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No Brainer Trades

  • #5,481
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:23am Nov 10, 2008 9:23am
Quoting Guerrillawar
On this particular trade I wasn't basing my decision on a candle chart. I was using a modified line chart. There was perfect symmetry, a quad pivot area and I knew how the floor would trade this market.
Thanks for the reply GW,You mention on "how the floor would trade this market"Would you mind to elaborate a bit on this?Thanks
  • #5,482
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:29am Nov 10, 2008 9:29am
As newbie in this forum I would like to know as when S or R line is 20 pips to touch how do you decide to sell or buy?
  • #5,483
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:37am Nov 10, 2008 9:37am
Quoting cliffedwards
I have personally lost more money over the years on this B****** than any other pair.. Stay away...
Its in step with WTI not S&P

For me the Cad did the best in the last couple of months.
The breakouts are like test book.

Guys,
The dollar is resting now. Do you think it would go stronger more or revese the big last move (last 90 minutes)?
It is not clear as fundamentals are resting too...
  • #5,484
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:43am Nov 10, 2008 9:43am
Hi Folks,
How are you all today? I was thinking of shorting USD/CHF and EU/GBP at current levels. Could any of you elaborate on this , as I am frequently getting in to unnecessary trouble. Your advice & insight in this regard will be immensley appreciated.


Thank you!
BANDA333
  • #5,485
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:47am Nov 10, 2008 9:47am
Quoting jlmac27
Thanks for the reply GW,You mention on "how the floor would trade this market"Would you mind to elaborate a bit on this?Thanks
1. The floor aren't suckers. They don't buy into news they sell into news. They love to take money away from late news based traders.

2. In general they fill gaps. This isn't a hard and fast rule but in general. Especially if the news is foreign based. And even more so if its from Asia and not Europe. Also the gap was right into resistance in a confirmed bear market. Nobody wants to put on a real size long only to see a drive to fill the gap. So real size orders won't be put in at the extended levels the market was at earlier.
  • #5,486
  • Edited 10:12am Nov 10, 2008 9:55am | Edited 10:12am
Quoting ady27
For me the Cad did the best in the last couple of months.
The breakouts are like test book.
...
Hey ADY27...So youre the guy whose been taking my money... !!!!!!
LoL
  • #5,487
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:58am Nov 10, 2008 9:58am
Quoting Guerrillawar
1. The floor aren't suckers. They don't buy into news they sell into news. They love to take money away from late news based traders.

2. In general they fill gaps. This isn't a hard and fast rule but in general. Especially if the news is foreign based. And even more so if its from Asia and not Europe. Also the gap was right into resistance in a confirmed bear market. Nobody wants to put on a real size long only to see a drive to fill the gap. So real size orders won't be put in at the extended levels the market was at earlier.
GW, where did you place your stops on the trades you've mentioned today, thanks?
  • #5,488
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:58am Nov 10, 2008 9:58am
This is my best trade from a diagonal TL so far. No brain, 150+ Pips. After last week I have to catch up some losses...

http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/8...0081110yl0.png
  • #5,489
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:09am Nov 10, 2008 10:09am
Quoting Sanook
GW, where did you place your stops on the trades you've mentioned today, thanks?
All my stops are always the same. A 60 minute 20 period ATR.
  • #5,490
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:09am Nov 10, 2008 10:09am
[quote=cliffedwards;2338484]
Quoting ady27
For me the Cad did the best in the last couple of months.
The breakouts are like test book.
quote]
Hey ADY27...So youre the guy whose been taking my money... !!!!!!
LoL
I have found USDCAD to be fairly easy to trade myself too. When it breaks support and resistance it frequently retests it in my experience. So for the near term support/resistance strategy, I would say there is no better pair. Now USDCHF I'd say is a pain.
  • #5,491
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:19am Nov 10, 2008 10:19am
You guys want in idea. Eur/chf 1.5038. Be careful though since Eur/jpy is in the driver seat today. I'm not going to personally take it because I don't want to damage a good day. But if I wasn't up I would be carefully looking at this level
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  • #5,492
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:31am Nov 10, 2008 10:31am
Guerrillawar

Do u guys ever use pivots or do u just rely on your own support and resistance levels ?
  • #5,493
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:32am Nov 10, 2008 10:32am
here a chart usd/cad. In a purely mechanical manner if you entered on most re-tests it appears you get stopped out. I know that its not necessary to enter on every one but it appears at first glance to have a high number of stop outs. I don't like to rely on skill. I would like to see a better than 50/50 odds. I think that in USD/CAD this methodology is no better than 50/50. However, buying and selling the initial break seems more workable with this pair. For me personally I will never trade a break strategy because I can't reign in my risk.
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  • #5,494
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:36am Nov 10, 2008 10:36am
Quoting Billy73
Guerrillawar

Do u guys ever use pivots or do u just rely on your own support and resistance levels ?
Pivots, fibo, and trend lines just clog up your chart. Confluence is a big waste of time and causes confusion. I want nothing on my charts. However, BRV I think likes that stuff, I'm not sure though.
  • #5,495
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:49am Nov 10, 2008 10:49am
Quoting Guerrillawar
here a chart usd/cad. In a purely mechanical manner if you entered on most re-tests it appears you get stopped out. I know that its not necessary to enter on every one but it appears at first glance to have a high number of stop outs. I don't like to rely on skill. I would like to see a better than 50/50 odds. I think that in USD/CAD this methodology is no better than 50/50. However, buying and selling the initial break seems more workable with this pair. For me personally I will never trade a break strategy because I can't reign in my risk.

Dear Guerrilla ,

You can see the spots that i have marked with arrows.
On the same line, first resistance then on the same on support.
Easy money. Give it room to breath though, sometimes it is fast and fury...
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  • #5,496
  • Nov 10, 2008 10:51am Nov 10, 2008 10:51am
Watching 1.2722/03

1.2703 is a bucket from November 6th, has confluence from the lower TL
  • #5,497
  • Nov 10, 2008 11:24am Nov 10, 2008 11:24am
im going to re-enter short eur/usd if retest 1.28
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  • #5,498
  • Nov 10, 2008 11:32am Nov 10, 2008 11:32am
I'm still on demo and this is the trade I took earlier on USDCAD, just amazed to see how similar the GBPUSD setup is to the USDCAD. Missed it though when I set the buy closer to the sloping trendline. Just adding more trades to the examples so we can pick something up from the good ones.

USDCAD max pips +280, max drawdown -17, GBPUSD would have been good for a max +70 fade as of now. Also missed two trades earlier on the EURUSD by a few pips, the short again, was similar to the GBPUSD/USDCAD setups just in reverse. A USDCAD short didn't work out this time, I believe some of you were watching that level, I got stopped out as well.

These aren't live trades as I'm still learning myself and am not so comfortable with picking the S/R as there were lots of times when price retraced before hitting my levels and I have to cancel the order. The dashed/dotted lines you see are my next target buy/sell and stop loss.
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I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,499
  • Nov 10, 2008 11:35am Nov 10, 2008 11:35am
Quoting lafedgar
im going to re-enter short eur/usd if retest 1.28
was watching this as well, I suppose this would qualify as a breakout play, seems like 1.2780-90 is quite a significant level for the EURUSD
I need to put up stop losses.
  • #5,500
  • Nov 10, 2008 11:36am Nov 10, 2008 11:36am
Hi Guys,
Can somebody tell me that on a day like today where the price is following the Oil do you still take into account your S&R levels or do you just have to kind of discard them and wait till the oil price calms down to get back to S&L trading?
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