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Oil Trades and outlook

  • #21
  • Nov 10, 2008 12:34am Nov 10, 2008 12:34am
Probably the most significant feature of Friday’s activity was t he fact that we didn’t make a new low at the end of the week. The ‘Inside Day’ had half the range of the previous day but failed to challenge the lows giving the market the opportunity for a bounce. The 9 day moving average is starting to flaten out and a st rong day today would take it above the 14 day which would be a bullish signal for the short term.
The medium term and short term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Suppor t : $56.81 (low of 07/11/08) Resis t ance: $63.96 (low of 22/10/08)
Suppor t : $56.44 (low of 06/11/08) Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)
Suppor t : $55.88 (high of 25/01/07) Resis t ance: $61.13 (low of 05/10/08)


Summary:

Last Friday we saw a weakening US dollar and a rebound in the stock markets which in turn helped a short rally in the crude price fuelled also by the usual short covering before the week-end. The rally seems to have further to go in the trading session early this morning on the back of China ’s announcement of stimulus package worth over $500 billion. But accepting the fact that these occasional price corrections are possible providing fresh selling opportunities, as long as the fundamentals don’ t change we feel t hat t he big picture is still dominated by a bearish sentimen t .
  • #22
  • Nov 10, 2008 2:20am Nov 10, 2008 2:20am
Thanks for the great update
Just my 2 cents worth
  • #23
  • Nov 10, 2008 2:33pm Nov 10, 2008 2:33pm
what a day to trade today

there was no doubt some serious casualties...
  • #24
  • Nov 12, 2008 3:33am Nov 12, 2008 3:33am
Crude made new lows in yeserdays trading session and very important it setled lower t hus giving us the bearish signal. So after a period of consolidation when the 9 and 14 day moving averages were about to cross the new lows of the recet days indicate the downward trend is still in place. If we break below yesterdays low we are looking back to January 2007 for the next suppot .
The medium term and short term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Suppor t : $54.92 (yes t erday low) Resis t ance: $59.02 (27/10/08)
Suppor t : $53.56 (low of 29/01/07) Resis t ance: $58.59 (yes t erday’s high)
Suppor t : $51.65 (low of 11/01/07) Resis t ance: $56.44 (low of 06/11/08)


Summary:


The ‘Usual Suspects’ of the recent months, he US dollar and the stock markt have been again t e main drivers behind the plunge in crude oil to lows last seen in March 2007. Adding to that was the speculation that the International Energy Agency will cut its 2009 forecast for oil demand as world economic growth is slowing. Repot s from China about less than expected oil imports for last months didn’ t help either given that he markts were hopeful that the fast-growing Chinese economy would partially offset declines in the US.
  • #25
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:05pm Nov 12, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting Albertini
OIL WEEKLY SINCE 1983
Thanks a million!!
  • #26
  • Nov 13, 2008 1:06am Nov 13, 2008 1:06am
It was no surprise to see a large fall yesterday as the market dropped out of the consolidation period of the previous two weeks where it tried, and failed, to stage a recovery. A close today below the opening level would leave us with the bearish Japanese Candle formation ‘Three Black Crows’. This formation has proved true to its prophecy on this formidable downward trend.
The medium term and short term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Suppor t : $51.65 (low of 11/01/07) Resis t ance: $57.92 (9 day moving average)
Suppor t : $51.50 (low of 19/01/07) Resis t ance: $56.44 (low of 06/11/08)
Suppor t : $50.75 (low of 17/01/07) Resis t ance: $55.92 (yes t erday’s high)


Summary:

Although the technical picture looked very weak early in the day yesterday, the market found support from the Dollars weakness against the Euro. But as we have mentioned, the clever money is looking to sell in to rallies and the Dollars strength against other currencies, particularly the Yen, put downward pressure on prices. The IEA monthly report was more bad news for the bulls as it showed a further decline in global demand. With many traders predicting at test of the $55-$50 range in WTI there was very little to stop the fall. Maybe the bulls can find some joy in the release of the weekly DOE stats due out later today due to the Veterans Day holiday in the US on Monday.

