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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #17,741
  • Nov 6, 2008 2:11pm Nov 6, 2008 2:11pm
Quoting baco75
Hey,
does anyone know what that gap I see on the MIG graph is?? I have been away all day and when I came back I saw that scary gap! I had never seen it before! Is it due to something that went wrong with the platform, some news that came out or what? Thank you for any interpretation....
hey baco,

I was all day away and now after opening my MT4 I see the same gap like you (using MIG). Can anybody comment this.That's something i haven't seen before during a day.Anyway,same gap is on GBPUSD graph.

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  • #17,742
  • Nov 6, 2008 2:24pm Nov 6, 2008 2:24pm
triangle coming up for gbpusd???

intersting to see where this goes...
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Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #17,743
  • Nov 6, 2008 3:39pm Nov 6, 2008 3:39pm
Hello i have been watching this strategy for about a year now and recently decided to start practicing as i want to learn market rythm. Was this a valid setup on the usd/chf?
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  • #17,744
  • Nov 6, 2008 4:33pm Nov 6, 2008 4:33pm
Quoting jdogg4000
Hello i have been watching this strategy for about a year now and recently decided to start practicing as i want to learn market rythm. Was this a valid setup on the usd/chf?
im pretty sure it is, i took it on the second green thing on the macd, the little red candle after the bigger green candle coming back through the 21ema...
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #17,745
  • Edited 11:00pm Nov 6, 2008 10:28pm | Edited 11:00pm
USDJPY has already going around with the 89SMA(blue color)for a long time,i think we should take attention to it. Anyone who knows what to do for the next step,can you please reply?..thanks guys!
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  • #17,746
  • Nov 7, 2008 3:21am Nov 7, 2008 3:21am
we need a strong NFP to show us the way
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  • #17,747
  • Nov 7, 2008 6:00am Nov 7, 2008 6:00am
Quoting bshadroo
we need a strong NFP to show us the way
hmm i had my trend lines a bit different and it showed a nice bounce off the upper trend line... seems to be in the channel with possible triangle... btw im a total novice so take this with a grain of sand
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Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #17,748
  • Nov 7, 2008 6:07am Nov 7, 2008 6:07am
Quoting booyu
USDJPY has already going around with the 89SMA(blue color)for a long time,i think we should take attention to it. Anyone who knows what to do for the next step,can you please reply?..thanks guys!
{think you should check your datafeef settings, I have different candle closings, think the other guys here have the same}

i see USDJPY in a sideways phase, it couldn't break to the upside and is below the 89SMA
the last candle was a Doji and the MACD seems to create a TC- instead a RB

Till
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  • #17,749
  • Nov 7, 2008 9:09am Nov 7, 2008 9:09am
stop loss 1.2835 target 1.2696
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{Promotion Removed}
  • #17,750
  • Nov 7, 2008 9:37am Nov 7, 2008 9:37am
wasnt this a good TC?
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  • #17,751
  • Nov 7, 2008 9:48am Nov 7, 2008 9:48am
20:30 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifNon-Farm Employment Change
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -240K
-200K-284Khttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
20:30 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifUnemployment Rate
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 6.5%
6.3%6.1%
{Promotion Removed}
  • #17,752
  • Nov 7, 2008 10:20am Nov 7, 2008 10:20am
Quoting mr.krai
20:30 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifNon-Farm Employment Change
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif -240K
-200K-284Khttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...us_revised.gif
20:30 USDhttp://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gifUnemployment Rate
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 6.5%
6.3%6.1%
there is a meeting in europe
  • #17,753
  • Nov 7, 2008 10:22am Nov 7, 2008 10:22am
Quoting bshadroo
wasnt this a good TC?
The MACD was OK but the size of the signal candle and the proximity to the lower trend line meant the risk was too high for me.

Also, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs have been all over the place today - no defined trend.
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James The Beekeeper
  • #17,754
  • Nov 7, 2008 10:58am Nov 7, 2008 10:58am
Quoting bshadroo
wasnt this a good TC?
Agree with you there. A good setup w/nice candle, maybe it was the NFP causing the uncertainty
  • #17,755
  • Nov 7, 2008 11:08am Nov 7, 2008 11:08am
Quoting bshadroo
wasnt this a good TC?
Hi, people. It seems to me that it was a nice TC (and SL could be made smaller either by division to 2 sublots or waiting for a retracement). The only thing was NFP - it might be making the croud more nervous so unexpected moves become more probable.

I passed this TC (already had a loss on NFP on a rather nice TC ).
By the way, if one entered with SL divided into 2 positions (60+30)/2, it would have been a loss, but if one entered on say 50% retracement (~1.2780) with SL over the high of signal bar (~50 pips), SL wouldn't be hit and now position would be in small profit.

