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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,661
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:45pm Mar 2, 2007 3:45pm
Quoting mandoaddam
any one could help me here and give me his opinion on the direction of GBP/JPY

Post#1614 Mp3.

What Phillip talks about the USDJPY can be applied to the GBPJPY.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,662
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:46pm Mar 2, 2007 3:46pm
Quoting mandoaddam
any one could help me here and give me his opinion on the direction of GBP/JPY
I have been trading that pair for the past week, using a system I created I was able to get in at the very top of that downfall.

Its fallen over 900 pips at this point so it is in desperate need of a correction, but this pair could fall even harder before it starts its climb back up.

We may have reached a bottom, Im unsure, I would not trade it for a while until you know which direction it is headed, it moves quickly, and could cause you to lose alot of money, so be patient.
  • #1,663
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:47pm Mar 2, 2007 3:47pm
Hi All,

I am new to this forum although I have followed this thread from the beginning. Like many people I have invested in training with limited benefits. I have made most if not all the mistakes a new trader can make and probably found a few more of my own over the past year and a half.

I thank each and every one of you who have so generously given your insight and time, especially, Phillip, of course who continually gives so much of himself.

Since applying the lessons and listening to your advice I am beginning to see the light.
This past week I have gained 121 pips. The last trade was the EUR/USD with it's perfect RB. I entered at 1.3154 with first PT at 1.3180. Although I got a little anxious when it stalled there, I took 50% profit and let it run up to 1.3195 for a gain of 41 pips.

I hope I am able to contribute as I gain more confidence.
Have a great weekend.
  • #1,664
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:53pm Mar 2, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting Chandra
Hello Golfer,
Here is my ake on this trade refered by Ramesh:

He is asking :

hi, is there a short signal for U/C now? MACD turned above zero and after 3 bars it moved below zero .8 and 21 ema is quite near as resistance. please guide. thanks"

He is refering to USDCHF at 12:00 on today Friday 3/22007.

It is not a bad trade as follows:
Short at the opening of 1600 candle at/around 2195 (entry - short).
SL at 21 MA @ 2221 - 26 pips loss.
TP1 at 78.6% febi @ 2165 - 30 pip gain.(price level barrier at 2150 is there).
R:R is greater than 1.
TP2 at 100% febi at 2138 - 57 pips gain.

Am I missing anything except it is Friday of course
Now (21:20:58 GMT) the price has hit the TP1. price is 2163 and still crawling down in Friday siasta.
Please comment.
-Chandra
Chandra,

I agree with your analysis, it was a cuasi bounce from zero line in MACD, and price was bouncing from the 21 MA and following the trend.But I am little confused with your profit targets. Which were the high and low points for your fib lines?
  • #1,665
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:03pm Mar 2, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting O'Zeeke
Hi Chandra, I tried that just once on the gbp interest rate announcment and fxcm made me "wait for dealers answer" for 15 min. Yes for 15 min i was locked out waiting for their answer. i fortunately made a couple of pips by the time it click in. i now have a new broker. thanks Chandra for all your helpful info
O'zeeke,

Trading news is a very risky game. Many brokers play dirty tricks on their clients at the time of the news: one of them is what happened to you: freeze the trade for a while: another one is increase the spread. Check Oanda for this. Their spread may go up to 20!!! As a matter of fact, recently, by mistake , they increased the spread to 200 in the cable for the NFP(when they were increasing it to 20). Obviously many tradrs were burned. Oanda returned the losses to the traders....but it shows you the dirty tricks this guys have in their pocket. Other trick brokers play is "straddle hunting". They move the price up and down violently before news to get the stops that the straddlers have placed. so.....beware when you are playing the news. It may be a russian roulette!!!
  • #1,666
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:15pm Mar 2, 2007 4:15pm
Quoting ryant1947
Hi All,

I am new to this forum although I have followed this thread from the beginning. Like many people I have invested in training with limited benefits. I have made most if not all the mistakes a new trader can make and probably found a few more of my own over the past year and a half.

I thank each and every one of you who have so generously given your insight and time, especially, Phillip, of course who continually gives so much of himself.

