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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #1,641
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:00pm Mar 2, 2007 2:00pm
Quoting Pipsi cola
Golfer,
good job executing "head&shoulders" figure and keeping the position open. i didn't go for the "overnight bonus" (swap) and closed my short gbp/usd position with +29 pips last night.

Woju2,
you might wanna hold on to your opened EUR/USD long and see how this round bottom develops. if it comes out nice and smooth the long signal will be given with the profit target around 1.3230. then you could exit breakeven.

P.S. i also see MACD divergence on USD/JPY - last moment to enter long. the same with EUR/JPY. good eye 5forMe!
Wawh,
some body HAS to talk about this MACD diveregence in USD/JPY and EUR/JPY for the benefit of our next week trading and who is better than you, Phillip!
Thanks in advance for a nice MP3 on this.
Chandra.
  • #1,642
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:01pm Mar 2, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting Pipsi cola
Golfer,
good job executing "head&shoulders" figure and keeping the position open. i didn't go for the "overnight bonus" (swap) and closed my short gbp/usd position with +29 pips last night.

Woju2,
you might wanna hold on to your opened EUR/USD long and see how this round bottom develops. if it comes out nice and smooth the long signal will be given with the profit target around 1.3230. then you could exit breakeven.

P.S. i also see MACD divergence on USD/JPY - last moment to enter long. the same with EUR/JPY. good eye 5forMe!
great observations on div!
Thanks.
-Chandra.
  • #1,643
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:05pm Mar 2, 2007 2:05pm
Yahoo- I made 22 on the Euro.

Reasons to enter Round bottom, trendline up high, price 1.3200, I was prepared for it to stop at 1.3200, but ready in case it didn't.

Entry 1.3167
st 1.3140
tp 1.3200

I had to leave my computer to take care of my 5 sons (ages 9mos to 9 years)
Price went up to 1.3199 and retraced back to 1.3188 which is where I took my pips and ran for the weekend. To bad I missed it hitting 1.3199, cause I would have loved an extra 11 pips.

Have a great weekend! I am going to study.

Nanette
  • #1,644
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:25pm Mar 2, 2007 2:25pm
I got out with about 22 on the Euro$. Just a note here: I use FXDD and their 4 hr candles complete at 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000, and 0000: Central Standard Time USA. The good thing about this is that the 0800 candle closes 30 minutes after the major eco news is put out like the CPI, PPI, Employment #s, etc. I'm just thinking out loud here but this may give FXDD's charts a 'quicker response time' for market direction because witihin 30 minutes of major news, the market usually finds its way..I may be wrong..aye?
  • #1,645
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:25pm Mar 2, 2007 2:25pm
Quoting tamkras
Hi Chandra, this is the complete picture with the trendline. There are 5 points. We already know that it is broken. Yours, Tamkras.
I see it now, Tamkras. Thank you.
-Chandra
  • #1,646
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:26pm Mar 2, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting woju2
Hi!

Will you take a valid signal at 15 (GMT)? Its Friday and I think its too late. Any comments?

Thanks

Woju2
Woju2,
Icould not get it. What market and what signal U R refering to here? Pl. clarify.
Thank.
-Chandra.
  • #1,647
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:27pm Mar 2, 2007 2:27pm
Quoting tamkras
I will re-post some charts and explanations over the weekend. By the way, when I am back at home on Sunday, I am a buyer of usd/jpy to confirm my outlook. Yours, Tamara (Tamkras)
Tamara,

I am looking forward to your charts and explanations. They are always very helpful
  • #1,648
  • Edited 4:21pm Mar 2, 2007 2:30pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting 5forMe
Yahoo- I made 22 on the Euro.

Reasons to enter Round bottom, trendline up high, price 1.3200, I was prepared for it to stop at 1.3200, but ready in case it didn't.

Entry 1.3167
st 1.3140
tp 1.3200

I had to leave my computer to take care of my 5 sons (ages 9mos to 9 years)
Price went up to 1.3199 and retraced back to 1.3188 which is where I took my pips and ran for the weekend. To bad I missed it hitting 1.3199, cause I would have loved an extra 11 pips.

Have a great weekend! I am going to study.

Nanette
Picture perfect trade in my book. RB and bounce off the 89 sma with the trend. Why can't they all be like this. I entered at 1.3152 (bounce of the 89 sma). S/L below the 89sma and trend line on the 4 hour 1.3122. Exited 50% at the 21 ema (4 hr) 1.3192. Move 50% to B/E. Going againt the rules and holding over the weekend.



Great trade 5forme.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,649
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:39pm Mar 2, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting Palmer
EURUSD:

MACD is forming bullish divergence on the 1hr and the 4hr is trying to form a green MACD bar at the RB. There's an interest rate statement out this morning so be careful...
The interest rate did did not make a dent on this divergence and RB.

I have a theory I learned some where else about these news and reports coming out every other day.
60 seconds before the report comes turn off the stop loss and bring the stop loss back 60 seconds or 120 seconds or 180 seconds after the news release.

One more thing about the news releases. It is not the release of news that effects the market. It is the difference between the expected figures and the actual figures released (expected value and the actual value) that shakes the market. The higher the differece the higher the surprise and the higher the market jolt.
-Chandra
  • #1,650
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:53pm Mar 2, 2007 2:53pm
Yup I agree, the unexpected stuff creates the spikes. I'll let the news traders trade the news. The Bernanke talk was just talk ...nothing official. It was a good week with Phil's method. I'm just referring to the Eur$ since that's where I spend the majority of my 'time'...the most expensive commodity...

