Caution: Math Geek at Work

The account was up 5.4% this week.

Starting this week I'll update this journal more frequently. The reason for this is that I'm not just trading the EUR/JPY with a standard set of rules any more. I may hop from pair to pair as fundamental data develops. For example, in my last post I was short USD/JPY and long CAD/JPY, but since then I've done several trades which resulted in my current short position in CHF/JPY.

I post these daily on the front page of market-geeks.com, but since I change the page each day, there's no record. So this journal will be the record.

If you don't mind some misspellings, you will find many trading gems here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=57639

Enjoy.

Yes, a lot of good stuff there! Been there a bunch of times, since fti started the thread. It's gotten really long now, so I haven't kept up as much.

I'm supposed to be updating more often, but we're getting overwhelmed with work at my current day job so time is short these days. Right now I'm in two currently profitable trades, short CHF/JPY and short AUD/JPY.

I'm watching the steep rise of USD/CAD and all my fundamental indications are that that pair should be weakening. The falling demand for oil is hurting CAD I think, so that's continuing to skew the pair upward away from the economic story. So I'm watching for a short opportunity.

I'm exploring some concepts of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for timing.

A little contribution with my humble experience.

"Averages trading" gets killed by market extremes. "Market extremes trading" gets killed by the averages. No easy money, bro.

(I may always be wrong)

Happy trading.

Down 42.7% last week on the continuing collapse of the New Zealand Dollar. Dumped most of my NZD position. Bleh.

1000pip SL is not enough or maybe its too much

Now I'm back to this basic approach:

-watching for trade opportunities based on the fundies
-entering when the trend conforms to my fundamental view
-maintaining trailing stops
-adding to the trade when it moves into more profitable territory.

This is working pretty well for my short AUD/JPY and CHF/JPY positions.
I'm watching for a short opportunity in USD/CAD.

The account was down 6.6% this week.

I've developed a new set of tools which incorporate fundamentals, technicals and statistics to create a clearer picture. Two of them are on the front page of market-geeks.com; the current performance of each currency based on oil buying power, and the index of "news release pressures."

I've created a little tool in Excel that allows me to combine the results of these two analyses to see pending opportunities; i.e. a currency that is currently weak but which has strong fundamental pressures is a pending long opportunity. Based on this, I identified three longer-term views; short USD/CAD (in which I already have a position), long EUR/CHF and long AUD/JPY.

Two other tools I developed are based on technicals and statistics. The first uses a variation on the ideas of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to try to identify days on which large traders are accumulating or distributing in preparation for a new trend. The second uses price bar patterns and basic statistics to estimate good locations for stops and TP's from bar to bar.

Based on this last tool, I just entered a short position in AUD/JPY (contrary to my long-term view on that pair, but this is a short-term trade). Entry was 65.60 with a stop at 68.20 and a TP of 63.20.

I haven't been keeping up with my trades in this journal, so I'll try to keep track in a consistent format. Currently I have:

1. USD/CAD: Short 6 "units" at average of 1.2163, SL=1.2900. Open order to add 4 more units at 1.1850

2. AUD/JPY: Short 10 units at 65.60, SL=68.20, TP=63.20.

I included a TP on the AUD/JPY trade because it's contrary to my fundamental view. On the USD/CAD trade, I want to let the profits run as far as possible, so I'm just trailing a wide stop.

Time for the longggggg climb back up to profitability?

Based on my comparison of news release pressures vs. actual performance, my focus list has shifted to:

SHORT USD/CAD (see trade #1)
LONG EUR/JPY (see trade #3)
LONG GBP/CHF (no trade yet)

1. SHORT USD/CAD: This went down enough to trigger my add of 4 units, so now I'm short 10 units at an average price of 1.2038. Based on my daily bar statistical tool, I've moved my stop down to 1.2400. I also have an open order to add 2 more units at 1.1800.

2. LONG AUD/JPY: Stopped out of this one. Realized loss = 2.2% of prior account value.

3. LONG EUR/JPY: Entered for 10 units at 124.71 with a stop at 120.00 and no TP. This is on the new focus list, and I entered tonight based on additional analysis from my bar pattern statistical tool.

Doing well on the short USD/CAD and long EUR/JPY. No position yet in GBP/CHF but a long there is looking better and better.

1. SHORT USD/CAD: My order for 2 more units filled so now I'm short 12 units at an average of 1.1988. I have an additional sell order for 8 more units at 1.1450 and I have moved the SL down to 1.21, so it's almost at B/E.

2. LONG EUR/JPY: Still long 10 units at an average of 124.71 with an order to buy an additional 2 at 131.00. I've moved the stop up to 123.00 on this one.

1. SHORT USD/CAD: This pulled back a bit today, but both of my technical tools are flashing short for the next 24 hours. Specifically, it looks like some strong hands may have been selling the pair into the strength today. My position is still 12 units at an average price of 1.1998, I still have the order for an additional 8 units at 1.1450 and I have moved the stop to 1.1950.

2. LONG EUR/JPY: This pulled back a bit today too, and I'm getting lukewarm long signals from my technical tools. My position is still 10 units at an average price of 124.71 with an order to buy an additional 2 at 131.00. The stop is still at 123.00.

3. LONG GBP/CHF: Today was the day! Both technical tools are flashing long on this one with some possible accumulation during today's down bar. I bought 10 "units" at 1.8432 with a stop at 1.7900.

Thatttt's alllll.....

Just a quick note. Whenever I close out a trade, I'll post a chart showing all the entries and the exit to show an overview of the whole progression of the position. So stay tuned!

I change horses so often that it seems kind of tedious and pointless to keep recording each trade in here. I think I'll go back to just weekly account equity updates.

Down 1.6% over the past week.

total wrap up from inception ?

The weekly wrapup is just for the week; so they're cumulative. The account is down 88% since inception. Here's the chart.



I'm not planning to refund it though until it either completely runs out of funds or until I get a consistent increase in equity over several months.

Not planning Refund to invest person ? or Re Fund the account..

the idea of the system is good, but like all thing we need people with left side of brain to help us(math geek) with our ideas. otherwise it usually stays .

Re-fund the account.