Maybe Phillip will comment the situation (though he already spoke about NFP for several times).
  • #17,756
  • Nov 7, 2008 12:43pm Nov 7, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting Yorik
Hi, people. It seems to me that it was a nice TC (and SL could be made smaller either by division to 2 sublots or waiting for a retracement). The only thing was NFP - it might be making the croud more nervous so unexpected moves become more probable.

I passed this TC (already had a loss on NFP on a rather nice TC ).
By the way, if one entered with SL divided into 2 positions (60+30)/2, it would have been a loss, but if one entered on say 50% retracement (~1.2780) with SL over the high of signal bar (~50 pips), SL wouldn't be hit and now position would be in small profit.

Maybe Phillip will comment the situation (though he already spoke about NFP for several times).
Stoploss was just too much to 89sma. NFP days I dont trade. (If I have an open position I will close before the news). Maybe on the 1min I will take on a microlot just to get the old heart pumping.
Have a nice weekend.
  • #17,757
  • Nov 7, 2008 12:46pm Nov 7, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting bshadroo
we need a strong NFP to show us the way
Hi bshadroo, can you please explain what NFP stands for and how you manage to draw arrows on MT4 for commenting your graphs? Thank you!!
..I think your trendlines are correct...we should wait for a nice triangle breakout but today is not a good day for trading (end of week, news coming out late in the evening..). We shall wait for monday morning..have a nice weekend!
  • #17,758
  • Edited 1:15am Nov 8, 2008 12:52am | Edited 1:15am
about theTC signal in eu,every body is speaking about the NFP,but the signal was about 1hour after NFP,i remember a "tail" trade 1hour after NFP by phillip(few months ago) and i think its is no problem to trade after news (specially if it is 1hour after) when the market find its direction.
friday's TC was also a nice TC with the tails to the 89 and i think NFP was not the reason why this didnt work ,as i told maybe europe meeting caused that huge up move.
edit:i think the trade was at 2008.02.01,the below picture,i hope im not wrong
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  • #17,759
  • Nov 8, 2008 3:23am Nov 8, 2008 3:23am
Quoting bshadroo
about theTC signal in eu,every body is speaking about the NFP,but the signal was about 1hour after NFP,i remember a "tail" trade 1hour after NFP by phillip(few months ago) and i think its is no problem to trade after news (specially if it is 1hour after) when the market find its direction.
friday's TC was also a nice TC with the tails to the 89 and i think NFP was not the reason why this didnt work ,as i told maybe europe meeting caused that huge up move.
edit:i think the trade was at 2008.02.01,the below picture,i hope im not wrong
I am interested in others views on this too.

I avoid trading any currency on significant news for an hour or two before and after the news, not for the whole day.

In addition, I would like to understand a little more about splitting a trade to reduce the average SL. e.g. if the SL would normally be 60pips then I understand that two trades with a 30 and 60 pip SL gives an average of 45. However, shouldn't the larger of the SL's always be the high/low of the signal candle? i.e. for the above example a 30 and a 50 pip SL would not be correct. So, if the high of the signal candle is, say, 110 pips away then there is no way with two trades to average that down to below 50 pips.

Am I correct in this?
James The Beekeeper
  • #17,760
  • Nov 8, 2008 12:24pm Nov 8, 2008 12:24pm
Quoting edeyj999
I am interested in others views on this too.

I avoid trading any currency on significant news for an hour or two before and after the news, not for the whole day.

In addition, I would like to understand a little more about splitting a trade to reduce the average SL. e.g. if the SL would normally be 60pips then I understand that two trades with a 30 and 60 pip SL gives an average of 45. However, shouldn't the larger of the SL's always be the high/low of the signal candle? i.e. for the above example a 30 and a 50 pip SL would not be correct. So, if the high of the signal candle is, say, 110 pips away then there is no way with two trades to average that down to below 50 pips.

Am I correct...
Yes you are correct. But there are many different ways in doing a stoploss according to each traders risk profile. Do some backtesting and see how many TC signals were given this year and how many of the next candle did retrace beyond the 75% of the signal candle. I am sure that if you trade TC candles and put the stoploss just beyond the 75% retracement you will be more right then wrong. You can enter on a 50% retracement and reduce you stoploss like that as well. This is just 2 ways to do stoplosses. I dont go deep into stoplosses as that differs from trader to trader because of the risk profile and agressiveness of each individual. You got to analyse each TC trade over a period of time(at least 100 trades) and work out a stoploss that will give you the edge. a Save way is the signal candle top or bottom but that means some sitting out on huge candles. Go and analyse huge TC candles and see what was the retracements on the next candles and work out a retracement entry that will give you the edge. Yet another way etc....etc....
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