4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 86 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,701
  • Mar 3, 2007 10:17am Mar 3, 2007 10:17am
Good call Twoelev,

Pre-flight checklist under "overall weather" I have check the news

Why do we need news anyway??? It would make trading much easier....

Quoting Tw0eleven
Hope everyone enjoys their weekend! When you come back on Sunday/Monday for more trading...just wanted to let you know there is a lot of news coming out this week so be very careful. We have interest rate decisions on the AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP and EUR. Plus we have non-farm payroll for the US. Could be difficult trading or whipsawing going on!
DireXiv Make it happen, no one else is going to do it for you...
  • #1,702
  • Mar 3, 2007 11:47am Mar 3, 2007 11:47am
Quoting hard1head1
Pips,

I am new to this being a trader for only about 1 year, however, here are my thought on why the EUR/USD will follow. The pair have just breaced a trendine (A) that has been tested 4 times (Rectangles) since the 12th of this month. It is now re-testing the back side of it. It is also retesting the top of a downward channel (X). Now all we need is Phils system to give us an entry and we got a shot at 1.3144 which is right above the 89 SMA (B) and possibly trade the channel (2nd Chart) to the next trend line (C) just below it. I believe we will see a move to zero and back down on MACD (arrow). Any comments or help on this would be appreciated.

If you think I am wrong, please don't be afraid to say so as we can only learn from our mistakes

J
Hiya Hard1Head1,

Thanks for answering my question. Really nice job on your analysis!!!! Just wanted to make sure you weren't thinking about a short just because the pound fell. I agree that the Euro is heading back down to the 1.3050 level too (I think the trend is tired and needs a little break + we are at topping off level for now). But, again, what I think doesn't matter, it's what the market says that counts (and you've done an amazingly fantastic job at analysing that for this pair!).

Also, congrats on trading for a year!!! That is AWESOME! You have just done better than 95% of people who start off in this endeavor (read that 95% of new traders abandon the "job" after 6 - 12 months).

Hope your daughter kicked your butt at bowling (hehe)!!!!!!

Gotta go meet my mom now for a little shopping trip (time to spend some of those hard earned pips ).
  • #1,703
  • Mar 3, 2007 11:50am Mar 3, 2007 11:50am
Hey DireXiv,

Sounds like you have an aspiring trader on your hands! Have heard that kids are amazingly good at spotting chart patterns and recognizing price action!! Bet your daughters first words will be either "Short" or "Long"!

Have a great weekend!

pips
  • #1,704
  • Mar 3, 2007 11:57am Mar 3, 2007 11:57am
Thanks for the encouragement, it will be interesting to see how phils system coincides with this down channel. The top of the channel should represent lower highs and the bottom lower lows. A little more confirmation never hurt anyone.

Jim
  • #1,705
  • Mar 3, 2007 12:42pm Mar 3, 2007 12:42pm
Summary
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Summary.zip   798 KB | 1,887 downloads
File Type: pdf Summary.pdf   34 KB | 2,142 downloads
  • #1,706
  • Mar 3, 2007 1:06pm Mar 3, 2007 1:06pm
Phillip:

Thanks for reminding me about the trend lines as being profit targets...
  • #1,707
  • Mar 3, 2007 1:16pm Mar 3, 2007 1:16pm
Info
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EurJpy.zip   455 KB | 1,387 downloads
  • #1,708
  • Mar 3, 2007 4:20pm Mar 3, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Summary

Great stuff, Phillip!

The relationship between Price, Channels, and MACD (i.e. head and shoulders giving a false signal, etc.) Fantastic!

This is so much Fun!

Thanks,


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,709
  • Mar 3, 2007 5:44pm Mar 3, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting Chandra
Woju2,
Icould not get it. What market and what signal U R refering to here? Pl. clarify.
Thank.
-Chandra.
Hi

I meant in general. Any market and any signal but on Friday. For example RB, Eur on Friday at 15.00 (GMT). Would you take it? Was it to late?

Woju2
  • #1,710
  • Mar 3, 2007 5:51pm Mar 3, 2007 5:51pm
Quoting FOURX
Tamkras.

Could you please explain this post ,as I would of thought long would need a trend reversal signal.Or is it the longer term channel you are referring to? If this is so I would still like to know where you see the signal.

