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  • #5,901
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:21pm Nov 16, 2008 11:21pm
closed trade at 122.00 197 pips all up. couldnt hang on and will look at buy at 121.35 or if it goes over line 122.29 solidly. for now I need a rest.
  • #5,902
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:22pm Nov 16, 2008 11:22pm
Hi Tori,

A couple of things to keep in mind in a case like this. (1) The overall trend and the fundementals bias this to the downside; (2) price is seeming to consolidate and always remember, the market will tell us when it is ready to reverse, we will never tell the market; (3) price at this writing is at a level of resistance, the 50% retracement in confluence with the 38% retracement.

So, noone knows just what the market wil do but these are things that should enter into your decision.

Good luck.

Seattlerust
  • #5,903
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:28pm Nov 16, 2008 11:28pm
I have not yet learned much about confluence. I have seen it mentioned a few times. Would you be able to show an example please. I was watching the nikkei which was up, so yes it was counter trend but only for that reason. I would prefer selling from a higher level like 123.70. I am only just getting into fib as well and have yet to work out short term and long term fib differences as I have seen them mentioned also. Thanks in advance for the great example I hope you show me. toodles
  • #5,904
  • Nov 16, 2008 11:59pm Nov 16, 2008 11:59pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 18 KB


Okay, I will have a go as per what I think I have understood about confluence. Really dont know if it is correct so if anyone would like to correct me please do. I have put diagonal line on chart. It intersects at 120.45 which is a good level across chart. If it hits here I will take buy. My 121.35 line is intraday line although still pretty strong I believe as I had a bounce off it twice today and held my earlier cover well. Would still be watching this level for up but it would have to depend on usdjpy, where eurusd looks to be going, and one min chart.
  • #5,905
  • Nov 17, 2008 12:52am Nov 17, 2008 12:52am
Quoting Tori
Attachment

Okay, I will have a go as per what I think I have understood about confluence. Really dont know if it is correct so if anyone would like to correct me please do. I have put diagonal line on chart. It intersects at 120.45 which is a good level across chart. If it hits here I will take buy. My 121.35 line is intraday line although still pretty strong I believe as I had a bounce off it twice today and held my earlier cover well. Would still be watching this level for up but it would have to depend on usdjpy, where eurusd looks...
Tori,
120.55 is the line on my chart. You are right. It is the bucket line from 13.10. Also this line is near (30 pips difference, not much on this pair) with fibo 23.6% from high of 14.10 to low of 27.10.
I looking, according to the trend, for the price to get there to fade.
  • #5,906
  • Edited 1:09am Nov 17, 2008 12:58am | Edited 1:09am
This was published on Blomberg today
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency.

There seems to be a contradiction in the analysis, or it is just me who does not understand...
So is it 1.28$ or 1.56$??


The pound will ``trough'' at $1.28, a level not seen since 1985, and sink to a record low of 92 pence per euro in early 2009 as Britain's banks shrink foreign currency borrowings and demand for safety strengthens the U.S. dollar, JPMorgan said. U.K. banks' total foreign-currency borrowings equaled 276 percent of gross domestic product as of June 30, JPMorgan said.
.................
.................

The pound fell for a sixth day to $1.4682 as of 10:04 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4740 on Nov. 14. It traded at 85.31 pence per euro, after a record decline last week.
The median estimate of 30 analysts in a Bloomberg News survey is for the pound to trade at $1.56 and at 80 pence per euro in the first quarter. JPMorgan had previously said the pound would bottom at $1.48 and in ``the low 0.80s'' against the euro.
  • #5,907
  • Nov 17, 2008 1:48am Nov 17, 2008 1:48am
Quoting ady27
This was published on Blomberg today
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency.

There seems to be a contradiction in the analysis, or it is just me who does not understand...
So is it 1.28$ or 1.56$??


The pound will ``trough'' at $1.28, a level not seen since 1985, and sink to a record low of 92 pence per euro in early 2009 as Britain's banks shrink foreign currency borrowings and demand for safety strengthens the U.S. dollar, JPMorgan said. U.K. banks' total foreign-currency borrowings...

1.28 - JPM's estimate
1.56 - median of JPM + 29 others?

Confluence is term with a nice ring to it, for when you get to stack more than one support/resistance at the same place. They can be diagonals/horizontal lines, fibs, even MAs.