Courtesy of ODL London
  • #27
  • Nov 17, 2008 7:35am Nov 17, 2008 7:35am
Technical Report:

While Thursday’s ‘Doji’ gave a boost to prices on Friday, they ran out of steam on the downtrend line suggesting that the trend is very much in tact and rallies will continue to be sold at relevant levels. The moving averages are all bearish and the real big test for this market would be Thursday’s low of $50.60.
The short and medium term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Support: $51.99 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $58.85 (14 day moving average)
Support: $51.68 (low of 12/11/08) Resistance: $56.56 (Friday’s high)
Support: $50.60 (low of 13/11/08) Resistance: $55.88 (9 day moving average)


Summary:

Although the market technically was set for a bounce on Friday, prices were once again under pressure on the back of weaker stock markets and a stronger dollar. The fact that the days high were just short of the medium term downtrend line suggests that traders are still looking to sell any strength in this market. More of a base formed on the charts or a major fundamental news item is required for the market to rally back to the $60 level.

Coutesy of ODL London
  • #28
  • Nov 19, 2008 12:35am Nov 19, 2008 12:35am
Technical Report:

We saw one of the smallest daily ranges for a while yesterday, under $2. With the 9 day moving average and the downtrend line joining forces to be resistance at the same level throughout this week a lid has been placed on prices suggesting a test of the lowest level for two years is on the cards ($50.60). There are still no indications from the charts that the downtrend from the summer has any intention of reversing.
The short and medium term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Support: $51.25 (Yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.99 (9 day moving average)
Support: $50.60 (low of 13/11/08) Resistance: $53.20 (downtrend line)
Support: $50.00 (Psychological level) Resistance: $53.06 (yesterday’s high)


Summary:

With the lack of fresh fundamental news to instigate a rally, prices slid back into the bearish trend with fresh lows posted on the WTI contract. There is a lot of talk of WTI reaching $50 and while any attempt of a rally in this market is quickly snuffed out, prices haven’t raced to make this psychological number either. We saw a small daily range yesterday but maybe we can get some fireworks today from the DOE stats which are expected to show modest build throughout.
  • #29
  • Nov 19, 2008 2:27am Nov 19, 2008 2:27am
hi musicman & rest of the gang,

Its nice to read oil updates here. I remember when I was looking at my oil charts few weeks back when it still was at 75$. Back then I was thinking oil should sooner or later form a bottom and go back up. But the charts looked so bearish. And guess what, as you already know price dropped.
Now its just a bit above 50$ and I'm looking at my charts again, asking myself if it would probably rise? Or to rephrase my question, WHEN it would rise?

If i would want to pick a bottom, what price level would you think of?
My charts look like the Matrix
  • #30
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:44am Nov 19, 2008 3:44am
Quoting GCash
hi musicman & rest of the gang,

Its nice to read oil updates here. I remember when I was looking at my oil charts few weeks back when it still was at 75$. Back then I was thinking oil should sooner or later form a bottom and go back up. But the charts looked so bearish. And guess what, as you already know price dropped.
Now its just a bit above 50$ and I'm looking at my charts again, asking myself if it would probably rise? Or to rephrase my question, WHEN it would rise?

If i would want to pick a bottom, what price level would you think of?...

the low...

we'll all know a week later...

picking a bottom here is dangerous.. i think its going to be one of those when it capitulates.... n finishes higher on the day!!!!!
  • #31
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:59am Nov 19, 2008 7:59am
yes, the low...

Every time I see a new low I think it might be THE low, and if not I still could try to average my position down, isn't it?



Quoting jaysolo
the low...

we'll all know a week later...

picking a bottom here is dangerous.. i think its going to be one of those when it capitulates.... n finishes higher on the day!!!!!
My charts look like the Matrix
  • #32
  • Nov 19, 2008 1:20pm Nov 19, 2008 1:20pm
We are dithering around the $50 level and its a very strong psychological support point. If we break this I can certainly see a relativley quick fall to the next level of $40pb. A lot also depends on just how much the OPEC countries decide to cut production and how bad a winter we are likely to have in the Northern Hemisphere.