Since applying the lessons and listening to your advice I am beginning to see the light.
This past week I have gained 121 pips. The last trade was the EUR/USD with it's perfect RB. I entered at 1.3154 with first PT at 1.3180. Although I got a little anxious when it stalled there, I took 50% profit and let it run up to 1.3195 for a gain of 41 pips.

I hope I am able to contribute as I gain more confidence.
Have a great weekend.
Nice trade ryant. I took the same trade. Phillip's stratgy works so well once you get the feel of it. When there is a distinct trend on the 89 sma and MACD gives a signal, I perk up and take notice.

The trend is your friend until the bend at the end.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,667
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:35pm Mar 2, 2007 4:35pm
Quoting pips4uandme
One last fun reply....

Wow, this forum has it all.... Lions, dolls, crystal balls, Jonny Walker, piggies and Batman!! Holy Cow!!! What a forum!!!
WHERE IS THE HOLY COW.... WHERE IS THE HOLY COW. WHERE IS THE HOLY COW...
-Chandra
  • #1,668
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:40pm Mar 2, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting Palmer
Did ya get in people??? I was in a meeting all morning but I got in on the RB on the 4hr. I've got about 15 locked in cause I've got to leave again but I'll close it out before the market closes either way.

ajaso: There's a color MACD indicator posted in the thread somewhere. CLick on the paperclip icon for this thread an it'll be easy to find....
Hi ajaso,
attached the color MACD file Have fun
-Chandra
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 MACD_H4_300_v100.ex4   4 KB | 737 downloads
  • #1,669
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:41pm Mar 2, 2007 4:41pm
Here is what I will be watching at the beginning of next week:

Euro/US:
Will wait for a retracement in the 4hr chart.
The 1hr chart already started it in the price (with dojis and hangmans), and MACD is showing a TC pattern.
May turn into a TC long or RT.

Cable:
Possible RB in 4hr chart (counter-trend)
The price in 1hr is very close tothe 8MA, and since it is a counter-trend may go up to the 21 before bouncing back....hmmm...I will saty out for the moment.
If the 4hr shows a TC to the short side, will jump in.

Us/Cad:
Nothing yet.

Any thoughts/comments/critics? As always, the good, the bad, and the ugly arer welcome.
  • #1,670
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:51pm Mar 2, 2007 4:51pm
O'Zeeke:

Plot the RSI as normal. Then select the RSI again from the navigator window but drag it INTO the first RSI window that you plotted, not back onto the chart window, that'll do it.

It's Friday. It's 5pm. It's time for some Johnnie Walker and a good cigar....see you guys on Sunday, be safe.
  • #1,671
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:02pm Mar 2, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting 5forMe
Yahoo- I made 22 on the Euro.

Reasons to enter Round bottom, trendline up high, price 1.3200, I was prepared for it to stop at 1.3200, but ready in case it didn't.

Entry 1.3167
st 1.3140
tp 1.3200

I had to leave my computer to take care of my 5 sons (ages 9mos to 9 years)
Price went up to 1.3199 and retraced back to 1.3188 which is where I took my pips and ran for the weekend. To bad I missed it hitting 1.3199, cause I would have loved an extra 11 pips.

Have a great weekend! I am going to study.

Nanette
What was the signal? Was it a TC upwards at 1600?
-Chandra
  • #1,672
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:05pm Mar 2, 2007 5:05pm
Hi Guy,

Here is a screenshot of what I got on the EUR/USD. It has breached a trend line that it has tested 4 times. It has come back up to test that trend line. Now since the GBP has gone through the 89SMA wouldn't you think the Euro would follow suit, or is my thinking wrong. Any comments would be appreciated.
Attached Image
  • #1,673
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:10pm Mar 2, 2007 5:10pm
Quoting mandoaddam
any one could help me here and give me his opinion on the direction of GBP/JPY
Here is my 2 cents.
As Phillip said in his today's MP3 while talking about another pair, the price in GBPJPY pair below 8 MA and so, we are in strong down trend. I take any down signals when the price plls back to 8MA. There is nothing encouraging me to think of Longs, yet.
-Chandra
  • #1,674
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:12pm Mar 2, 2007 5:12pm
Hello Phillip
I just joined the forex Factory site and read your 4Hour MSCD article.
I will try to set it up your way and watch it in real time for a while.
It is great to see someone put souch effort into it and sharing something that is good.
  • #1,675
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:27pm Mar 2, 2007 5:27pm
Quoting alcastro
Chandra,

