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Oil Trades and outlook

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 30, 2008 9:33am Oct 30, 2008 9:33am
This is a new thread aimed at passing on info which I have learned and benefited from together with some of my trades. I would be grateful for feedback - positive or otherwise and we can see how this thread goes, if you like it I will continue.

Todays Support and Resisitance levels

Suppor t : $60.06 (low of 27/10/08)
Resistance: $63.96 (low of 22/10/08)
Suppor t : $59.47 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $63.59 (high of 27/10/08)
Suppor t : $58.46 (low of 09/02/07) Resistance: $62.95 (yesterday’s high)

The Market made new year lows again yesterday as the down trend continues. We are still seeing any bounce being sold in to which is a feature of down trends and although we have fallen over $85 dollars in three months I would advise agains trying to pick the markets bottom and only enter a long position, for anything longer than a day trade, when the technical picture has shown us a signal of the trends reversing.

The short and medium term trends are bearish while the long term trend is sideways.
  • #2
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:35am Oct 30, 2008 10:35am
nice one
  • #3
  • Oct 30, 2008 3:05pm Oct 30, 2008 3:05pm
Quoting musicman007
This is a new thread aimed at passing on info which I have learned and benefited from together with some of my trades. I would be grateful for feedback - positive or otherwise and we can see how this thread goes, if you like it I will continue
Keep it up MusicMan.

1) Do you have any charts you can post?

2) Is it Brent you are trading? My NyMEX Crude Light did not set a new low today, but that is interesting your did, perhaps a trend setter this morning.

3) I would like to know more about your reasoning where this market is heading? (Perhaps this is a series of posts, not just a couple sentences.)

My interest is more as an investor than a day trader. I wish to take multiple entries on long positions, hopefully in the $50's range, as a hedge against USD and (future) inflation concerns.
  • #4
  • Oct 30, 2008 4:22pm Oct 30, 2008 4:22pm
Oil, making a 5 wave move lower in a tiny 1st wave of 5 more down. It is clearly an impulse wave, and will be proven when it drops below wave III at $64.03

A break of the lower wave iv trend line is a good entry point, short. (Marked by the yellow oval at 65.34 right now. Good Trading.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil-oct30.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #5
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:39pm Oct 30, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting FXoffshore
Keep it up MusicMan.

1) Do you have any charts you can post?

2) Is it Brent you are trading? My NyMEX Crude Light did not set a new low today, but that is interesting your did, perhaps a trend setter this morning.

3) I would like to know more about your reasoning where this market is heading? (Perhaps this is a series of posts, not just a couple sentences.)

My interest is more as an investor than a day trader. I wish to take multiple entries on long positions, hopefully in the $50's range, as a hedge against USD and (future) inflation concerns.

I mainly trade Brent only and have done for a few months now. The key trade times for me are at open in the UK 7.15am through to 10am - usually quite a bit of movement in one direction, and also around 3pm to 5.30pm UK time - after that things get a bit too volatile.

I mainly therefore trade from a combination of 1, 5 and 15 min charts with 1 being the trigger and 5 & 15 indicating the current direction.
  • #6
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:48pm Oct 30, 2008 11:48pm
Quoting FXoffshore
Oil, making a 5 wave move lower in a tiny 1st wave of 5 more down. It is clearly an impulse wave, and will be proven when it drops below wave III at $64.03

A break of the lower wave iv trend line is a good entry point, short. (Marked by the yellow oval at 65.34 right now. Good Trading.

Attachment
Just trying to match your charts with mine, what TF are you using and is this WTI instrument ?
  • #7
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:52pm Oct 30, 2008 11:52pm
The Oil market is finding some strength on the back of the stronger global equity markets and buying from speculators who feel t hat this market is now oversold. While it is true that the down trend could afford a decent rally without showing signs of reversing I feel t hat the big picture is dominated by falling demand due to world recession and would expect any rally to be sold into.
  • #8
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:09am Oct 31, 2008 12:09am
Quoting musicman007
Just trying to match your charts with mine, what TF are you using and is this WTI instrument ?
That was a 1 minute bar chart = shrunk down to micro view, for maximum data ticks within proper proportion. I only use it for fine tuning an entry, and in this instance; to determine wave counts. I wanted to see if I could count a 5 or 3 wave pattern coming off the recent run up. Looks like a 5, but want to reserve judgement for when trading picks back up, it is in a sideways consolidation.
  • #9
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:01am Oct 31, 2008 3:01am
As I mentioned yesterday, for the short term rally to continue it needed a convincing break above the 14 day moving average, and it failed to do this. The subsequence was a drop back down below the 9 day moving average and as we have dropped below yesterdays low this morning, a test of the lowest level for this year ($59.02) looks on the cards.

