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No Brainer Trades

  • #5,161
  • Nov 4, 2008 9:27am Nov 4, 2008 9:27am
The edge on that USDJPY short have been greatly reduced due to the Dax blasting through very minor resistance. However, S&P is still holding its minor resistance. I will keep the trade open but its lost its luster
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  • #5,162
  • Nov 4, 2008 9:29am Nov 4, 2008 9:29am
this is my first post with a possible entry point. Im new with this method by this what I think. I think two possibilities are possible
Im going to entry short in the area of 99.65, but watching very close the price action in case of a possible break of that point. Or...
If the price break the area 99.25 Im short too.
That is what I think guerrillawar.
Sorry for my english is not very good
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  • #5,163
  • Edited 10:37am Nov 4, 2008 9:33am | Edited 10:37am
Quoting dorellino
Guys, this eur is going up, and as usual when the retail market is starting to sell it, it will go up even further. So I think I'm a buyer till we know something abaut an election that should happen somewhere west of europe
Good luck and thank to our belovedsuperbmesmerizing Steve
It just hit 2.900. Looks like it is is going to break through the resistance in that area.


...ad continues up to 1.300
  • #5,164
  • Nov 4, 2008 11:22am Nov 4, 2008 11:22am
I have put on a short here in aud/usd at 7005. Stop 7050. Anyone have a different take on this stance please illustarte with charts.
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  • #5,165
  • Nov 4, 2008 11:53am Nov 4, 2008 11:53am
Quoting Guerrillawar
I have put on a short here in aud/usd at 7005. Stop 7050. Anyone have a different take on this stance please illustarte with charts.
It looks like it never hit your short level .. this is one of my biggest problems as far as exactly where to put an order as it is a double edged sword sometimes ... a) ensure you get in and then you wait while it takes another 20 or so pips to reverse as hoped or b) set the perfect entry level and then it reverses just before it hits ...

just part of the job
  • #5,166
  • Nov 4, 2008 11:59am Nov 4, 2008 11:59am
Aud/usd appears to be slowly going well. Target: 6940
1.Upon reaching target 1 take profts on 1/2 or position.
2.Tighten stop to breakeven.
3. Target for last 1/2 of position 6850
  • #5,167
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:01pm Nov 4, 2008 12:01pm
Aud/usd got as high as 7013 at 17:15 GMT on my platform
  • #5,168
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:12pm Nov 4, 2008 12:12pm
Any one have a take on the dollar index. I see it at a really nice short term support level at 84.50. Spot gold look set to test 748. All in all probably some nice selling opportunities in Eur,Gbp,Aud vs the dollar
  • #5,169
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:13pm Nov 4, 2008 12:13pm
Quoting Guerrillawar
Aud/usd got as high as 7013 at 17:15 GMT on my platform
Yep.... my mistake - somehow I got my line wrong on my chart by 20 pips.

Retiring for the day after that !
  • #5,170
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:30pm Nov 4, 2008 12:30pm
Quoting ernesto
Hi BRV,
regarding stop loss / take profit management of trades I personally started now with the following setup... I split my risk capital of the position I enter into 3 different trades as follows

Initial SL for all 3 positions: ~40 pips
Target Trade 1 (30% of risk): ~35 pips
- when reaching the target of Trade 1 I close this trade
- in addition I change the stop loss of Trade 2+3 to ~ 14 pips
- this way I have profit/loss of zero if the trade goes against me but still
leave room for the other 2 trades to develop
Target Trade 2 (40% of risk): ~90 pips
- when reaching the target of Trade 2 I close this trade
- in addition I change the stop loss of Trade 3 to break even making it
a free ride
Target...
Hi there, I think as you get more comfortable you can let positions run a little longer in general withough the need to scapl for profits early on, and in fact I would recommend trying to wean your way into doing that after a little while.

Also you want to be careful not to snub any positions too early (with a close sl), but if what you have been doing is working based for your particular taste, thats the most important thing. I have recommended partial many times now because many traders tend to develop much faster taking partial than holding on for the ride, especially in the beginning.

At the end of the day your risk/reward is all that matters and as long as its in a favorable position (2:1, 3:1, I even take 1:1 sometimes if its high probability). I think in terms of staying in the trade it can be very tough to hang on sometimes but ultimately the ones that you let run and end up taking full profit on are the ones that really end up kicking in the end and jacking up your account. What I do is get into the mentality that "I cant" take partial on it, and hang in there until my take profit gets hit. With good entries you can develop an awesome system around this if done consistently.
  • #5,171
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:35pm Nov 4, 2008 12:35pm
Quoting Barak's pip
Hi BRV ,

your insights are surelly are the best I've ever read over my trading career , and as I keep reading your posts I keep getting better as a trader .

