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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,721
  • Mar 4, 2007 10:15am Mar 4, 2007 10:15am
Quoting FOURX
Hi Tam.

Thank you for your detailed explanation,I think I understand a little better now (I'm new to this).

1 more question please,which post were you trying to point me to? (1071,p.73) not yours.

ps. Hope you had a nice break, but good to see you back.And my names Tony.

cheers.
Dear Tony, you are very welcome. If you go to p. 73 of this forum (just click on hyperlink), there 3 posts of mine. Just scroll the page down - I have a distinctive Avatar.
  • #1,722
  • Mar 4, 2007 11:38am Mar 4, 2007 11:38am
Quoting oztrader
Sorry , I thought you hadnt had an up bar yet on the MACD 4 hour.Hence my chart. I hadnt read the last few pages of the thread to fully understand your last entry.This is certainly a great thread, thanks for the charts,all very helpful.

Walter
Dear Walter, no problem. But I would not recommend this trade if someone only starts the MACD strategy - one can hardly see here any signs of trending. These huge red candles down only mean to me a panick, stampede. But when I am thinking of the pair as 2 major currencies in the world, not just a jittery stock, I am aware that there are huge business transactions every day involving the both - dollar and yen. It is macro-economic, not over-the-counter or under-the-counter, environment. Even what percentage of carry-trades are there in everyday's foreign exchange transactions? We do not discount these players, but how many companies on both sides of the ocean require a counterpart currency? Think of Mitsui's recent acquiring of Louisville-based Steel Technologies for all-in-cash, HALF-A-BILLION DOLLAR, transaction. Think of many other cash international transactions which are done routinely, just for the sake of living and prospering, not for the price manupilation. Yours, T.
  • #1,723
  • Mar 4, 2007 12:15pm Mar 4, 2007 12:15pm
I am trying to catch up on this thread, really wonderful information and must add to the thanks already given to you to Phillip.

Marcia
  • #1,724
  • Mar 4, 2007 12:36pm Mar 4, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi,

think i totally made a mistake and thought you guys were talking about USDCAD when you where talking swissie!

Yes, I loved the short trade that was indicated today with the bounce off the EMA and break of support again w/MACD confirmation on both the 4 hour and 1 hour. The trade was great!!!!! (I love trading USDCHF for some odd reason).

PS you all had really nice analysis!!
Pips4uandme

Yes, I also like trading the swissie especially in trending markets, makes nice turns and no real quick (big) turn arounds. Choppiness also not with big movements.

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,725
  • Mar 4, 2007 12:53pm Mar 4, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting alcastro
Please forget about all that I said about the Euro?usd. I was looking at the Euro/GBP chart!!!! I guess it has been a long week!!!!

EURO/US:
I don't see an immediate trade here. If somebody is in the long trade generated by the RB two candle ago, enjoy the ride. I am not chasing it.
Hi Alcastro

Do you actual trade the EUR/GBP with the 4h MACD system? How do you find the trades on the EUR/GBP, easy, smaller stop loss, less choppiness?

Last week I started looking at this pair and I've realised that there is less choppiness on the charts. I did some back-testing this week-end and I found a regular 10 pips profit in each signal. I did find that one needs a regular 10 pips stop loss. Any movement more than 10 pips is a change in directions. The risk becomes bigger when one looks for more than 10 pips. However, there were a few trades with bigger profits possibilities. There were also a few negative trades.

I did find the MACD patterns very easy to identify on this pair but be careful with profit levels. Much less pips movements on this chart. Just remember to take the value of the pips into consideration with the RR planning/money management.

Any comments on this pair?

Willem
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #1,726
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:14pm Mar 4, 2007 1:14pm
Tamkras, always a pleasure to read your posts. Your mention of the macro economics is a good point. I have on occasion thought about the various players who collectively make up the world of Forex. The elephant is a complex beast made up of normal business transactions, large players (manipulators), market makers, retail traders and so forth. The whole point of thinking about this is of course to see if this little flea can catch a lucrative ride on the elephant. I suppose that is why we embrace trading systems and methodology -Phillip's MACD approach being a particularly good one because to my way of thinking it filters the complexity of price movement (i.e. all the players involved) into a rather straight forward methodology (if this happens then do this) with a high probability of success. Anyway, just my two pips worth.

P.S Nice to see another Canadian on this thread.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #1,727
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:54pm Mar 4, 2007 1:54pm
Is anyone watching the GBP/USD? Maybe it is wishfull thinking, but it could be forming a RB on the 4 Hr. MACD.
  • #1,728
  • Mar 4, 2007 2:42pm Mar 4, 2007 2:42pm
I don think the RB is forming, instead it might go further low.
  • #1,729
  • Mar 4, 2007 2:51pm Mar 4, 2007 2:51pm
Yea, Hipster thats what were lookin for, gotta wait for the signal though. It will probably retrace a bit so pull your fibs out. I am going to wait for the RB, if this happens it will probably come back to 23.6 fib at 9470 (A), which will be my TP1 and even back to 9510 (B) which is 38.2 fib, TP2. These will probably be in line somewhere with the 21 EMA. But, Ya never know, wait for Phils signal.