Also could you be kind enough to explain the nesting dolls mentioned, or point me in the direction of the post where they have been explained.

cheers.
Hi, FOURX (I usually write Dear.. but I do not know your real name, my apologies),

Let me first respond to your second question as it was my promised homework and I will then move on to the first in reverse order. I like to treat price action in an old-fashioned way - bars and candles formation. I am also looking at how the price acts/responds to the recent significant areas - new high, or low, narrow consolidation, etc. Where the price is rejected over and over again from something, as if there is a brick wall. Price reminds me of water as it tries to find a space to fill. Look at this Friday's fall of the pound. Count how many times the currency (flow, water..) fails to run over a certain level of resistance with each attempt losing impetus and strength until the action reverses and a small discouragement becomes a major stampede. MACD shows it all, but in a different dimension which we need to read correctly as a supporting tool. When I was in the search of this 'something' I, probably like many others, used to designate resistance or support at the recent high or low (on any timeframes, I do however, prefer 4HR and daily). Unfortunately, with outstanding rate of failures. If the price reaches the level of a recent top it usually went higher or vice versa. What a frustrating game! Through these failures I came across an observation which I shared on this forum, i.e. where the price is rejected from the inside of a top or bottom. For me, to identify an inside top or bottom there must be a price consolidation (the longer the better) with narrow bars or candles on the previous top or bottom - this becomes a barrier.

USD/JPY Example

Now, let's look at the recent price action of usd/jpy pair. Please, see chart.

You can see that the top is 121.62 and then there is a bearish engulfing candle (righto, Alcastro!) It alerts me and I then overlay this current top on the previous one. The price is moving away from the inner part of consolidated range of the major top. Notice how many 'indecisive' candles there are at that major top! To support my finding I am evaluating even the SHAPE of both tops and amazingly they look like twins, those stars and shoulders that I describe on the chart are like birthmarks - forever. For me to enter the market there is only 1 critical component waiting -MACD sell signal (thanks to Phillip's discovery). Once I have it I move on.

Hope it explains my thoughts at the time of decision-making as a trader. Once I made the decision, the rest is simple - I clicked some buttons and posted my trade. Please, see my post 1071, p. 73 of this forum. Now, when this game shorting the pair is over, many probably think it was a perfect setup. No, it was not! I do not believe there are any. At that time I also struggled with contradicting concepts and alas it is no fun. Trading can not be reduced to a few rules. I use Phil's MACD strategy to invoke the plan once all my trading analysis is done. O.k. now, let's move to another recent post on EUR/USD where price action was indicative of a shorting scenario. Yours, Tamara.
Attached Image
  • #1,711
  • Mar 3, 2007 6:22pm Mar 3, 2007 6:22pm
EUR/USD Example

I posted my observation of the same pattern of inside top for eurodollar in supporting Alcastro's plan. While the current top is not fully completed and there is a chance of reversal should the bearish rising wedge is broken I anyway liked the formation and based on the final MACD signal suggested this as a shorting opportinuty.

Basically, all my observations are on the chart and they are in line with what I said previously regarding this pattern. By no means the pattern is something new. I just use 'inside top' or 'inside bottom' to tell me that one stacks upon each other (hence, nesting dolls term which I had a feeling were ridiculed on the forum). Anyway, the concept of adjacent tops is credited to the Japanese charting techniques. There is special formation called in a three Buddha top. The opposite is three river bottom pattern (yes, again about river). These patterns, however, do not necessarily talk about stacking pattern. This is where individual extension of the classic rules come into play. Yours, Tamara.
Attached Image
  • #1,712
  • Mar 3, 2007 8:05pm Mar 3, 2007 8:05pm
Hey Tamkras,

great to see you back!!!
Your charts and explanations are excellent. Thanks a lot for them.
Looking forward to a profitable week!
  • #1,713
  • Mar 3, 2007 11:40pm Mar 3, 2007 11:40pm
NOBODY KNOWS

Nuts and bolts of a trader's fate. Lot is a synonym for fate. When I am planning for next week's trading I am very interested in the fate of usd/jpy and gather some info from the field. I've put it on the chart. But I favor the reversal because this is what my trading plan and personality tells me. If I lose this round, I will greet the stronger and step aside. I believe this daily chart explains my thoughts and doubts. I will have less doubts when the next MACD 4HR bar will be green. Yours, Tamkras.
Attached Image
  • #1,714
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:34am Mar 4, 2007 1:34am
Tamkras be ready to be quick off the blocks,this is a copy of my chart

Cheers
Attached Image
  • #1,715
  • Mar 4, 2007 2:01am Mar 4, 2007 2:01am
Sorry , I thought you hadnt had an up bar yet on the MACD 4 hour.Hence my chart. I hadnt read the last few pages of the thread to fully understand your last entry.This is certainly a great thread, thanks for the charts,all very helpful.