I agree with your analysis, it was a cuasi bounce from zero line in MACD, and price was bouncing from the 21 MA and following the trend.But I am little confused with your profit targets. Which were the high and low points for your fib lines?
Febi Hi: 2259 on 8:00 candle of March 2nd.
Feb Low: 2167 on 20:00 candle of Feb 27th.
I hope I am right.
-Chandra
  • #1,676
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:31pm Mar 2, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting alcastro
O'zeeke,

Trading news is a very risky game. Many brokers play dirty tricks on their clients at the time of the news: one of them is what happened to you: freeze the trade for a while: another one is increase the spread. Check Oanda for this. Their spread may go up to 20!!! As a matter of fact, recently, by mistake , they increased the spread to 200 in the cable for the NFP(when they were increasing it to 20). Obviously many tradrs were burned. Oanda returned the losses to the traders....but it shows you the dirty tricks this guys have in their pocket. Other trick brokers play is "straddle hunting". They move the price up and down violently before news to get the stops that the straddlers have placed. so.....beware when you are playing the news. It may be a russian roulette!!!
Oh! O'zeeke!.... what a nice advise!!!.. Thank you.
-Chandra.
  • #1,677
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:39pm Mar 2, 2007 5:39pm
Quoting alcastro
Here is what I will be watching at the beginning of next week:

Euro/US:
Will wait for a retracement in the 4hr chart.
The 1hr chart already started it in the price (with dojis and hangmans), and MACD is showing a TC pattern.
May turn into a TC long or RT.

Cable:
Possible RB in 4hr chart (counter-trend)
The price in 1hr is very close tothe 8MA, and since it is a counter-trend may go up to the 21 before bouncing back....hmmm...I will saty out for the moment.
If the 4hr shows a TC to the short side, will jump in.

Us/Cad:
Nothing yet.

Any thoughts/comments/critics? As always, the good, the bad, and the ugly arer welcome.
Good analysis in a netshell.
And a warning, before anybody try to call him "UGLY" see his picture and those big arms.
-Chandra
  • #1,678
  • Mar 2, 2007 5:44pm Mar 2, 2007 5:44pm
Anyone have any idea why this strategy seems to only work well with the Eur/USD and GBP/USD? Could it work with other pairs but just hasn't been extensively tested?
{Link Removed}
  • #1,679
  • Edited 6:10pm Mar 2, 2007 5:51pm | Edited 6:10pm
I am new to the system. I have read and re-read the docs several times, listen to the audios, learned from your postings and I'm getting the hang of it. I have lost money just in mini lots to test drive the system live.

I have not have any success with 1H so I am sticking to the 4H system and setting my alarms 1 hour before the new 4H candle starts to look for opportunities. This works very well with my trading style. I am trading gbp/usd,eur/usd,usd/jpy,usd/cad & gbp/jpy with this system. I will not trade on counter trend but will add to my position on EMA21 pull back or continuation.

I like this system because you can catch pips or trend earlier compared to EMA cross systems.

My 1st 4H trade on RB long eur/usd @ 1.3184 +20 pips and closed it early because of the weekend.

Happy trading!
  • #1,680
  • Mar 2, 2007 6:09pm Mar 2, 2007 6:09pm
Quoting alcastro
Here is what I will be watching at the beginning of next week:

Euro/US:
Will wait for a retracement in the 4hr chart.
The 1hr chart already started it in the price (with dojis and hangmans), and MACD is showing a TC pattern.
May turn into a TC long or RT.

Cable:
Possible RB in 4hr chart (counter-trend)
The price in 1hr is very close tothe 8MA, and since it is a counter-trend may go up to the 21 before bouncing back....hmmm...I will saty out for the moment.
If the 4hr shows a TC to the short side, will jump in.

Us/Cad:
Nothing yet.

Any thoughts/comments/critics? As always, the good, the bad, and the ugly arer welcome.
Please forget about all that I said about the Euro?usd. I was looking at the Euro/GBP chart!!!! I guess it has been a long week!!!!

EURO/US:
I don't see an immediate trade here. If somebody is in the long trade generated by the RB two candle ago, enjoy the ride. I am not chasing it.
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