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  • #5,621
  • Nov 12, 2008 4:46am Nov 12, 2008 4:46am
Quoting triphop
ADY, I've got my eye on the same area on GBPUSD too (looking at 1.5259-1.5274) for a bounce, but watch out for King talking in 40 mins time in case he starts talking about slashing interest rates again. Failing that, there's 1.5170 from back in 2002 on the daily chart and 1.5000 for a major psych level and cancelling of my holiday to new york because it'll be too expensive.

If it climbs instead, I'll be looking at taking shorts and holding on to them (1.5600 definitely, 1.5535 possibly)
Spiked just now as of the talking in London.
Hope you will travel... in any case
  • #5,622
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:03am Nov 12, 2008 6:03am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Hello, JL

I'm not sure why usd/chf is moving the way it is. Maybe Brv can answer that because its important. Its my theory that usd/chf is moving erratically because eur/chf at this time is trending really well.

This was not one of my best trades or trade management plans. But I escaped with a small profit this morning at 1.1825 minor support. And just put it back on at 1.1863. First thing, I reduced position size because it was a longer term play conceptually. I had a wide stop 8 hour ATR (20 period). I put the trade on around 1.1850 yesterday...
Good morning,
Thanks for the reply.I jumped in this trade yesterday 1.1876.It sat pretty still for a couple hours,which let my mind race wondering if I made a mistake.It jumped to 1.1894 then fell to 1.1856.I knew I was fading against a trend,and price wasn't so eager to get away from the resistance so I got out at 1.1859.

I really need to reread BRV's last blog post.I am very guilty of a lot of these things.I see a trade and just want to be in it.I have mentioned this a few times in the past about just trading 1-2 pairs to get a feel for there PA movement and be able to just get a better grip on what is going on out there.Bad habits die hard!You ask how I handle my stops on overnight trades.I basically treat them like my other trades.I find a sensible spot where I think if price reaches this area my trade is wrong therefore stopping it out.I know that is awfully vague,but that is all I have right now,as I am still learning.But good trading to you GW,and everyone else,let's make some pippage!
  • #5,623
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:17am Nov 12, 2008 6:17am
Brv,

Just read your blog for the first time in a while. Excellent series of posts. By the way how are you systematically defining the trend? As you said different circumstances call for different exits. Also what time frames are you basing 'reversal' trades from. Are these four hour, eight hour, or even larger daily?
  • #5,624
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:17am Nov 12, 2008 6:17am
Quoting jlmac27
Good morning,
Thanks for the reply.I jumped in this trade yesterday 1.1876.It sat pretty still for a coupl hours,which let my mind race wondering if I made a mistake.It jumped to 1.894 then fell to 1.1856.I knew I was fading against a trend,and price wasn't so eager to get away from the resistance so I got out at 1.1859.

I really need to reread BRV's last blog post.I am very guilty of a lot of these things.I see a trade and just want to be in it.I have mentioned this a few times in the past about just trading 1-2 pairs to get e feel for there PA movement and be able to just get a better grip on what is going on out there.Bad habits die hard!You ask how I handle my stops on overnight trades.I...

CHF trade seems to be holding orders up there at the highs pretty well. It nailed that monthly fib level and what has me thinking possible continuation of a short is a clean bounce on eur and GBP showing signs of reversal here as well. I'm in a long EUR trade right now so for the sake of all I'm hoping it holds!
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  • #5,625
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:20am Nov 12, 2008 6:20am
That candle pattern I mentioned earlier is going really well. I'm going to sit tight for 1.2670
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  • #5,626
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:20am Nov 12, 2008 6:20am
We were talking about those familiar patters we see happen over and over again with this strategy - heres one GW posted a trade of the other day that I'm long on right now - happens a lot.
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  • #5,627
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:29am Nov 12, 2008 6:29am
Brv,
Thats a beauty, you nailed that thing right to the pip,good for you. That pattern didn't even register in my head. Thanks for showing that. I've been long from that candle pattern around 1.2525 since 9 gmt
  • #5,628
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:35am Nov 12, 2008 6:35am
and here it is breathing at the bottom of the bucket....(15 min chart)
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  • #5,629
  • Nov 12, 2008 6:35am Nov 12, 2008 6:35am
Hi Folks
How are you all? Thank-you very much BRV for the latest additions to informative, insightful postings. Can any of you comment is it prudent to short EU/GBP .8230 level but, it has broken previous resistance ,insight in this regard will be highly appreciated............Thank you very much. You guys are the best I learn a lot from you all. There is a saying" more you learn you get to know ,how much you don't know"

