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  • #5,601
  • Nov 11, 2008 9:40am Nov 11, 2008 9:40am
I exited my trade at 1.2540 for 125 pips, as it's quite clearly in consolidation right now.

Also, nice post on the blog BRV. Very insightful and encompassing considering it's just a few pages.

If you ever go broke trading, perhaps you could become one of those failed traders who make all their money writing books talking about trading.. just kidding!
  • #5,602
  • Nov 11, 2008 9:44am Nov 11, 2008 9:44am
Quoting smittens4212
I exited my trade at 1.2540 for 125 pips, as it's quite clearly in consolidation right now.

Also, nice post on the blog BRV. Very insightful and encompassing considering it's just a few pages.

If you ever go broke trading, perhaps you could become one of those failed traders who make all their money writing books talking about trading.. just kidding!

hahahaha.....yeah pleeeeeeeeeeeaaaaase be kidding on that!

and to all the 'thank you's: you're welcome! .....its good for me, too....nothing better than reinforcing this stuff into my own brain and coming up with better strategies as a result
  • #5,603
  • Nov 11, 2008 10:27am Nov 11, 2008 10:27am
Anyone anticipating a good bounce off this fib level of the usd/chf
61.8 is the monthly fib as BRV pointed out a few posts back.
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  • #5,604
  • Edited 11:30am Nov 11, 2008 11:14am | Edited 11:30am
I'm going to give it a try selling swissie here for a big pull
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  • #5,605
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:11pm Nov 11, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
I'm going to give it a try selling swissie here for a big pull
Hey there GW,
I am watching this trade also as you seen in my prior post.What is your take on the slow creep up to this fib?Is this because trading is thin right now?And also would you enter premature of the fib level if price acted as it was coming back down?Don't mean to overload you with questions,just trying to get in the mind of someone who has a grasp of this market..Thank you again!

P.S where would you think a profit target would be suitable?
  • #5,606
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:16pm Nov 11, 2008 1:16pm
Quoting jlmac27
Hey there GW,
I am watching this trade also as you seen in my prior post.What is your take on the slow creep up to this fib?Is this because trading is thin right now?And also would you enter premature of the fib level if price acted as it was coming back down?Don't mean to overload you with questions,just trying to get in the mind of someone who has a grasp of this market..Thank you again!

P.S where would you think a profit target would be suitable?
Shorted @ 1.1874. SL 10 pips above. This is a make it or break it type of trade. There are two scenarios for me. I either get stopped out for 10-14 pips, or ride the mother of all .61 retracements
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #5,607
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:20pm Nov 11, 2008 1:20pm
BRV, thank you VERY MUCH for well thought-through posts!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #5,608
  • Nov 11, 2008 2:38pm Nov 11, 2008 2:38pm
Quoting djambazov84
Shorted @ 1.1874. SL 10 pips above. This is a make it or break it type of trade. There are two scenarios for me. I either get stopped out for 10-14 pips, or ride the mother of all .61 retracements
Really slow reaction here.good thing, bad thing?I also jumped in at 1.1876
  • #5,609
  • Nov 11, 2008 3:16pm Nov 11, 2008 3:16pm
When playing reversals I think you're looking for a quick bounce off the price. However, that doesn't mean you still won't get a reversal.

I'd be watching the Nikkei open to push it towards where ever it is going.
  • #5,610
  • Nov 11, 2008 3:17pm Nov 11, 2008 3:17pm
BRV,

great posts again. I love your short but very valuable observations, based on years of experience... these are worth memorizing, please be generous and continue giving them

"These lows, if build up enough, tend to be very strong areas, and I fade them quite frequently. It was perhaps the strongest level of support for my trade, hence, the ultimate target"
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #5,611
  • Nov 11, 2008 4:33pm Nov 11, 2008 4:33pm
This is a wonderful thread. BRV, you are a true pro
  • #5,612
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:01am Nov 12, 2008 1:01am
Quoting jlmac27
Hey there GW,
I am watching this trade also as you seen in my prior post.What is your take on the slow creep up to this fib?Is this because trading is thin right now?And also would you enter premature of the fib level if price acted as it was coming back down?Don't mean to overload you with questions,just trying to get in the mind of someone who has a grasp of this market..Thank you again!

P.S where would you think a profit target would be suitable?
Hello, JL

I'm not sure why usd/chf is moving the way it is. Maybe Brv can answer that because its important. Its my theory that usd/chf is moving erratically because eur/chf at this time is trending really well.