We are seeing falling demand from India and China which is helping to push us lower. All you can do is trade the charts. There is a strong resistance with the 9 and 14 day ma's so close together so it would take a lot to break through to the upside.

Personally I would never try to pick a bottom, or top for that matter in anything - just trade what you see. All rallies are being continually sold into and the DOW is not helping sentiment either.

I am selling on rallies for the time being - seems so obvious, its the old rule, keep your losses tightly controlled and let the profits run.
  • #33
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:32pm Nov 19, 2008 4:32pm
Interesting view

http://www.ft.com/cms/bfba2c48-5588-...9&fromSearch=n
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
  • #34
  • Nov 20, 2008 1:49am Nov 20, 2008 1:49am
Technical Report:

We have reached the point on the chart where something has got to give. The market bounced off the important $50.60 low yesterday forming a double bottom but once again failed to rally above the downtrend line. The weight of bearish technical analysis is suggestion that a breach of the $50.60 level is more likely and we would suspect a rapid fall if that were to happen.
The short and medium term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.



Support: $50.61 (Yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.19 (9 day moving average)
Support: $50.60 (low of 13/11/08) Resistance: $52.95 (Yesterday’s high)
Support: $50.00 (Psychological level) Resistance: $51.68 (downtrend line)


Summary:

Any strength the market finds from holding technical strong points or bullish fundamental news i.e. the cold weather in the Eastern half of US, trouble in Nigeria , is being nullified by the continuing weakness in the worlds stock markets and the strength of the Dollar against the Euro. The release of the weekly DOE stats did little to inject confidence in a market rally with a build in Crude stocks of 1.6m not altogether bearish in itself but the fact that it was a build for the eight week in a row combined with ever falling demand which is causing concern to the bulls.
  • #35
  • Nov 20, 2008 2:19am Nov 20, 2008 2:19am
musicman,

pm me dude.. i tried to pm you but its saying i cant!

pm me your email add, got a few questions..
  • #36
  • Nov 20, 2008 12:01pm Nov 20, 2008 12:01pm
i found it funny when oil reached $49 today. MAny a man was saying $200 before christmas
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #37
  • Nov 20, 2008 4:19pm Nov 20, 2008 4:19pm
Quoting Mr demark
i found it funny when oil reached $49 today. MAny a man was saying $200 before christmas
I agree.. oil at $200 and somebody predicted also eurusd at 2 and gold at 1000$
  • #38
  • Nov 20, 2008 4:35pm Nov 20, 2008 4:35pm
well... it you look it with the eyes semiclosed... this 100$ drop it's really like a gap... lol.. should the gap be closed? hehe..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:14am Nov 21, 2008 4:14am
Technical Report:

As we said yesterday, something had to give, and it was no surprise to see it was the $50.60 support level considering the bearishness of the current chart. This downtrend has provided us with small pockets of consolidation on the way down but no real corrective rally. This suggests the this down move is very powerful with many traders looking to sell into any bounce.
The short, medium and long term trends are all bearish.



Support: $47.25 (High of 27/01/05) Resistance: $51.59 (9 day moving average)
Support: $46.43 (high of 30/11/04) Resistance: $50.60 (low of 13/11/08)
Support: $44.50 (high of 20/08/04) Resistance: $50.82 (downtrend line)


Summary:

Usually we say on a Friday that we expect book squaring before the weekend to affect prices, but we feel that will not be the case today. This market is so closely related to the stock markets at present that any other factor which would normally move the market is being largely ignored. As the recession continues the outlook for Oil demand is very bleak especially with the dismal condition of the US automobile industry. Technically we are looking back to the end of 04/early 05 for support with the bulls really clinging to the oversold condition of the market for hope.

Courtesy ODL London
  • #40
  • Nov 21, 2008 6:43am Nov 21, 2008 6:43am
Quoting emda
well... it you look it with the eyes semiclosed... this 100$ drop it's really like a gap... lol.. should the gap be closed? hehe..
That...that is simply scary looking. Well it's just proof of point of why it's great to be a trader: ride that sucker into the ground!
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
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