Jim
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  • #1,730
  • Edited 2:53pm Mar 4, 2007 2:51pm | Edited 2:53pm
I'm quite new to the system. Can you please check my understanding??

The RB that that is forming on Cable will probably generate a false signal because we are in a trending period and the candle are below the 8 MA.

Is that correct??

thanks

Mat
  • #1,731
  • Mar 4, 2007 2:56pm Mar 4, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting Golfer
Hi Alcastro

Do you actual trade the EUR/GBP with the 4h MACD system? How do you find the trades on the EUR/GBP, easy, smaller stop loss, less choppiness?

Last week I started looking at this pair and I've realised that there is less choppiness on the charts. I did some back-testing this week-end and I found a regular 10 pips profit in each signal. I did find that one needs a regular 10 pips stop loss. Any movement more than 10 pips is a change in directions. The risk becomes bigger when one looks for more than 10 pips. However, there were a few trades with bigger profits possibilities. There were also a few negative trades.

I did find the MACD patterns very easy to identify on this pair but be careful with profit levels. Much less pips movements on this chart. Just remember to take the value of the pips into consideration with the RR planning/money management.

Any comments on this pair?

Willem

Willem,

No, I do not trade this pair. i was looking at it just out of curiosity. I am sticking to the Euro/US; GB/Us; US/CAD(?); and US/JP. And will stick ti then until I feel confident with Phillips system And if I am making good pips with these pairs....why look for more?
  • #1,732
  • Edited 3:12pm Mar 4, 2007 3:10pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting hard1head1
Yea, Hipster thats what were lookin for, gotta wait for the signal though. It will probably retrace a bit so pull your fibs out. I am going to wait for the RB, if this happens it will probably come back to 23.6 fib at 9470 (A), which will be my TP1 and even back to 9510 (B) which is 38.2 fib, TP2. These will probably be in line somewhere with the 21 EMA. But, Ya never know, wait for Phils signal.

Jim
Hi Jim,

I agree with your analysis. I will only add that I would enter a s/l slightly below the tail of the previous candle, since based on Palmer's observation, if the RB is a real one, price will not go below this tail (1.9407-including spread)
On the other hand, the 1hr chart is showing a trend coontinuation pattern that started many candles ago. If it is going to continue it might go up to the 23.6 retracement fib, which is (guess what?) 1.9470 (the same level of the 23.6 fibo in the 4hr chart!!!).
So.......if MACD gives the signal I will jump in for this short counter-trend ride, up to the 1.9470, and being the chicken that I am (don't let my avatar fool you - I am over-compensating with it) I will close all my positions there and wait for a trend continuation signal.....or just relax reading the excellent posts in this thread.
  • #1,733
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:11pm Mar 4, 2007 3:11pm
GBP/USD:

This is the daily chart. The pair looked to have been stuck in the funk for a while and broke out to the downside. Yes, the 4hr looks to be forming an RB but the daily looks like there might be more room to the downside....
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  • #1,734
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:19pm Mar 4, 2007 3:19pm
Quoting Palmer
GBP/USD:

This is the daily chart. The pair looked to have been stuck in the funk for a while and broke out to the downside. Yes, the 4hr looks to be forming an RB but the daily looks like there might be more room to the downside....
Agree, Palmer. This is a very strong move down.
  • #1,735
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:52pm Mar 4, 2007 3:52pm
my trend lines show an upper tl about 30 pips above... i also see more room to the downside and since such a dramatic fall... it may pullback and do it again? think the usd/jpy pair last week. i'll wait to find continuation.... if it comes

Quoting tamkras
Agree, Palmer. This is a very strong move down.
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,736
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:11pm Mar 4, 2007 4:11pm
Just a few thoughts here on the EURUSD:

The 4hr is above the 89 so we are in 'bullish mode'. Price may come back to the trendline, which is above the 89 as well and bounce back up. The 1hr is in a price channel, towards the top of it right now and looks to be forming a RT. I may take the 1hr trade (short) as a counter trend trade against the 4hr. Reason: Price may head back down to the lower end of the price channel on the 1hr which may be back down to the trendline on the 4hr. I haven't checked the news calender yet. Either way that's the way I see things right now. Pay no attention to the RSI and FX-FISH indicators on the charts. They are there to confuse me only ;-)

Hey look, my 500th post...Don't I get a free t-shirt or something?
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  • #1,737
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:12pm Mar 4, 2007 4:12pm
The 1hr:
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  • #1,738
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:32pm Mar 4, 2007 4:32pm
Guess who????

I'm still trying to interpret the horizontal lines with the MACD. I just noticed on the 4hr that there is a double bottom on the MACD at the -15 level on the 4hr and the MACD is right at the zero line and may break back to positive territory. But, a red bar on the 4hr MACD may strengthen the move back down to the trendline. I'm waiting on the 1hr close either way.
  • #1,739
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:49pm Mar 4, 2007 4:49pm
I mainly use this indicator for breakout trades on the short time frame ,plus when your eyesight is staring to fade it helps me on the 4 hour.Use Phillips MACD for trade calls on 4 hour.
  • #1,740
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:56pm Mar 4, 2007 4:56pm
Thanks for the reply.I only posted because I thought you were busting to trade the pullback.Unless we are on strong support I will not go near it.I think we are in for a great week. All the best.
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