I have a few questions :

- you speek in this post on focussing on what can go wrong rather on what can go right , my question concerning this , is how do you balance it , how you are not getting too passimist in a way that you eventually won't take any trade on one hand , and not get too optimmistic so you end up taking any trade?

- you speek a lot on taking only the best trades , I will try answer to my self and correct me if I'm wrong -
*only trade with the trend
*take only trades on the s&r of the larger TF-meanning the most obvious...

Hi - when I say 'take the best' I mean we can all take a look at a chart and tell, even with very limited experience, which trades hold a much higher probability for success versus those that dont. They're very obvious sometimes. Just meant to be patient basically, and hold out for these as best as possible.

Trend trading will do you right more than it will do you wrong, but outright reversals, if youre expecting one, can be very probable as well.......just depends on the situation. But for the most part youre safer with the trend, of course.
  • #5,172
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:38pm Nov 4, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting imad
hi BRV
In your example or breakout there are sometimes we have even more than 2 hit on the line and it do not breakout. is there any rules to watch and to follow in order to identify that we might be having a breakout at this point
thanks
the more hits the better, the stronger it gets, the stronger the breakout, generally speaking.


atleast 2 hits with failures, and entry on the breakouts is usually the moment they get violated or a pullback up to the level if missed.
  • #5,173
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:40pm Nov 4, 2008 12:40pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
HMMMM....don't mean to be ugly here but BRV does not have a crystal ball. Neither he or anyone else can tell you what is going to happen next with 100% assurance in a normal market, much less one as illiquid as this one.
I understand the need to \"know\" what the market is going to do next as I use to be in the same frame of mind. We are NOT forecasters, we are traders. We analyze probable moves and then try to capitalize when and if the market moves in our favor. There is nothing wrong with trying to get a sense of sentiment, news factors and possible direction, but the best trader I know once told me, \"you don't have to know where the market is going to be profitable.\" My advice, for what...
yes, I do not have a crystal ball. this is going on my refrigerator.
  • #5,174
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:45pm Nov 4, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting avi007i
Most of the options expire on Saturdays .
So we will have to watch out to see their effects on Mondays ?
Hi avi, you'll see more volatility on Fridays. When monday comes around, everything is already off the books.
  • #5,175
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:46pm Nov 4, 2008 12:46pm
Im going long at 1.6000
any coments?
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  • #5,176
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:46pm Nov 4, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting giraia_br
BRV and Birt.

how do you use Ross stuff? A couple of years ago there was someone teaching only trades like BRV style in anohter forum. By the time i was testing it i found pullback on S&R to be the opossite of Ross teachings. Many times a 123 is broken and a few pips after this break there is a S&R.

i tried to use Ross stuff but after years years stuing it i the R:R was never good.

if both you could give examples.

thanks in advance.
Hi - I just did a lot of learning from him when I was starting out but I honestly dont look at any of his stuff anymore. I just dont really have any use for it anymore. But he makes a lot of very good points, ot just about 123's but all of his other materials.
  • #5,177
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:47pm Nov 4, 2008 12:47pm
Quoting giraia_br
thanks for reply Birdt.

BRV said some pages ago that his style was more Demark and Ross. So i want to know how he uses Ross stuff.

if i understand waht you do, you don't enter with limit orders at the no brainer point, you wait at least for a 123 in the 5 or 1 min. Is it correct?

and you look at the higher tf to see the bias. For example are you waiting today to be the beginning of the 3 so you only take buys. Correct?

best regards.
yeah DeMark same thing.....I did a lot of learning from them and occasionally I will refer to their work but overall not everything.

Its always good to have a bank of strategies in your brain, if you know what I mean.
  • #5,178
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:52pm Nov 4, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting lafedgar
Im going long at 1.6000
any coments?
We've already had 500+ pips long on GBPUSD, it may be a little overplayed by this point. What is your SL and target?
  • #5,179
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:56pm Nov 4, 2008 12:56pm
my stop is 1.5960, and my target is in 1.6090
  • #5,180
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:57pm Nov 4, 2008 12:57pm
How are you buddy? If I may ask I have a question.... I today tried to short EU/USD got burnt .........I still want to short either GBP/USD or EU/USD.......what you deem I should look for before shorting .......is it better to wait till london session tommorow?

Thank you in advance
Best regards
BANDA333
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