AUD/USD

Damn I got out way too early on that dive after the news.

Oh well.

I closed just on news time. 150 pips, can't complain. Don't like to trade risk. Happy to trade fear though LOL. Took a Euro short too, and that horse came in as well.

There's always another train leaving the station sometime soon.

Think the drinks must be on Dutchie? He picked it right. 75bp.

Well Im only a newbie so I hope I can hitch a ride on those trains often!


I got 9 pips by the way, hehe.

Better than a kick in the ass I suppose.


Any tips would be appreciated Jade, always happy to listen to a pro.

LOL you funny mate.

Not a pro, just a newbie myself, well a few months in the fx saddle, and a stack of good TA under my belt. Working on the discipline.

Jade, I am waiting for it to break 6600 and I think it could make a run for 6400 if it does.


What is your professional opinion hehe

*ahem* *clearing throat* my professional opinion?

hold on, got the crystal ball here somewhere

ummm..... wait till you see some clear resistance candles on the 1M & 5M charts... often on a bull run it can retest resistance a second or third time, so don't jump on too soon (being stopped out regularly is what kills your account) I use the 15M chart for confirmation

then I check my oscillator and MACD to see what is happening, whether it has support or not, if it does, I stay out (if looking to short).

remember that the Europeans are prone to supporting their own currencies (except when they are in the mood to sell, in which case, prepare for a bloodbath)

many traders like trend trading, but the fx monkey is a little more complex than that - still, if you like to only trade with the trend, then wait, patience and discipline. Don't trade risk. Wait for confirmation.

The other thing I like to do is to watch the USDCHF and USDJPY trade, UJ often gives clues about the strength of a Euro bull run, and the candles for the swissy tell you if the USD is going up, down or at resistance/support.

One more thing, I am a big fan of watching the candle wicks. Tweezer wicks and tri-tips, any collection of wicks that line up together and through which you can draw a straight line usually get me excited. Price often moves in the opposite direction of the wick (because this signifies serious rejection).

I am waiting for a break of 0,7000 resistance to take a long position. Target ~ 150 pips.

chart: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Eo1KMMn77O...h/ta_audus.png

Things are a bit edgy huh? They're expecting bad numbers, but wondering if the data may be better than the dismal forecasts.

My outlook at present for the AUD is some consolidation on the right shoulder for the next several days (maybe a week - see daily chart), followed by a breakout to the upside - we are in fact in pretty good shape and the economic data should keep improving after this week's news is out of the way.

What it does in the next hour is anyone's guess. But AUD has been showing very strong support even in the midst of other currency downtrends. Also becoming a tad dangerous territory due to spikes and shifts in balance EUR/AUD.

p.s. I take it someone stuffed up the calendar times... data is already out... but my international clock is saying it arrived an hour early.

Surprise 75bp cut, Aussie rallies 3.7%. Surprise jobs gain, 44k over estimates, Aussie falls. I feel badly for any fundamentalists/non-contrarians.

Is that a bearish descending triangle forming on the 15 min and 1 hour chart?

I have a real dislike of using pattern formations to pick direction. What I see on the chart at present is the AUD putting in a base. The AUD has been undergoing some interesting changes in recent times. It has been the favoured major for risk aversion hedging (buying up and then shorting to suit to cover other trades), however it has (it seems) ceased to behave with it's usual shorting fervour, finding good support in places where you might think it wouldn't.

I prefer to use candles and oscillators to locate support/resistance because these are dynamic and fluid, better reflect the underlying currents. Chart patterns as a predictor are not always that reliable, especially in a highly changeable market such as this one.

Fx is a razor blade - unless you monitor the razor's edge closely (i.e. the 1M and 5M charts)... all the best pattern formations in the world will not tell you what you most want to know. Things can set up for a standard pattern and then not follow through, for any one of a myriad of reasons... all of which become evident on the razor's edge.

Good thoughts Jade.


Id love to know how you apply your indicators, and what signals you look for. I am a dunce when it comes to them, am concentrating on pivot points, fibs and what not mostly.


If you have MSN feel free to add me.

heightdown AT ye olde` hotmail

you can say that again. I got caught by that 3.7% rally. Ouch. Now I'm short NZD

Nothing makes a lot of sense lately... the AUD gains on news of a rate cut, goes short on good economic news, and cable goes on a long bender on the strength of really bad news. Can hardly wait for the ECB rate cut.... picking that one will be impossible.

Maybe somone should be handing out the meds. They are all looking a bit unstable at present.

Man, I was right.

As soon as it broke the support base of the triangle it went south.


And I didnt go go short.

Kicking myself.

who wants to sell me some aussie I am a buyer

Sorry holding mine for now.

I have high hopes

Hey Steelhead, are you carrying a s/l w/ your buy or you just riding? I had a s/l of .6680, but was able to remove it right before it broke.......advise would be helpful.

I havent bought yet not right time not right price.

I bought a little early on my 1st lot, then bought again @ .6682. Kinda leary w/ the price of gold still not jumping, but looks too undersold.