good knock for an initial reaction.
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  • #5,937
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:48am Nov 17, 2008 7:48am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I just put out a long on usd/jpy 96.28 on some of this trend line stuff. I want to thank everyone that has commented about trend lines. I appreciate all comments. My opinion at this time is that trend lines are secondary. What I'm trying to do is force my previous methods to line up with a trendline. That's the reason why trendlines are not text book. Any how thanks guys for the help.

I agree they are secondary, but regardless heavily monitored....why I use them so much. The bigger ones always the best.

Ambiguity is the number one concern for me and trendlines. If it exists, I'm a no go. And I only use them if they can be drawn on 1hr or greater. 15 minutes no dice. I've known traders to wipe out accounts trying to use signals from 15 min diagonal tl's (either bounces or breaks) as a sole strategy.
  • #5,938
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:50am Nov 17, 2008 7:50am
One thing I always discuss is that the levels created on the last move counter to the one you are trading hold up the best. By practicing your search this way you can easily wean out a lot of less significant price areas. Good reminder 007.[/quote]

BRV just noticed this comment and I think its very valid. So to confirm if we look at the EUR short that you mentioned at 1.27 then are you saying you would have less confidence in it due to the last time it traded that price it wasn't a clear level? I have circled the confluence at this area.

I just want to be sure as I believe that this might help me filter some of my levels.
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  • #5,939
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:01am Nov 17, 2008 8:01am
Quoting verno
One thing I always discuss is that the levels created on the last move counter to the one you are trading hold up the best. By practicing your search this way you can easily wean out a lot of less significant price areas. Good reminder 007.
Quote
BRV just noticed this comment and I think its very valid. So to confirm if we look at the EUR short that you mentioned at 1.27 then are you saying you would have less confidence in it due to the last time it traded that price it wasn't a clear level? I have circled the confluence at this area.

I just want to be sure as I believe that this might help me filter some of my levels.


Hi Verno....this was a little bit of a strange trade actually. 1.2700 lined up with the 4pm NY close on Friday (much less important than 5pm close), not to mention its just a good round number. I saw that price kept rejecting it, so I went short at it on the third attempt actually (on a smaller, 5 min timeframe) when I saw that it kept rejecting it.
Overall you're right though there's just not a lot of clean history in recent past for it, but sometimes these double zero areas dont really require it. Anytime there are double zeros on the horizon I have a good heads up when they haven been seen in a little bit.
  • #5,940
  • Nov 17, 2008 8:19am Nov 17, 2008 8:19am
Just posting this for educational purposes. Another textbook pattern in eur/jpy. Bull pivot off a gap. Plus the gap was in the middle of an important range. To bad I was not alert for this pattern.
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