I was looking at a similar long in cable at 1.5990. I passed I see decent resistance at 1.6035-1.6055. I would be careful on this trade. I see strenghth in the dollar index.
[font=Times New Roman][size=3]The first is to me it seems knowing when not to enter at a certain level is just as important as identifying the levels. BRV for example obviously states he does not enter on all the levels. The most important seems to be if there has been a retrace or consolidation just before the level- but other then this, can I ask anyone out there what would make you not enter at a previously identified strong level? How important is the price direction of; (closely correlated) pairs, indices, oil or gold or if any of the above are approaching strong S/R as to if you take the trade? Are you looking at a series of other charts at the same time to help determine...
Ignored
Hi there, in regards to your question, I do the following usually:
-determine a macro strategy, or, in general, where price might be headed based on OVERALL conditions of the market.
-what key indications are telling me otherwise for the day. For example, today, the Japanese market was rallying heavily as I was planning for the day. This conflicted with my macro outlook.
When I see a move like that, I know it can lead to further upside on EUR/USD, and other related pairs, etc., so I am very careful in taking shorts prematurely, and I might want to try to go long on some of these if I see breakouts on key areas. I am likely to wait until price seems very overextended (eg, go for the higher levels for shorts). A good example of a possible long today on EUR/USD would have been a breakout of the 1.2670 area upside. When a key resistance area like that gets busted it usually means decent continuation to the upside.
The idea is to wait until all factors tell you "its time" and go for the trades in the direction of your macro approach, and hold onto them. In the meantime however, like with EUR today, good money could have been made upside on violation of these key ares, with scalps going countertrend for the day. I'll see if I can make a vid better explaining this, but thats the general idea.
I was looking at a similar long in cable at 1.5990. I passed I see decent resistance at 1.6035-1.6055. I would be careful on this trade. I see strenghth in the dollar index.
Ignored
Im out of that trade with only 25 pips, I saw the same in the dollar index
I tried to post on your blog, as a commentary under the trading breaksouts video. In essence, I stated that I viewed the breakout strategy as mutually exclusive from the support & resistance strategy. For example, it's either the price will break through or bounce off the support or resistance levels. Perhaps the best way to reconcile the two diametric philosophies is to enter after the pull-back, which would represent a temporary bounce before the price breaks through the s&r level.
How do you distinguish between a pending break-out vs. a pending bounce off the s&r levels?
Thanks,
Walt
Ignored
Hi Walt, nothing too counterintuitive here, support and resistance is support and resistance, and they can be played either by fading or on breakouts. I know that most of the trades I post here are fades, but alot of my profits come from breakouts as they're such easy trades sometimes.
In terms of distinguishing the two, Im just playing breakouts based on violations of these areas, fading comes upon overextension or with continuation of price trends. I would recommend perhaps digging through examples posted in throughout the thread and seeing similar price patterns that we look at in order to see clear differences between the two.
Nice post BRV in regards to macro outlook and daily conditions. I think it really ties in with patience, too. If you wait for an alignment of 'forces' (long-term fundamental, short-term fundamental, technical), your trades will be much more decisive and profitable. It has really been a problem for me to be patient and actually follow through on this, but I find like you and others in the thread have said, having and writing down a trading plan can drastically help with this.
Im out of that trade with only 25 pips, I saw the same in the dollar index
Ignored
Yeah, in a case like this, the GBPUSD I think was way overextended in terms of movement, and I'd expect consolidation or a retracement down before any further substantial gains.
Hi lafedgar, in a case like this you would want to use the last wave up as a potential to go long on (EG the base made at 1.5990) - not necessarily past activity. Either way I'm a little uncertain of continuation here as it seems price seems to be fatiguing now. I think I would be more inclided to look for a potential breakdown of this area more than anything else.
I was looking at a similar long in cable at 1.5990. I passed I see decent resistance at 1.6035-1.6055. I would be careful on this trade. I see strenghth in the dollar index.
Ignored
I just saw this after I posted. Exactly what I was thinking.
A kind of off topic question. If I understand correctly you are based in the U.S. Do you trade the full London session? If so how does it effect your sleep life outside trading. I ask because I will be moving back to Chicago at the end of April. And I don't see how its possible to miss the London session if one is trading currencies.
How are you buddy? If I may ask I have a question.... I today tried to short EU/USD got burnt .........I still want to short either GBP/USD or EU/USD.......what you deem I should look for before shorting .......is it better to wait till london session tommorow?
Thank you in advance
Best regards
Ignored
Well Banda, I'm trying to answer on behalf of Steve, and please understand that I'm not him.
Today Steve called short at every top. That was the plan.
Steve also said, many times, that the only crystal ball he owns is on the fridge;-).
Today was a typical day showing that Steve doesn't have the ball for real and that we, me, you, the trader itself, has to be the last lonely judge of his trades and of the market sentiment.
Sentiment that was, up to now, opposite to the plan that today Steve gave to us.
This is also what Steve is here for, to teach us to become responsible, thinking, smart, fast and reactive traders.
Hope I wrote it right, and please Steve correct me if u don't agree.
Good luck and kudos to fantasticlovelykind BRV
Max
I would look a little more closely at the 1.5903 level for a new long.
Ignored
ok, i see it. Im going to have it in mind.
today is my first day that i make a post in this trade, but I already have a couple of months following this tread. I really think that if i want to improve in this method I have to participate more in here, and is then only way that other opinion helps me to have a better entries.
thanks
Thank you for the info. I'll check those out. My broker only provides currency charts.
Any of you who use Alpari and Metatrader know how you can get the Dollar Index, DOW and other indexes on the platform? I think I saw in someone else's snapshot that those indexes are available from that broker. Unfortunately, after downloading their platform from their UK and US sites I could not find a way to display those charts.
ok, i see it. Im going to have it in mind.
today is my first day that i make a post in this trade, but I already have a couple of months following this tread. I really think that if i want to improve in this method I have to participate more in here, and is then only way that other opinion helps me to have a better entries.
thanks
Ignored
Don't worry nothing is wrong with your level if you have decent risk mgmt. Its quite possible the bounce from 1.5950 will take price right back up to 1.6000. Just try to think a few steps ahead and a few other possible alternatives
