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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,781
  • Nov 11, 2008 4:26am Nov 11, 2008 4:26am
Quoting Palmer
Just an observation...

I posted earlier that the Swissie looked like it was ready for a move up and it put in a move. I did not take this trade, I was away from my 'desk'. The 1hr gave a +DM/-DM cross up with a strong bull candle. I have noticed in the past that when the 4hr rhythm is strong this is usually a reliable entry method. But, you can see that the 1hr candle has a range of about 60 pips and the close was at the high of the candle. I really don't like buying at the top of anything, even the close of a candle. This is where entering on...
Hey Palmer. I was watching this too, but never took it on due to that large candle on the 1H. Would you have taken it on 2 candles later though with the movement away from the 21ema. SL back to 89sma on 1H was about 45-50pips. The target for me would have been about 50pips on 1 unit as that lets a wave 5 complete. Then trail the second fairly tight 3BL or whatever you plan is. I was not arround but that would have been a good setup. Mixed day yesterday for me. I had direction spot on for Cable and EU. Tried to take it on early on the upper TL and got stopped out by 10pips. It then moved about 200+ in the direction I said it would go. I got back in on cable to make a total of 4 pips over all and EU about 48pips!!! Should have been so much more. Need to do some back testing for stop placement I think as thats what has been getting me this last couple of weeks.

Going to try and add the 4H data to my Dynamic Trader software to see it it helps to confirm the system. It may be useful say if the 4H data is Bearish with a MACD TC you could then wait for the next 1H Bearish Reversal to enter.
Just a theory but might be rather usefull.
  • #17,782
  • Nov 11, 2008 6:57am Nov 11, 2008 6:57am
Neil...If you mean two hours later (at the green vertical line), honestly I don't know. Once the DM cross occurs at the close of that candle, that's the signal: either get in there or try a limit order on the next 1hr candle. Two hours later the 1hr looked to get moving up but the candle range was the same, very large with a wide stop needed if you got in at the close of that candle. Again, the limit order could have been used to reduce the stop and get a better fill but this is all after the fact. These these large candle ranges tell me that the current volatility is high, not sure why right now though. But again, getting in two hours later I don't know. That would have to be part of the trading plan which I really haven't put together yet if the entry is not there on the DM close but two or three bars later...

Things might be setting up again for another entry by the way,,,
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  • #17,783
  • Nov 11, 2008 7:59am Nov 11, 2008 7:59am
DOWN - price is under SMA89 and bounced at least once down from EMA21 or SMA89; price is under EMA21;SELL
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  • #17,784
  • Nov 11, 2008 8:41am Nov 11, 2008 8:41am
Also watching EURUSD, but people - don't forget about

All Day USD http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...ct_holiday.gif Bank Holiday
May be the "thin" market
  • #17,785
  • Nov 11, 2008 8:46am Nov 11, 2008 8:46am
OK...took the entry. I don't trade the swissie very often but I've been watching this pair for a few days.

Went in with 1.0 lots at the 1hr close +DM/-DM cross and had an open buy limit order for .5 lots that missed getting filled by 5 pips, canceled that order. Just exited one .50 for 25 pips and will monitor the second .50 lot...up about 30 on that right now...
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  • #17,786
  • Nov 11, 2008 9:25am Nov 11, 2008 9:25am
Stop moved up to 1815, a few pips below this 1hr candle. 42 pips locked on the remaining 0.5 lot. The buy limit order that did not get filled are the orders that I like to see run for about 70 or 80 pips. This order is moving up well and may try for a few more...
  • #17,787
  • Nov 11, 2008 9:38am Nov 11, 2008 9:38am
Moved stop up to 1830. This will put in about 80 pips for total for the two lots.

Gotta run..
  • #17,788
  • Edited 10:19am Nov 11, 2008 9:59am | Edited 10:19am
Breakout of triangle giving a TC signal. Stoploss can be made smaller just above the breakout level

Entry 1.2635
Stoploss split(30 and 60) average 45
TP at 161% Fib at 1.2500. I will watch 1.2600 closely

Edit 1
1.2600 reached.

Edit 2
Went below 1.2580. Will give it chance to go to profit level.

Edit 3
Reached the previous low of 1.2530. Close 50% and set remainder at 1.2550

Edit 4
Remainder closed out at 1.2550

Gain (105+85)/2= 95pips
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  • #17,789
  • Edited 10:29am Nov 11, 2008 10:15am | Edited 10:29am
Nice trade, Phillip!

