Historic Charts: US ISM | Forex Factory

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Historic Charts: US ISM

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 4, 2007 5:22pm Oct 28, 2006 5:54pm | Edited Feb 4, 2007 5:22pm
Jan 3, 2006

Consensus: 57.5
Actual: 54.2

Actual < Consensus: Short USD
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  • #2
  • Oct 28, 2006 5:55pm Oct 28, 2006 5:55pm
Feb 1, 2006

Previous: 54.2
Consensus: 55.5
Actual: 54.8

Actual < Consensus: Short USD
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  • #3
  • Oct 28, 2006 5:56pm Oct 28, 2006 5:56pm
Mar 1, 2006

Previous: 54.8
Consensus: 56
Actual: 56.7

Actual > Consensus: Buy USD
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  • #4
  • Edited Jan 31, 2007 5:00pm Oct 28, 2006 5:57pm | Edited Jan 31, 2007 5:00pm
April 3, 2006

Previous: 56.7
Consensus: 57.5
Actual: 55.2
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  • #5
  • Oct 28, 2006 5:57pm Oct 28, 2006 5:57pm
May 1, 2006

Previous:
Consensus: 55
Actual: 57.3

Actual > Consensus: Buy USD
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  • #6
  • Oct 28, 2006 5:59pm Oct 28, 2006 5:59pm
Jun 1, 2006

Previous: 57.3
Consensus: 56
Actual: 54.4

Actual < Consensus: Short USD
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  • #7
  • Oct 28, 2006 5:59pm Oct 28, 2006 5:59pm
Jul 3, 2006

Previous: 54.4
Consensus: 55
Actual: 53.8

Actual < Concensus: Short USD
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  • #8
  • Edited Jan 31, 2007 5:05pm Oct 28, 2006 6:00pm | Edited Jan 31, 2007 5:05pm
Aug 1, 2006

Previous: 53.8
Consensus: 53.8
Actual: 54.7
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  • #9
  • Oct 28, 2006 6:03pm Oct 28, 2006 6:03pm
Sep 1, 2006

Previous: 53.8
Consensus: 54.5
Actual: 54.5

Actual = Consensus: ???

Anecdote: NFP was also released on this day. NFP was USD Positive and many went Long USD. Perhaps, this ISM was a counter trend against NFP, or traders simply took profit and sold the USD with a dissapointing no ISM improvement.
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  • #10
  • Edited Oct 29, 2006 12:10pm Oct 28, 2006 6:08pm | Edited Oct 29, 2006 12:10pm
Oct 2, 2006

Previous: 54.5
Estimate: 54.5
Actual: 52.9

Actual < Estimate = Short USD.

NOTE: There was rumor that ISM fell below 50 and an hour before the news, USD weakened on all crosses by as much as 140 pips on GBPUSD and 100 pips on EURUSD.
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  • #11
  • Edited Oct 29, 2006 12:19pm Oct 28, 2006 6:14pm | Edited Oct 29, 2006 12:19pm
ISM produces a move (almost very slowly) in the general direction of the Estimate vs Actual result:
Result < Estimate = SELL USD
Result > Estimate = BUY USD

MARKET ORDER
ISM charts show retrace in the 2nd minute before resuming the correct direction. In these situation, a simple MARKET ORDER is great to enter the trade.
Exception: Jun 1, Very minimal retrace was seen staring on the 10th minute lasting to 10:30.
Exception: Sep 1, Retrace started on 3rd minute lasting 20 minutes


STRADDLE
History shows that ISM retraces before moving again. In such a situation, a Straddle with an SL is dangerous. Either set a larger SL or dont straddle ISM at all.
  • #12
  • Nov 2, 2006 2:44pm Nov 2, 2006 2:44pm
Nov 1, 2006

Previous: 52.9
Estimate: 53.0
Actual: 51.2

Actual < Estimate = Short USD.

Anecdote:
The result was WAY OFF the mark and a strong 1st minute move was seen. Profit taking limited the up move and a gradual drop was experienced.
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  • #13
  • Dec 1, 2006 7:34am Dec 1, 2006 7:34am
Dec 1, 2006

Previous: 51.2
Estimate: 52.0
Actual: 49.5
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  • #14
  • Jan 30, 2007 11:16am Jan 30, 2007 11:16am
Jan 3, 2007

Previous: 49.5
Estimate: 51.0
Actual: 51.4
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  • #15
  • Edited 12:20pm Feb 1, 2007 7:31am | Edited 12:20pm
*JAN ISM MANUFACTURING: 49.3 V 51.7E;
PRICES PAID: 53.0 V 47.0E
- New Orders: 50.3 v 52.1 last
- Employment: 49.5 v 49.7 last

**Note: lowest reading on headline number since early 2003

---------------------------------------------------------

*DEC PENDING HOME SALES: 4.9% V 0.9%E
- prior revised to -0.3% from -0.5%

- December's 4.9% climb was the largest since 6.9% in March 2004
- By region, the index showed a 8.1% advance in the Northeast in December from November - and a 4.8% decrease since December 2005. It increased 3.2% in the Midwest - and was down 4.3% in the 12-month span. The South saw a 4.3% rise - and a 4.2% decline in the past year. The index for the West rose by 5.3% - and was 4.9% lower since December 2005


Anecdote:
Though ISM came out very USD Negative, however, Price Paid Index was USD Positive and Pending Home Sales came out extremely USD Positive. Considering a good GDP released yesterday, US is said to be in good recovery/soft landing. USD Short was "short-lived" and rallied.
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  • #16
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:25pm Mar 1, 2007 9:25pm
Mar 1, 2007

Inserted Code
*FEB ISM MANUFACTURING: 52.3 V 50.0E; PRICES PAID: 59.0 V 54.0E
New Orders: 54.9 v 50.3 last
Employment: 51.1 v 49.5 last

                       FEB   JAN    DEC   NOV    OCT   SEP
PMI                    52.3  49.3   51.4  49.5   51.2  52.9
New Orders             54.9  50.3   52.1  48.7   52.1  54.2
Production             54.1  49.6   51.9  48.5   51.9  56.1
Employment             51.1  49.5   49.7  49.2   50.8  49.4
Supplier Deliveries    50.8  52.7   53.4  52.8   50.2  54.1
Inventories            44.6  39.9   48.4  49.7   49.4  46.4
Customer Inventories   53.0  52.0   50.5  50.5   52.0  49.0
Prices                 59.0  53.0   47.5  53.5   47.0  61.0
Backlog of Orders      51.5  43.5   45.0  46.5   44.5  46.5
New Export Orders      54.0  52.5   54.3  56.9   57.8  55.3
Imports                61.5  54.5   55.5  56.5   57.0  56.0
Source: Institute For Supply Management

Note: ISM was very USD Positive; however strong support at 1.9575 kept GBPUSD from moving down on several occassions.
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  • #17
  • Edited Jun 1, 2007 6:26am Apr 2, 2007 6:21am | Edited Jun 1, 2007 6:26am
Apr 2, 2007

Previous: 52.3
Estimate: 51.3
Actual: 50.9
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  • #18
  • Last Post: Jun 1, 2007 6:27am Jun 1, 2007 6:27am
May 1, 2007

Previous: 50.9
Estimate: 51.0
Actual: 54.7
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