On a separate note, last weeks' price movement with so many hourly bars stacked side by side is giving me problems finding clear levels which aren't hundreds of pips from the current price.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,908
  • Nov 17, 2008 2:49am Nov 17, 2008 2:49am
Quoting ady27
There seems to be a contradiction in the analysis, (...)
Ask 4 people and you get 5 opinions
  • #5,909
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:23am Nov 17, 2008 3:23am
wow... nice results..

Quoting Tori
closed trade at 122.00 197 pips all up. couldnt hang on and will look at buy at 121.35 or if it goes over line 122.29 solidly. for now I need a rest.
  • #5,910
  • Nov 17, 2008 3:59am Nov 17, 2008 3:59am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 19 KB

I expect this is another example of confluence. Just from my observations of what I have seen lately. diagonal line crosses horizontal at 96.27, which is where I will look to buy if it reaches there. If it goes through 95.81. Of course it will all depend on what things look like if it gets that far. but the line looks good all the same
  • #5,911
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:07am Nov 17, 2008 4:07am
Hello, guys

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Does anyone see anything to note of at this time. I'm having a hard time getting todays structure clearly in my head. I'm just not seeing anything to great out there. Maybe a usd/jpy long at the lower end of the range but thats about it. I've more or less done nothing so far. I had one long position out usd/cad and closed for a quick 35 pips. But, I don't like Cad so it was a small position any how. What do you guys see?
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  • #5,912
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:29am Nov 17, 2008 4:29am
Waiting for U/J to come down, playing a bounce on the lower DTL. If this is in confluence with the small horizontal support, I'm in.
Attached Image
  • #5,913
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:50am Nov 17, 2008 4:50am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hello, guys

I hope everyone had a nice weekend. Does anyone see anything to note of at this time. I'm having a hard time getting todays structure clearly in my head. I'm just not seeing anything to great out there. Maybe a usd/jpy long at the lower end of the range but thats about it. I've more or less done nothing so far. I had one long position out usd/cad and closed for a quick 35 pips. But, I don't like Cad so it was a small position any how. What do you guys see?
I am looking at 1.1800 area on USDCHF - used as support 12/09/07 and as resistance several times on November H4. (Comments?)
  • #5,914
  • Nov 17, 2008 4:52am Nov 17, 2008 4:52am
GW I was wondering if you could tell me what the STOXX Boe chart is for and where I would find it. You quoted that as one to keep an eye on last week. thanks
  • #5,915
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:02am Nov 17, 2008 5:02am
This weekend I studied a liitle on trend lines. In the past I was stubborn thought they were a waste of time and are subjective. I have noticed from Brvs charts they are a vital part of his analysis and he leans on them at the right times. I thought I would post some trend line plays here and there. If any one has been using them for some time please try to correct me if its drawn incorrectly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,916
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:05am Nov 17, 2008 5:05am
Quoting Tori
GW I was wondering if you could tell me what the STOXX Boe chart is for and where I would find it. You quoted that as one to keep an eye on last week. thanks
I'm not sure what you mean boe. The only stoxx I follow is euro stoxx 50. If you remember the post # let me know and I will have a look. Boe is probably a typo. In think I know what you are talking about. My platform quotes the instrument as stoxx50e on the corner where the name of the instrument is displayed. When I attach charts for some reason clarity is not so good and I think thats what you are talking about
  • #5,917
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:13am Nov 17, 2008 5:13am
I always go from last low, including tail, back to previous lowest swing low. not including the candle that is in play as it may end up being lowest near candle. this will change more frequently depending on time frame. Louise Bedford has a good book called candlestick charting. I will post another chart in a min if you like
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,918
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:18am Nov 17, 2008 5:18am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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This is a good example because there was a lot of activity in middle that never came down to line. so lowest two point were it. and if you note trend line crossed at 6337 which as I have learned today would have been confluence. This is 4 hr chart. smaller time frames would of course look much different
  • #5,919
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:24am Nov 17, 2008 5:24am
Quoting Grath
I am looking at 1.1800 area on USDCHF - used as support 12/09/07 and as resistance several times on November H4. (Comments?)
Yes, I have 1830/1800 on my charts which would make the fall roughly equal to the average range of the USDCHF for the past 10 days too.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,920
  • Nov 17, 2008 5:31am Nov 17, 2008 5:31am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 18 KB


just in profit on usdjpy, hit line to pip. anyone have an idea where first hiccup will be. Unless of course it decides to suddenly turn south and I would put stop at 96.07. looking at 97.18.
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