Thank you
BANDA333
  • #5,630
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:03am Nov 12, 2008 7:03am
Quoting BANDA
Hi Folks
How are you all? Thank-you very much BRV for the latest additions to informative, insightful postings. Can any of you comment is it prudent to short EU/GBP .8230 level but, it has broken previous resistance ,insight in this regard will be highly appreciated............Thank you very much. You guys are the best I learn a lot from you all. There is a saying" more you learn you get to know ,how much you don't know"

Thank you
Banda, I personally would never take a trade on a fib line alone. There would have to be some other support or resistance or maybe another fib line to give me enough conviction to take the trade.

That said I would say I am not a very good trader and still learning.
  • #5,631
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:09am Nov 12, 2008 7:09am
Talk about a negative update. I'm still viewing this as a buying opp. based on equities. I just scooped up some eur/chf on these lows as well. God have mercy that it fall a long way if the s&p doesn't bounce.
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  • #5,632
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:12am Nov 12, 2008 7:12am
Verno,
Thank you very much for the insight. I think I should do the same to anticipate confluence of S&R and fib levels.I don't do that. That maybe the reason I loose 90% time. I am on the verge of loosing all. Sad I couldn't factor these things in to decision making.
Thank-you again for your kind helpful insight.

quote=verno;2343759]Banda, I personally would never take a trade on a fib line alone. There would have to be some other support or resistance or maybe another fib line to give me enough conviction to take the trade.

That said I would say I am not a very good trader and still learning.[/quote]
BANDA333
  • #5,633
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:23am Nov 12, 2008 7:23am
Banda, the only additional advice I can give is to trade as small as possible for your last 10%. It might also be worth trading a dummy account for a while to ensure you get consistent successful trades. That way when you come back to 'live' trading you know it works.

Best of luck
  • #5,634
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:31am Nov 12, 2008 7:31am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Talk about a negative update. I'm still viewing this as a buying opp. based on equities. I just scooped up some eur/chf on these lows as well. God have mercy that it fall a long way if the s&p doesn't bounce.
Yeah I'm watching 882.00 area on ES very closely. If we get another down day today though I think we're looking at good buying opportunities tomorrow possibly.
  • #5,635
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:34am Nov 12, 2008 7:34am
Verno
Thank-you....... I trade demo also. Want to find a good trade for the live one waiting till NY open ......hope there will be a opportunity.

Thank-you

Quoting verno
Banda, the only additional advice I can give is to trade as small as possible for your last 10%. It might also be worth trading a dummy account for a while to ensure you get consistent successful trades. That way when you come back to 'live' trading you know it works.

Best of luck
BANDA333
  • #5,636
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:43am Nov 12, 2008 7:43am
Brv's eur/usd level held really well. Its a level well worth watching. However, everything hinges on the s&p
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  • #5,637
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:50am Nov 12, 2008 7:50am
Quoting Guerrillawar
Brv's eur/usd level held really well. Its a level well worth watching. However, everything hinges on the s&p
If you go on bloomberg its just one horrifying piece of news after another....any jumps in the Index today I think could be fluke more than anything. ES is hitting support right now again , theres a bunch of it in this vicinity, so we'll see if it holds. Only 2 consecutive downcloses in it so far....I usually look for 3 and then a reversal of some sort.....its proved to be a pretty easy yet reliable measure for me over time (based on a DeMark theory).
  • #5,638
  • Nov 12, 2008 7:57am Nov 12, 2008 7:57am
Great thread by the way, my personal favorite,

This eurusd support you pointed out, i know its bounced off this before a few times going back to october but its also broken through a few times aswell, what made you believe that this time it would hold?

I closed 38 pips profit, so thanks and keep them coming!
  • #5,639
  • Nov 12, 2008 8:04am Nov 12, 2008 8:04am
cable testing low
  • #5,640
  • Nov 12, 2008 8:21am Nov 12, 2008 8:21am
Quoting cliffedwards
cable testing low
yeah at 1.5165 - low from way back on daily/weekly/monthly
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