Fising... journal & Analysis..

Fear, fear and more fear. What little difference a week makes, last week speculators were selling out of fear and now they buying out of fear of missing the move. No need to get caught in the panic, keep things simple. I have put together a trade plan for the Euro USD for the next few hours and possibly day or 2. The key is to let this market come to you; we have some very obvious levels of upside resistance for the Euro and a pullback is on its way. Remember buy at support in an uptrend and sell at resistance in a downtrend. Good luck and happy trading – David Pegler

Here are my predictions for the ranges and biases of
the four major Forex pairs:

* EUR/USD: Looking for prices to move between
1.3525 and 1.3808. The EUR/USD closed up
during today's session. This pair is moving sideways
and has a negative bias at this time.

* USD/JPY: Looking for prices to move between
101.12 and 103.38. The USD/JPY closed up
for today's session to form a doji bar. I'm looking for this
pair to breakout. This pair is moving sideways and
has a negative bias at this time.

* GBP/USD: Looking for this pair to move between
1.6272 and 1.7671. The GBP/USD closed up for
today's session. This pair is moving higher and
has a negative bias at this time.

* USD/CHF: Looking for this pair to move between
1.1238 and 1.1423. The USD/CHF closed down during
today's session to form an inside doji bar. This pair is
moving sideways and has a positive bias at this time.

The correlation between equities and the USD continues only this time it’s been manifested in GBPUSD. The DOW is obviously in a strong downtrend however it looks technically ready for a small retracement. I have identified a few key areas to look out for today and some possible trade plan scenarios.

Inserted Video

hi guys....

waiting...for break out ...a support & resistance....i looking...bias more to down trend...if geppy not break ema200.....wish me luck....just my opinion..

hi guy....

i smell... the high reversal pattern..at H4...good luck

After an historic day in the currency markets it’s not surprising we consolidating. That said consolidation represents hundreds of pips in this market. Today I continue the pound yen analysis and we clearly in a descending wedge however after some clear higher lows it seems very likely that we will test the 2 and 4 hr 21 ema’s if we can break resistance, enjoy the video and good luck.

Inserted Video

UPDATE: In Emergency Statement, G7 Warns Against Yen Rises

Mon, Oct 27 2008, 06:41 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
UPDATE: In Emergency Statement, G7 Warns Against Yen Rises By Takeshi Takeuchi and Takashi Nakamichi
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES


TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven leading nations Monday issued an emergency statement warning investors against pushing up the yen too much, partly in response to Japan's pleas for help.

In the three-sentence statement, the G7 finance leaders singled out the yen, saying its recent "excessive volatility" threatens the global economy and financial system. That was the first time since September 1999 for the group to mention the yen on its own in its statement.

The communique, which was released right after an ad-hoc news conference by Japanese Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa, suggests that not only Japan but also the U.S. and Europe now feel the yen's broad advances have gone too far.

Japan's currency jumped to as high as Y90.87 to the dollar Friday, its strongest level in 13 years. That sharp strengthening in the yen threatens to batter Japanese exports at a time when the domestic economy is going through another weak spell.

"We are concerned about the recent excessive volatility in the exchange rate of the yen and its possible adverse implications for economic and financial stability," the statement by the finance ministers and central bank governors of the G7 said. "We continue to monitor markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate."

But currency traders showed only a limited reaction to the statement as they preferred to study its meaning before trading on it.

"Some players had speculated before the market opened that governments may intervene as early as today, so the statement disappointed us because it suggests that authorities are still a few steps away from actually selling the yen," said Hiroshi Maeba, senior dealer at Nomura Securities.

"Under these unusual market conditions, we know that authorities are concerned about the yen's rise because everybody is concerned about it. What we need is an actual intervention," he said.

Indeed, after the dollar rose slightly against the yen on the G7 statement, it dropped nearly a yen later, pushed down by a sharp fall in Japanese share prices. It's now trading around Y93.35.


Warning Has Presaged Action In Past


However, in the past when the G7 highlighted the yen's strength specifically but the currency continued appreciating, that's led to market intervention to sell Japan's currency, either by a few main central banks or by Japan by itself.

For example, in September 1999, after the G7 warned about the yen's strength, Japan's Finance Ministry and the Bank of Japan repeatedly sold the yen against the dollar.

Nakagawa said the group has acted on Japan's calls for a communique, suggesting the country has a broad backing from its G7 partners: the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., Canada and Italy. The Japanese finance minister himself threatened to "take steps" if needed in the currency markets - the words that were often used in the past to signal that intervention was coming.

Japan has stayed out of the foreign-exchange markets since March 2004, when it ended a massive yen-selling campaign to prevent a strong domestic currency from undermining the nation's then fragile economic recovery.