Walter
  • #1,716
  • Mar 4, 2007 4:08am Mar 4, 2007 4:08am
If I were a bettin man. I would take this long on the next signal, place my stop 100 pips back..... Set a TP1 at 118.70,... and X marks the spot at about 119.60 approx 400 pips for TP2 and check on April fools day. LOL

AJ
Attached Image
Disclaimer: Take all trades at your own risk. Trade Demo account only.
  • #1,717
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:40am Mar 4, 2007 6:40am
Quoting AJspeed
If I were a bettin man. I would take this long on the next signal, place my stop 100 pips back..... Set a TP1 at 118.70,... and X marks the spot at about 119.60 approx 400 pips for TP2 and check on April fools day. LOL

AJ
You almost read my thoughts. Congratulations!
  • #1,718
  • Edited 10:16am Mar 4, 2007 7:04am | Edited 10:16am
Hope you would not mind if I post some of my notes from my trade journal. I am sure many of us keep these thoughts somewhere. This is the weekend and let's enjoy it.

If I see uncertainty in a price action for more than 5 minutes I stay away from the market.

My stop will be taken today but my target would be reached in 3-5 days.

If you love price action more than your family it is a mental case.

There are 3 market forces: you, the institutions and the Creator. But if I start praying over the price I exit.

Frustration is a trader's middle man but the Plan is his or her's first.

Forex is a macro-economics. It is amazing how many traders in there versus the scientists.

This is one of my favourites. "Virtually every successful trader I know ultimately ended up with a trading style suited to his personality." This assertion belongs to Randy McKay profiled in the New Market Wizards by Jack D. Schwager.
  • #1,719
  • Mar 4, 2007 7:57am Mar 4, 2007 7:57am
Quoting tamkras
Hi, FOURX (I usually write Dear.. but I do not know your real name, my apologies),

Let me first respond to your second question as it was my promised homework and I will then move on to the first in reverse order. I like to treat price action in an old-fashioned way - bars and candles formation. I am also looking at how the price acts/responds to the recent significant areas - new high, or low, narrow consolidation, etc. Where the price is rejected over and over again from something, as if there is a brick wall. Price reminds me of water as it tries to find a space to fill. Look at this Friday's fall of the pound. Count how many times the currency (flow, water..) fails to run over a certain level of resistance with each attempt losing impetus and strength until the action reverses and a small discouragement becomes a major stampede. MACD shows it all, but in a different dimension which we need to read correctly as a supporting tool. When I was in the search of this 'something' I, probably like many others, used to designate resistance or support at the recent high or low (on any timeframes, I do however, prefer 4HR and daily). Unfortunately, with outstanding rate of failures. If the price reaches the level of a recent top it usually went higher or vice versa. What a frustrating game! Through these failures I came across an observation which I shared on this forum, i.e. where the price is rejected from the inside of a top or bottom. For me, to identify an inside top or bottom there must be a price consolidation (the longer the better) with narrow bars or candles on the previous top or bottom - this becomes a barrier.

USD/JPY Example

Now, let's look at the recent price action of usd/jpy pair. Please, see chart.

You can see that the top is 121.62 and then there is a bearish engulfing candle (righto, Alcastro!) It alerts me and I then overlay this current top on the previous one. The price is moving away from the inner part of consolidated range of the major top. Notice how many 'indecisive' candles there are at that major top! To support my finding I am evaluating even the SHAPE of both tops and amazingly they look like twins, those stars and shoulders that I describe on the chart are like birthmarks - forever. For me to enter the market there is only 1 critical component waiting -MACD sell signal (thanks to Phillip's discovery). Once I have it I move on.

Hope it explains my thoughts at the time of decision-making as a trader. Once I made the decision, the rest is simple - I clicked some buttons and posted my trade. Please, see my post 1071, p. 73 of this forum. Now, when this game shorting the pair is over, many probably think it was a perfect setup. No, it was not! I do not believe there are any. At that time I also struggled with contradicting concepts and alas it is no fun. Trading can not be reduced to a few rules. I use Phil's MACD strategy to invoke the plan once all my trading analysis is done. O.k. now, let's move to another recent post on EUR/USD where price action was indicative of a shorting scenario. Yours, Tamara.
Hi Tam.

Thank you for your detailed explanation,I think I understand a little better now (I'm new to this).

1 more question please,which post were you trying to point me to? (1071,p.73) not yours.

ps. Hope you had a nice break, but good to see you back.And my names Tony.

cheers.
  • #1,720
  • Edited 9:39am Mar 4, 2007 9:23am | Edited 9:39am
oztrader:

What is that FX-FISH indicator you're using?

And, does anyone know how to draw a shorter trendline in MT4 versus using the trendline tool button?

Nevermind oztrader, I found it. But, does it repaint the last bar or step backwards and correct itself?

Nice charts tamkras.
4 traders viewing now