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  • #5,721
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:20am Nov 13, 2008 7:20am
Tori,
Hi there thank-you very much for the insightful posting....if I may ask do you think AUD/USD at a good level to go long?
Again thank you so much



Quoting Tori
Attachment I would ask, if you are feeling afraid to short this trade then think what you are looking at because if you afraid then you may miss things, or see the wrong thing. I would look at all these candles under the line, and not feel confident unless it definately came under the line for definate. Perhaps there is no real trade here at all. Perhaps you are afraid because you really dont see a viable trade at all. I would suggest you consider why you think it is a good trade.
BANDA333
  • #5,722
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:24am Nov 13, 2008 7:24am
[quote=cliffedwards;2347022]

But I would also say that ones trading style plays a big part in whats "useful" and not. Yesterday while you guys were sitting back making your 100+ off single trades on the the big moves I was working my ass off with 20 trades..to net my 100+ pips.
I guess I havent progressed to the 12 Dan of a BRV black belt LoL..
I used to do up to 30 scalping trades in a day, if I was on I was on, if not, then goodnight. It is tough work. It is stressful, and in my case a rush of blood that would cause me to make costly mistakes. I have to change my style. If you find that style easy and suitable for your personality, then you have your niche and must make sure your safeguards work for your style of trading. BRVs principals work for all though because scalp or long trade, you need to be able to assess the S/R and intraday lines just the same. I never believed I would shelve scalping to trade moderately longer, no I would not go back. Those getting 100 pips off one trade are no more black belt than those who scalp. just different methods. No more from me tonight.
  • #5,723
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:31am Nov 13, 2008 7:31am
There may be some attempts at intervention on the AUSSIE that is in play here, but just observing the technicals, we should note the inverted Head & Shoulders that is present on the larger (4H and Daily) time frames. This is a reversal pattern recognized by many traders. This would signal a bullish move from these levels which would be in line with a strengthening Aussie dollar from the intervention.

Of course, we should never lose sight of the fact that the market will do what ever it wants and there is USD news coming out very soon.

Seattlerust
  • #5,724
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:31am Nov 13, 2008 7:31am
Banda 333. Thanks for asking my opinion, but I am no expert so you need to use your own eyes. So I would ask this. first, is it actually moving. not to my liking. Is it touching any line at the moment. none that I can see. If I was going long I would want to have gotten back over .6480, or come from much lower level for bounce. Which leads me to this question. Do you think it looks like a bounce, to me it looks like a wilting rose. I dont see any reason why I would be interested in this. At the moment even a short scalp looks tough. All this may change later and then the answer to those questions will tell you whether it is worth a trade. I stress this is only an opinion and other people here may have different opinion. And that leads me to my final word. You have to gain the confidence to listen to your own opinion, and you do that by knowing why you want to take the trade, and that comes back to lines and the answer to those questions.
  • #5,725
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:35am Nov 13, 2008 7:35am
[quote=Tori;2347072]
Quoting cliffedwards

But I would also say that ones trading style plays a big part in whats "useful" and not. Yesterday while you guys were sitting back making your 100+ off single trades on the the big moves I was working my ass off with 20 trades..to net my 100+ pips.
I guess I havent progressed to the 12 Dan of a BRV black belt LoL..
I used to do up to 30 scalping trades in a day, if I was on I was on, if not, then goodnight. It is tough work. It is stressful, and in my case a rush of blood that would cause me to make costly...
Be careful tori by over embracing gunning for large targets. Two years ago that method wasn't the best by far. In this market environment its working great. When the environment shifts you will need to readjust. Your true objective should be able to be competent in all market environments. This is the mark of the true market wizard. Any one can be good in one environment and blow up in the next one that comes along. So you need several skill sets just to be able to determine what environment you are in and what you should do in each environment.
  • #5,726
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:39am Nov 13, 2008 7:39am
band I hope you took that swissie trade. You analysis was good. I was waiting for the 1.1925 and it never got there. so i missed the train, oh well
  • #5,727
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:39am Nov 13, 2008 7:39am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Its a safe short you may need to take on tad more risk than your willing. Here's how cci can be valuable especially for this rangy instrument. What just happened is a 0 line reject. It may test the highs again or go a tad higher. But in the next day or today the cci cycle will hit -190 give ot take +-5. This should be a nice payout. I had mentioned this before about cycle work for exits. Its absolutely a worthy cause just can get kind of confusing.

hi,

can you elaborate more on the cci ? why is the rejection of 0 a good signal of further selling ? where did you learn about the cci ? thanks
  • #5,728
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:43am Nov 13, 2008 7:43am
Quoting Guerrillawar
band I hope you took that swissie trade. You analysis was good. I was waiting for the 1.1925 and it never got there. so i missed the train, oh well

You going to get in on USD/JPY? I'm watching that level you posted. Seems to have significance on higher time frames as well.
  • #5,729
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:47am Nov 13, 2008 7:47am
I don't know to much about the cci. i have just developed my own ideas fiddling with parameters. In simple terms if you get direction kind of right first you can use cci as an exit tool. If you watch if for two weeks on various time frames and settings you will see the market does in fact work in cycles. This will give you confidence to hold a tad longer. Or to exit and get back in for full completion of the cycle. The only words of advice in a strong trend only accept signals that line up with the trend. How you define trend here is the key and their is no right answer. However, if you are using dailies to define trend I think its to slow. But h2,h4,h8,h12 can help but none is better some work best at times and other work best at times.
  • #5,730
  • Nov 13, 2008 7:50am Nov 13, 2008 7:50am
Quoting libb
You going to get in on USD/JPY? I'm watching that level you posted. Seems to have significance on higher time frames as well.
I'm in at 95.50 gunning for 97.00
  • #5,731
  • Nov 13, 2008 8:07am Nov 13, 2008 8:07am
Hi seattlerust,
Thankyou very much for the input
Thankx