Currencies of both advanced and developing nations have recently become the most volatile in many years as the U.S.-led global financial crisis intensifies, prompting some countries to intervene in the foreign-exchange markets. On Monday, Australia bought its beleaguered currency to shore it up, while Indonesia and the Philippines did the same for their own currencies.

And the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said Monday it bought HK$7.75 billion worth of U.S. dollars to inject liquidity into the local banking system.

Japan is facing different problems from those counterparts: its trouble is with a soaring domestic currency that could hurt exports.

The yen's rise has come as investors race to pull out of high-risk investments - such as oil or stocks in emerging countries bought with borrowed yen - as they grew more worried about the prospect of a deeper, prolonged global economic recession.

Both the U.S. and European currencies regained some ground versus the yen from late Friday through early Monday. But the market's bullish sentiment toward the yen was little changed, and the G7's latest words did little to hoist Japan's currency.

"Because the G7 statement came completely out of the blue, they are little confused about it," said Yuji Saito, senior currency trader at Societe Generale. "We need a bit more time to understand the context and background" to gauge the possibility of joint intervention.

-By Takeshi Takeuchi and Takashi Nakamichi, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-5255-2929; [email protected], [email protected] (Takashi Mochizuki contribued to this story)

[quote=fising;2306457] UPDATE: In Emergency Statement, G7 Warns Against Yen Rises

Mon, Oct 27 2008, 06:41 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
UPDATE: In Emergency Statement, G7 Warns Against Yen Rises By Takeshi Takeuchi and Takashi Nakamichi
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Salam,hmm superb bear rally for GJ..i count wave D and set TP at Fibo 38.2 or 50.If hard resistance to blow this resistance..maybe will be the end of wave D and continue bear for wave E..if valid, wave E lower should more lowest from wave C lower price at least lower than 138.xx....well we wait,see n trade..

[quote=Team Mapley;2309517] wow...u already count by wave...sorry...my question is...why wave 'D' so long journey frenz...?..just my preview...in price..155.xx &158.75 is hard resistance to geppy pull back..for this week...whatever who know market can go right...

[quote=fising;2309876] Wave D so long ar??hmm look at heavy MA seems like price try to break it..still valid for wave D if can't break 179.xx..if this price are break it so i count for D X 1...but market still have to do expension for wave E..be alert for price action at fibo 50%..hmm just my funny forecast bro..

Today we find Euro Yen in a state of consolidation. However I have identified a few key areas for this pair to break, we have a 4 hr 21 EMA acting as dynamic support along with a 38.2 fib retracement. To the upside a little trend line trap on the 15 minute chart acting as immediate resistance. Hope you enjoy the video, good luck today!! fising..

hi guys....

just my preview... at fav pair...geppy...see...gj in ranging market....today...waiting to break...the support or resistance...price......goodluck..

hi fising,

how are you? gj had moved a lot as per your analysis. hope you made good money. gd luck!

G33maroon

hi G33maroon...hehehe...long time no see...just simple analysis...hope i can improve my trading skill

hehe me too. seeking for perfection..aim to be a great trader . i will visit your journal once in a while. and most the time, i will keep myself in my journal.

wish you today best of luck!

Today I put Euro USD under the microscope. I pay special attention to a symmetrical triangle this currency has created on the 4 hr chart; I have identified a few possible trade plans and targets for today’s London and NY sessions. Pay special attention to the intermarket this week, oil looks very interesting technically and that will affect the USD.

Inserted Video

<-----

It’s all about the intermarket today. Oil and the equity markets are holding above support which means sustainable continuation for the USD seems unlikely. However a good retracement through Asia would put us in a good risk reward situation to entertain further dollar strength. I have put together a few possible scenarios moving forward today

Inserted Video

Wow !!!...


What is the Wisdom Vouching System? The Wisdom Vouching System (WVS) is used to estimate the trading experience of individual FF members. Members vouch for others they feel are experienced and wise traders, and the number of vouchers a member has can be determined by an icon on their posts and member profile. For example, a member with one voucher will display http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/1kt.gif, a member with two vouchers will display http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/2kt.gif, and so on up to eleven where they’ll display http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif. The integrity of the WVS is maintained by only allowing members with four or more vouchers to vouch for others. That means every vouch granted comes from a trader who is already considered experienced and wise by their FF peers.

hehehe....i smell major breakout....today...

hi guys....

just personal preview at h4 chart...see Geppy...wanna complete retracement...so this time...major trend take over...wish me luck..

my planning... Sell limit at 153.xx & 152.xx
Stop loss 155.25 TP 146.xx