The medium term trend is bearish while the short and long term trends are sideways.

Support : $61.24 (low of 29/10/08) Resistance: $64.35 (9 day moving average)
Support : $59.47 (low of 28/10/08) Resistance: $63.96 (low of 22/10/08)
Support : $59.02 (low of 27/10/08) Resistance: $63.59 (high of 27/10/08)


Summary:
After making the highest level for six trading sessions prices fell back yesterday on the back of a stronger Dollar and falling stock markets. Prices are again lower today as a decision by Japans Central Bank to reduce interest rates failed to find buyers whereas the decision should have been supportive for prices. With the recession biting hard in the US particularly, traders are reluctant to buy fearing that demand will continue to decrease in the world’s biggest energy absorbing country. Eyes will remain on the US Dollar and stock markets today.
  • #10
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:56am Oct 31, 2008 3:56am
I will be away in Mumbai next week w.c mon 3rd Nov so may not get chance to do updates as often - so they may be somewhat sporadic.
  • #11
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:14am Oct 31, 2008 4:14am
Hello friends,

the oil market will be down ward for few months. I cannot see any up trend in it.
  • #12
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:45am Oct 31, 2008 4:45am
Quoting sam111
Hello friends, the oil market will be down ward for few months. I cannot see any up trend in it.
Hi Sam, welcome. Are you trading oil?
  • #13
  • Nov 1, 2008 10:19am Nov 1, 2008 10:19am
Oil Price Target 42 $
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14
  • Nov 1, 2008 3:09pm Nov 1, 2008 3:09pm
Quoting Albertini
Oil Price Target 42 $
Hi Albertini,

Can you tell me more about your forecast for $42?

Suggestion, try log scale when charting 10 years of data that has gone up by more than 10 fold in price. Linear distorts the changes in percent. Also, your trend line will be straight using log, and fibo measurements will make more sense.
  • #15
  • Nov 1, 2008 4:13pm Nov 1, 2008 4:13pm
Quoting FXoffshore
Hi Albertini,

Can you tell me more about your forecast for $42?

Suggestion, try log scale when charting 10 years of data that has gone up by more than 10 fold in price. Linear distorts the changes in percent. Also, your trend line will be straight using log, and fibo measurements will make more sense.
I explained on attached image.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #16
  • Nov 1, 2008 5:03pm Nov 1, 2008 5:03pm
OK, thanks, I see where you are coming from now.

I also use Fibo expansion - it is amazing how accurate (or inconclusive) it can be sometimes), but use top-bottom-1, bottom-top-2, to see where there is confluence. I rely more on wave structure, with ratios as a guide, plus channels and trend lines.

I am expecting the current wave A down is near complete somewhere in the 50's, will figure that out before Monday. Then a wave B will take things higher, but only have wave C set a new low in early 2009.

Stocks and Dollar are playing key roles, oil is following closely.
  • #17
  • Nov 4, 2008 3:50am Nov 4, 2008 3:50am
too many shorts in the market... distorts the correlations a little bit.. for example yesterday, few mins say after Dow Cash open... oil took off.. only to turn and make new lows.... makes for great intraday trading if you can identify whats leading/lagging.....

as for forecasting, depends how you trade but.. that muppet goldman analyst called $150 nearly 2 years before it happened.. and..! .... my pennys worth would say trade the market, leave the analysis for analysts....
  • #18
  • Nov 5, 2008 8:07am Nov 5, 2008 8:07am
Hi to all,

Albertini I see you have a long history of data for oil.
Is it possible to email me some, in any form, since odl and metrader have records only up to feb 2008 when ICE platform started?

Many thanks
  • #19
  • Nov 5, 2008 8:32pm Nov 5, 2008 8:32pm
Hi VS, I have oil back to 1859, but not very interesting until 1998.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oil-1998.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #20
  • Nov 6, 2008 4:21am Nov 6, 2008 4:21am
Quoting vs1972
Hi to all,

Albertini I see you have a long history of data for oil.
Is it possible to email me some, in any form, since odl and metrader have records only up to feb 2008 when ICE platform started?

Many thanks

OIL WEEKLY SINCE 1983
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File Type: zip CL10080.zip   24 KB | 618 downloads
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