Time to rest....
  • #1,651
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:06pm Mar 2, 2007 3:06pm
Quoting ramshackle
hi, is there a short signal for U/C now? MACD turned above zero and after 3 bars it moved below zero .8 and 21 ema is quite near as resistance. please guide. thanks
Quoting ramshackle
hi, is there a short signal for U/C now? MACD turned above zero and after 3 bars it moved below zero .8 and 21 ema is quite near as resistance. please guide. thanks
I think so. Should have sold at the open price of 16:00 candle at 1.2195.
(What were I doing??) Again, it is Friday....
-Chandra.
  • #1,652
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:22pm Mar 2, 2007 3:22pm
Quoting Chandra
I think so. Should have sold at the open price of 16:00 candle at 1.2195.
(What were I doing??) Again, it is Friday....
-Chandra.

Got to love those trend trades with the 89 sma on the 4 hour.

(same here, Chardra, what the heck was I doing. )

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #1,653
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:23pm Mar 2, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting Palmer
Did ya get in people??? I was in a meeting all morning but I got in on the RB on the 4hr. I've got about 15 locked in cause I've got to leave again but I'll close it out before the market closes either way.

ajaso: There's a color MACD indicator posted in the thread somewhere. CLick on the paperclip icon for this thread an it'll be easy to find....

Hi Palmer, how do you display two rsi's in the same window as you do? I havnt been able to do that on mine. Thanks for your help
  • #1,654
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:23pm Mar 2, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting Golfer
My only conerns are:
1. Too late on a Friday
2. Seems like you would need a big SL = 30+pips making the RR not worth it.

However, the trade is there for the taking in line with the trend.
Personally I would give it a skip.

Willem
Hello Golfer,
Here is my ake on this trade refered by Ramesh:

He is asking :

hi, is there a short signal for U/C now? MACD turned above zero and after 3 bars it moved below zero .8 and 21 ema is quite near as resistance. please guide. thanks"

He is refering to USDCHF at 12:00 on today Friday 3/22007.

It is not a bad trade as follows:
Short at the opening of 1600 candle at/around 2195 (entry - short).
SL at 21 MA @ 2221 - 26 pips loss.
TP1 at 78.6% febi @ 2165 - 30 pip gain.(price level barrier at 2150 is there).
R:R is greater than 1.
TP2 at 100% febi at 2138 - 57 pips gain.

Am I missing anything except it is Friday of course
Now (21:20:58 GMT) the price has hit the TP1. price is 2163 and still crawling down in Friday siasta.
Please comment.
-Chandra
  • #1,655
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:35pm Mar 2, 2007 3:35pm
Chandra,

This may be part of the answer to your question. There is a head and shoulders formation on the day chart. Its been toying with the idea of coming down to eventually to the 1.1873 for awhile now, and she is close to the big drop.

Jim
Attached Image
  • #1,656
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:37pm Mar 2, 2007 3:37pm
Quoting Chandra
The interest rate did did not make a dent on this divergence and RB.

I have a theory I learned some where else about these news and reports coming out every other day.
60 seconds before the report comes turn off the stop loss and bring the stop loss back 60 seconds or 120 seconds or 180 seconds after the news release.

One more thing about the news releases. It is not the release of news that effects the market. It is the difference between the expected figures and the actual figures released (expected value and the actual value) that shakes the market. The higher the differece the higher the surprise and the higher the market jolt.
-Chandra
Hi Chandra, I tried that just once on the gbp interest rate announcment and fxcm made me "wait for dealers answer" for 15 min. Yes for 15 min i was locked out waiting for their answer. i fortunately made a couple of pips by the time it click in. i now have a new broker. thanks Chandra for all your helpful info
  • #1,657
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:37pm Mar 2, 2007 3:37pm
Sorry, heres the better screenshot for that last post.
Attached Image
  • #1,658
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:38pm Mar 2, 2007 3:38pm
any one could help me here and give me his opinion on the direction of GBP/JPY
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #1,659
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:43pm Mar 2, 2007 3:43pm
These 2 pairs 99% of the time are identical in the opposite direction. I have used them to confirm eachother.

Just food for thought.

J
  • #1,660
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:43pm Mar 2, 2007 3:43pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Some comments about today.

Remember it is Friday so any trade should be pocket money for the weekend.

Have I nice weekend
Before I go back and listen to your Friday MP3 second time, let me thank you for a real sum-up of the day's event. It is worth listening second time. It has told everything we were thinking of and solved every doubt we carried along during the day

Your sum up of each pair is great. We would love to have an MP3 end of each day, middle of the day summerizing things similar to this. (we don't compalain if it is going to be every hour of the trading day, thoughhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif).

One thing to be emphasized is 'PRICE TO COME BACK TO 21 BEFORE ENTERING). How many milloins of losing trades in this whole world would have saved if this rule was followed!!)

Thanks Phillip, you are more effective now than before because we are better tuned to understand you.
Have a great weeked ( I see the sleeping lion has got up and is looking for hunting).
-Chandra.
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