No Brainer Trades

hi GW,

is this the pattern you talked about?

Good evening to you barak,
I really don't know why it hasn't moved much.I have gotten into 2 trades with a small loss over it.But look at it now.It made a new low and looks as if it is coming back up to show resistance of this level..will it happen I don't know but I am watching it.I myself am trying to narrow my trading down to 1-2 pairs,I think this will be one of them.

hey man , what's up?

I shorted it right now , and I hope it will catch up with the other pairs , oilgold US indices got it hard today , allthough I think it will retrace tomorrow , anyway I also trying to narrow my trades into 2 pairs ,

cheers

Barak hey buddy,
I am not very sure why EU/$ didn't move that much but, I think if you check EU/GBP it has broken previous resistance and made a new high. What I noted was when EU/GBP pair make significant move in favor of EU. EU is stronger.

Maybe I am wrong, this is my dumb explanation .....

Hi guys,

I thought I'd contribute here ...

USDCAD going for a bounce at around 1.2415
Previous S&R at around 1.2430.

Looks like it has room to drop if it goes, as it beat a pretty fast path up to the resistance with not much to hold it back on the way down. That's how I'm seeing it anyhow, feel free to add any comments!

hi dude,

thank you for replying ,

I'm not sure what's going with this pair , it doesn't obey anything in the last couple of days , in terms of r&s and corellation with indices,oil & gold , maybe there is goverment intervension , or some big buyers decided that it hit the bottom ?! , anyway - the only pair I saw today that moved in perfect correlation with oil was the usdcad - it even has the perfect Elliot's patern ,

let's hope for some good news...

Hi,

It doesn't really get much better than this. The past few months have been for sure the best of times for most traders, with a trend that wont quit and the right fundamentals to boot.

As with all things change is inevitable, sometimes out of the blue (wtf were the fed thinking), or the whole thing just runs out of steam 'oil'. It's the turning points that worry me. After having it so good for so long it's easy to become over confident with runs of success. For me now after such a year of market turmoil which Ibet most traders here on this forum have never experienced, the key for the folowing few months for me will be knowing when not to trade.

This is going to be the key to holding onto what Ive gained as we head towards a new year and the hope that I have the dicipline to stay out of the crossfire when the tide turns.

Question : Is a 10 pip spread for this pair reasonable ?

Hi Guys. I stayed out yesterday and just watched as I get the attitude right. Have been spending mjy time re reading Trading In The Zone. I would like to give one comment and hope not to sound like a kill joy. I have been reading over all the posts and so many asking, I dont know why it is behaving this way, Do you know where it will go, Can you explain this behavior, Seeing this written over and over only confirms the clear answer. No, we can never know why, where, or when. I saw Siam say, that he will be guaging when best not to trade. That is the discipline I am endeavoring to learn as well. So thanks for that Siam. Hope everyone does well tonight. Also digesting BRV risk reward ratios to add to my disciplined trading skills which are slowly developing. toodles

May as well stick my neck out and post the only trade I am looking at presently. usdcad in at 1.2365. maybe a little low. stop 1.2410. my first target 1.2145. I think there is some intraday support around 1.2276 so it might stop, When I get that far stop will be at BE anyway should it bounce. If it goes through I will put stop above 1.2276 and wait.Will take profit at 1.2145 if slow, if strong and goes through, will shift stop to just above here and would let it go and out at 1.2007 If it bounces on 1.2145 my stop will have given me roughly 100 pips, but if it goes through my stop will be at 1.2175 and I will have 220 so happy anyway. I would take the risk of letting it continue under 1.2145 because I cant lose anyway. Of course I dont know anything about where it will go, but I am endeavoring to play my edge, which BRV is teaching, protect myself, and still enjoy the ride. This is how I will assess all my trades, as before I was a scalper which leads to an adrenalin rush, no discipline, ect.

Couple of levels I'll be watching today.

AUDUSD: 0.6475, 0.6545, 0.6640
EURUSD: 1.2580, 1.2625, 1.2670, 1.2790
EURJPY: 121.40, 123.80
USDCAD: 1.2150, 1.2100, 1.1990

Of these I'm most comfortable with AUDUSD and EURUSD.

Hi Tori,

I thought you might like to hear a couple of Mark "Trading in the Zone" Douglas lectures.

http://club.ino.com/trading/2008/07/...aders-mindset/

http://club.ino.com/trading/2008/10/...sonal-trading/

thanks for that, right onto it now. no time like the present.

Hi BRV people,

Read today's Blomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html

Before making any assumptions regarding directions, information at this point is valuable.

Tori my friend,
you said it yourself in a prior post "No, we can never know why, where, or when." where the market is heading. This is discipline . Do not put your "neck on the line" for any trade, as wishes do not always comes true.

Although not my favorite pair,
look how it was stopped exactly on the 61.8% fibo weekly.
As before, up or down nobody knows now as governments are getting into the market (Japan, Australia...).

Poor choice of words. What I was meaning is that I open myself up to comments about why would I choose that trade, those lines, ect quite willingly. It is my way of learning to trust myself and not hide behind a trade after it has happened. Information is important to decide on direction, but I have seen so many times how the currency moves counter to the info, announcement ect, and so I will assess the trade on how it looks, and my feeling at the time, and if I put in the right targets, stops, I have done all I can do, and learn to take it on the chin if the trade goes against me. I will not be wrong because I will have protected myself, but determining my trade on the information that comes out is just as risky as using the lines alone. I try to do both, but am sceptical of the info as of late. Thin markets means easy manipulation.

Tori, good for you it looks like you got your mind in the right place. However, be vigilant to protect your new trading beliefs because once one starts experiencing heat on well thought out positions they tend to revert back to non optimal mental patterns.

Also be well aware what Siam has said. This environment is basically a traders paradise for brvs methods. The methods worked in the past as well. However, it required much much more patience and days with no trades. And the patterns were worth much less pips.

These wide ranges will come to end probably end of first quarter 2009 (just a guess) I think the times of 50 pips daily atr are thing of the past for ever but these ultra wide ranges will be a thing of the past as well. I wouldn't be concerned about having to revert to a 50 pips atr though either. That was caused by big funds playing non-directional positions in the days with unlimited liquidity. And the famous two cash cows for the street in that liquidity party. Selling vols and selling options for time decay premiums. Those two trades have fallen by the wayside (not totally) due to the constant on slaught of black swan events happening one after another.

Any how good luck with your mental development. And honestly don't get to caught up in trader psychology or you may just create a problem that doesn't even exist. The best advice is study BRVS last few posts on trade management. And build a system with positive expectancy and the mental issues will fix by themselves. In the simplest of words successful trading is this. Build a system with a 55% accuracy rate, with a frequency of three trades a day, that has a r/r multiple of 2/1. If you do that, and don't get in the systems way you will be awash in cash. By the way I'm not sure how BRV is getting 3/1 with adequate frequency of trades fired off. That is a very difficult task to perform. One way is to be ultra selective, but that has the cost of low frequency. The other way is real skillful stop-loss ideas. Thats probably how BRV does it. My research show that more money or pips can be created by a 2.0 or even 1.5 R/R multiple due to frequency. If you go down the ultra selective route and gun for the 3/1 it does haves its drawbacks. The ultimate answer is to find a high frequency with a 3/1. If you can do that tell me I want to know how.

By the way did any one nail these trades I mised them both.

Good posts GW...just curious, do you trade for a living?

I do but with help from my wife. And it took me nearly three years of trading a mini account to get here.