Quoting seattlerust
There may be some attempts at intervention on the AUSSIE that is in play here, but just observing the technicals, we should note the inverted Head & Shoulders that is present on the larger (4H and Daily) time frames. This is a reversal pattern recognized by many traders. This would signal a bullish move from these levels which would be in line with a strengthening Aussie dollar from the intervention.

Of course, we should never lose sight of the fact that the market will do what ever it wants and there is USD news coming out very soon.

Seattlerust...
BANDA333
  • #5,732
  • Edited 8:50am Nov 13, 2008 8:45am | Edited 8:50am
seattlerust ....really thanks for this mate.. Jeeeez got to ask myself why didnt I know this..in public domain for 12+ hours..major info system failure...but explains all...
  • #5,733
  • Nov 13, 2008 8:54am Nov 13, 2008 8:54am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I'm in at 95.50 gunning for 97.00
I gotta say Im a little skeptical about this hitting 97.00 at this point especially after this last stab.....cross pairs seems pretty stretched out for the time being and I'm not sure if you'll hit it from your entry. I know a lot of sells on in general - SPX could get smoked again today its having a helluva time getting off the ground here - unemployment claims weighing down. About the only thing supporting right now is speculation of another US rate cut....but thats just it....speculation at this point.
  • #5,734
  • Nov 13, 2008 8:58am Nov 13, 2008 8:58am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I gotta say Im a little skeptical about this hitting 97.00 at this point especially after this last stab.....cross pairs seems pretty stretched out for the time being and I'm not sure if you'll hit it from your entry. I know a lot of sells on in general - SPX could get smoked again today its having a helluva time getting off the ground here - unemployment claims weighing down.
It does look like an ugly failure after that recent test of 96.30 or so. S&P sold of hard from that minor resistance. If probably end up with a stop at b.e
  • #5,735
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:17am Nov 13, 2008 9:17am
any one take this trade. It was on my radar all day. But something seems fishy with the euro today so I have decided to pass. But all the same the pattern is there.
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  • #5,736
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:24am Nov 13, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Guerrillawar
It does look like an ugly failure after that recent test of 96.30 or so. S&P sold of hard from that minor resistance. If probably end up with a stop at b.e
What a comeback on this thing.......unbelieveable......this is why you can catch me trading London for the greater part.
  • #5,737
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:28am Nov 13, 2008 9:28am
Quoting Guerrillawar
any one take this trade. It was on my radar all day. But something seems fishy with the euro today so I have decided to pass. But all the same the pattern is there.
I think EUR/GBP is on steriods lately driving alot of this action.....volumes have been through the roof on it the past couple of days, so has been said/rumored. Lots of buy stops above this area taken out it looks like, quite efficiently. Now EUR/JPY is approaching 121.20.....keeping an eye on that one but hesitant to short in this kind of market. IFR has buy stops above on it.
  • #5,738
  • Nov 13, 2008 9:48am Nov 13, 2008 9:48am
Ah man, I had that 1.2400 level marked up and set an alert for it and even woke up for it... and then when I was waiting to watch it bounce (I set my alert at 1.2420) to confirm a fade, I fell back asleep lol. Missed out on a quick and easy 150+ pips.

Also, it had been oversold on the stochs, and slowly moving down, so it was pretty much a 'no brainer' to me. Very similar to the setup of the EURUSD trade BRV posted on the blog last week.
  • #5,739
  • Edited 10:37am Nov 13, 2008 9:51am | Edited 10:37am
My feeling is that it needs a quick retrace to validate the bull here..?

Food for thought.. in commodity currencies Cad seems more durable than Aussie/Kiwi. Might have a lot further to go . $Cad long - AUD or NZD short to could be good hedge position..
Oooops .. gotta go...my Aussie longs just got seriously underwater..

OK adding this since no post in between...with a Rant!!!

We are clearly in a vicious bear stockmarket...
There is no way ANYBODY nows what will happen.. our FX markets are being variously driven by the SP DAX WTIetc..
Another leg down is very likely..that means further $ and Yen strength... In my view totally unwarranted in fundemental terms...
A number of people have said BE CAREFUL.. learn when NOT to trade...
Me .. I think they are right..
Ive never had such volitility in my personal returns as Ive had in the last two months since Lehmans failure.. Yet Im substancially ahead..
Seriously thinking of going on holidays.. and recognising that Im ahead because of luck more than skill in this mess...

If I stay.. Im doing two things.. 1. reducing my lot size by 50% accross the board.. 2. increasing my criteria on trade consideration..
The latter is a pain in the A**. Means sitting around infront of the screens sometimes for hours between signals...
Aaaah well .. thank God for Sky Movies...LoL..
  • #5,740
  • Nov 13, 2008 10:51am Nov 13, 2008 10:51am
Eur/Usd
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