This was not one of my best trades or trade management plans. But I escaped with a small profit this morning at 1.1825 minor support. And just put it back on at 1.1863. First thing, I reduced position size because it was a longer term play conceptually. I had a wide stop 8 hour ATR (20 period). I put the trade on around 1.1850 yesterday and I see it spiked almost to 1.1900. Which indicated I had pretty bad timing on this one. The premise was pretty bad for me putting on this trade. More or less I was fighting the market. I was long the eur/usd from 1.2513 and when that level got hit I said the hell with it, I will nibble at usd/chf. Bad discipline, I think I told some one a few days back to treat a eur/usd and a usd/chf position separately.

Any way it was pretty much trading at its worst even though I escaped with a profit. Also maybe you would care to comment on how you treat stops when you leave a position over night. I decided to widen my stop on the eur/usd to a four hour atr (20 period) because it wasn't really going so well yet I was confident in my position. This all relates to BRV's recent series of posts. How trade management makes all the difference. Honestly, my trade management was quite poor on these trades but I awoke to some really nice gains. This is really bad reenforcement because I know that I kind of traded like shit. It just indicates that one should spend much more time testing out ideas for trade management rather than trade entries. Specifically manipulating stops in certain conditions.
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  • #5,613
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:09am Nov 12, 2008 1:09am
I think I have got my groove back. Was any one short this eur/usd move. I had shorted at 1.2602 based on euro currency index Resistance. And just went long here at 1.2531. I'm happy not about the position so much more so that I will have my risk on a tight leash.
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  • #5,614
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:12am Nov 12, 2008 1:12am
Hey my friends,
Good moves this morning

Is GU going to hit this low 1.5266, and if, will it bounce or breakout.
Lets hear some ideas as I am clueless.

Thanks in andvance
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  • #5,615
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:14am Nov 12, 2008 1:14am
Any candle enthusiasts here? Quite a beauty?
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  • #5,616
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:21am Nov 12, 2008 1:21am
Missed these two beauties, short setups weren't as clear cut for the other pairs at least for me.
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I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,617
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:30am Nov 12, 2008 1:30am
Quoting swap
Missed these two beauties, short setups weren't as clear cut for the other pairs at least for me.
I was watching those very carefuly. I saw them and passed since it was all happening at the same time. I only took the sell on eur/usd. Good eye though. My question to you is how would you have confirmed those levels.
  • #5,618
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:45am Nov 12, 2008 1:45am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I was watching those very carefuly. I saw them and passed since it was all happening at the same time. I only took the sell on eur/usd. Good eye though. My question to you is how would you have confirmed those levels.
I start off looking for supports on the last wave down which will act as resistance now that they are broken. If the level was significant historically, that's a big confirmation in my book. In these two examples, maybe not so much for the EURJPY but the AUDUSD one looks like it.

However, I did not take the AUDUSD initially as the level already acted as resistance earlier and also made a small retracement bout 20 pips from my sell. But on hindsight, a good 10-12 hours had passed since the level was first used and though I may not take it by itself, I would take it over the other pairs I'm watching. In this case, EURJPY was the ace trade for me, missed it by 2 pips, no harm though on the demo.

I'm also an avid fib puller and though subjective, the resistance levels for both pairs sit at 61.8 which seals the deal for me. I probably won't take these levels again though if price comes up to them too quickly over the next couple of hours.
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,619
  • Nov 12, 2008 1:54am Nov 12, 2008 1:54am
ADY, I've got my eye on the same area on GBPUSD too (looking at 1.5259-1.5274) for a bounce, but watch out for King talking in 40 mins time in case he starts talking about slashing interest rates again. Failing that, there's 1.5170 from back in 2002 on the daily chart and 1.5000 for a major psych level and cancelling of my holiday to new york because it'll be too expensive.

If it climbs instead, I'll be looking at taking shorts and holding on to them (1.5600 definitely, 1.5535 possibly)
  • #5,620
  • Edited 3:20am Nov 12, 2008 2:36am | Edited 3:20am
Quoting swap

I'm also an avid fib puller and though subjective, the resistance levels for both pairs sit at 61.8 which seals the deal for me. I probably won't take these levels again though if price comes up to them too quickly over the next couple of hours.


Here's some fib work for you.
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