I'm sitting aside because of a big SL (my trendline is a bit higher). Phillip, how do you distinguish, when it's possible to trade breakout and when one should wait for a retest of the broken level? Guess strength of the move is the answer... but would be thankfull if you answer.
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  • #17,790
  • Nov 11, 2008 10:32am Nov 11, 2008 10:32am
Quoting Yorik
Nice trade, Phillip!

I'm sitting aside because of a big SL (my trendline is a bit higher). Phillip, how do you distinguish, when it's possible to trade breakout and when one should wait for a retest of the broken level? Guess strength of the move is the answer... but would be thankfull if you answer.
The signal TC candle was the breakout candle and the fact that it was a TC helped me to take the trade. If there were no MACD confirmation I would have waited for a pullback.
  • #17,791
  • Nov 11, 2008 12:38pm Nov 11, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The signal TC candle was the breakout candle and the fact that it was a TC helped me to take the trade. If there were no MACD confirmation I would have waited for a pullback.
Hello Phillip,
With this breakout happening on Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, where do u think the next stop will be? We might be seeing new lows on this two pairs and how can we profit from it? Do we hang on to our Sell trades?

by the way: I love your bubble fable.
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  • #17,792
  • Nov 11, 2008 12:49pm Nov 11, 2008 12:49pm
Laja...This is the daily. If we have a close below the tail of that last bull candle, I've got the 2300 area as the next downside target....
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  • #17,793
  • Nov 11, 2008 2:07pm Nov 11, 2008 2:07pm
Hello Phillip,

Once again I want to thank you for sharing your thoughts and your ideas, there should truely be more individuals out there like yourself. I have a question regarding your recent Eur/Usd trade, I understand all your entries and exits but I had a question about your entry, on my chart on metatrader, the close of the candle where you have your entry is priced at 1.2539, how did you get an entry of 1.2635 how could that be possible, is it the different time zones or do I have different setup. Please elaborate.

thank you
Keeping Life Simple
  • #17,794
  • Nov 12, 2008 12:55am Nov 12, 2008 12:55am
Quoting Phillip Nel
The signal TC candle was the breakout candle and the fact that it was a TC helped me to take the trade. If there were no MACD confirmation I would have waited for a pullback.
Thank you for the answer!

Is it a strong rule or does it heavily depend on other signs? For example, yesterday on GBPUSD there was a similar TC breaking support. If there were no setup on EURUSD - would you have taken this TC on GU in general, if yes, would you have entered splitting SL into 2 parts as you did on EU?
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  • #17,795
  • Nov 12, 2008 11:54am Nov 12, 2008 11:54am
A little off topic to take the monotony of trading, i found this somewhere.

If anyone have difficulty understanding the current world financial situation, the following should help....

Once upon a time in a village in India(no offense), a man announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10. The villagers seeing there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them.

The man bought thousands at $10, but, as the supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their efforts. The man further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again.

Soon the supply diminished even further and people started going back to their farms. The offer rate increased to $25 and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now act as buyer, on his behalf.

In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers: 'Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when he returns from the city, you can sell them back to him for $50.'

The villagers squeezed together their savings and bought all the monkeys.
Then they never saw the man or his assistant again, only monkeys everywhere!

Welcome to WALL STREET!!
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #17,796
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:16pm Nov 12, 2008 1:16pm
Nice story. And again, as in the story posted by Phillip above, everyone participates in trading and is happy, but in the end the luckiest (in the 1st story) or the smartest (in the latter) take the profit It might be life...
  • #17,797
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:45pm Nov 12, 2008 1:45pm
Swissie might be setting up for a long again with the 1hr DM cross....
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  • #17,798
  • Nov 12, 2008 2:18pm Nov 12, 2008 2:18pm
Did anyone take the TC trades this morning on the EURUSD or the GBPUSD?

I took the EURUSD, but I got out after only +15 pips. I didn't like the candle set-up and then I didn't like the 1.2500 number sitting right in the middle of my target profit.

I passed on the GBPUSD due to previous support (Oct. 24th and Oct. 27th). This would have worked out as the better trade. I should have played the break of the support by about 10 to 15 pips.
  • #17,799
  • Nov 12, 2008 2:42pm Nov 12, 2008 2:42pm
I got stopped out on this trade for -45pips. I split my stoploss into 30 and 60pips. TC off the 8ema.

This is part of the game.
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  • #17,800
  • Nov 12, 2008 2:47pm Nov 12, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting Yorik
Thank you for the answer!

Is it a strong rule or does it heavily depend on other signs? For example, yesterday on GBPUSD there was a similar TC breaking support. If there were no setup on EURUSD - would you have taken this TC on GU in general, if yes, would you have entered splitting SL into 2 parts as you did on EU?
I would have taken it if the EurUsd did not give a signal. I would have been stopped out.
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