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  • #5,081
  • Edited 9:35am Oct 31, 2008 9:16am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Smittens - this is an example of the type of breakout I was talking about. This is the aftermath of the EJ trade I posted earlier before it happened.

Atleast 2 touches on an hourly basis, and when the mark gets broken you usually get a rush of sellers.

The more an area gets built up like this (more touches), the better.
Thanks BRV, that's a great example and definitely a high % trade.

Breakouts are something that I've learned from the ground up by myself, i.e. just something I started trading without any strategies or guides, so it's great to get a small lesson on them. Please don't hesitate to talk more about them if they come across your trading desk!

Edit: Also, kudos on your blog post today. I think I might print this one out, I have to say I've been guilty of falling into a rut so to speak in my trading in the past week. A lot of tunnelvision-- never a good thing.
  • #5,082
  • Oct 31, 2008 9:53am Oct 31, 2008 9:53am
I posted a video about trading breakouts; its in the middle of the homepage:

http://www.nobrainertrades.com

Have fun!
  • #5,083
  • Oct 31, 2008 10:17am Oct 31, 2008 10:17am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I posted a video about trading breakouts; its in the middle of the homepage:
Thanks for the Video, and the comments clearing up the levels. It makes a ton more sense now.

One question (and hopefully you'll forgive me if this is sacrilege) what are your thoughts about looking for areas where S&R line up closely with Fibs? I've been pretty well converted away from other indicators, but that one I'm wanting to hang on to for some reason ... maybe it's like keeping an emergency cigarette after quitting .
  • #5,084
  • Oct 31, 2008 10:47am Oct 31, 2008 10:47am
Quoting jlmac27
I was wondering if any of you have used v-hands?
I have been using a product called Forex Tester for a few weeks. It is much, much better than vHands; much easier to setup, use, etc. Before going to all the effort to set up vHands (it is a real bear for setting up in multiple timeframes mode) I suggest checking out this product. It can be demo'd too, but the demo is pretty limited.

http://www.forextester.com/index.html

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no affiliation with the company that developed, produced or marketed this product.

Also, I don't know what the FF policy is for commenting on a commercial piece of software. And BRV, if you object, please feel free to delete this post.
  • #5,085
  • Edited 11:32am Oct 31, 2008 11:08am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting thewizard
Thanks for the Video, and the comments clearing up the levels. It makes a ton more sense now.

One question (and hopefully you'll forgive me if this is sacrilege) what are your thoughts about looking for areas where S&R line up closely with Fibs? I've been pretty well converted away from other indicators, but that one I'm wanting to hang on to for some reason ... maybe it's like keeping an emergency cigarette after quitting .
Hi thewizard,

I think fibs are great, especially when they line up with S&R-- the more confluence, the better! Fibs, like S&R, project price action, as opposed to your standard indicators (MAs, RSI, etc.) which lag price action. This a good thing.

For the record I include a few MAs & the RSI on my charts, but very rarely utilize either. They have their place, especially knowing that they are used by a lot of traders, but I only look to them in certain circumstances. With the two MAs I use (heh, don't even remember what time periods they are), I basically look for confluence with S&R lines and/or fibs, especially when they haven't been touched in a long time. I've had good success with this. I mainly only look at the RSI when price has made dramatic moves and is approaching S&R; basically looking for oversold/overbought conditions, but still mainly base my trade off of price action.

Edit: Also I'm pretty sure almost every trader in here (including BRV and Ironman) use fibs to some extent. I would definitely hold on to them
  • #5,086
  • Oct 31, 2008 11:13am Oct 31, 2008 11:13am
Might be a good trade if it breaks through 99.03 area?
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  • #5,087
  • Oct 31, 2008 11:24am Oct 31, 2008 11:24am
Quoting seattlerust
I have been using a product called Forex Tester for a few weeks. It is much, much better than vHands; much easier to setup, use, etc. Before going to all the effort to set up vHands (it is a real bear for setting up in multiple timeframes mode) I suggest checking out this product. It can be demo'd too, but the demo is pretty limited.

http://www.forextester.com/index.html

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no affiliation with the company that developed, produced or marketed this product.

Also, I don't know what the FF policy is for commenting on a commercial piece of software. And BRV, if you object, please feel free to delete this post.
thank you,I will check it out.I just got done trying to get v-hands going...I don't kn ow why it isn't working
  • #5,088
  • Oct 31, 2008 11:48am Oct 31, 2008 11:48am
Quoting libb
Might be a good trade if it breaks through 99.03 area?

Hi there Libb,

Pay attention to the equities/equity futures. They will "whisper" to you if the break-out is about to happen or not. Also think of jpy as one of the ultimate risk havens.

If "risk" gets sold, that means that market participants are flocking back to safety, therefore jpy gets bid. If you think, according to your analysis, that the overal bias for the intra-day/week/month would be risk emracing, e.g.: higher yielding instruments could get bid (high-yield currencies, equities) then you clearly would pay close attention to the price action around this key level in your example. Also, dont forget about the impact of round numbers onto the prevailing market psychology, meaning that they are clearly visible to every single trader and that a break thru such a price level might not materialize, unless (and here comes the fundamental part of the puzzle - risk aversion/interest rate cuts rumors/other global-macro events take place).

Now, back to your trade example. I would LOVE this level the be taken out, because of the numerous hits it has taken recently, which according to BRV's thread is bound to give up. Sometimes, though, as BRV has warned, these key price levels might not react the way we percieve them to react, exactly because the current fundamentals behind them are simply not in accordance.

As I am writing this usd/jpy went sout again after another test of the 99.00-99.10 level. Looks like sell orders have been piled up.

I hope this could be of any help to you. It certainly has been to me for the past 4 retests of this price level. Also, fading the 99.10 price level presents you with a nice risk:return setup. SL of 20 pips would not hurt you to try and fade it.

Best of luck to all !
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #5,089
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:02pm Oct 31, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I found this guy's site tonight; ......hes pretty funny in the way he starts off all of his videos but there is a lot of good stuff he throws together.....everything is free and hes well organized....he's all over youtube....thought they might be of help to some people...I admire his ambition here theres a ton of stuff he does.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/

http://www.informedtrades.com/trades.php?page=school


.

I've seen his videos couple months ago , those are really insighfull but it really make me laugh when he say at the beginning OK , SO LETS GET STARTED!!
  • #5,090
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:05pm Oct 31, 2008 12:05pm
Quoting djambazov84
Hi there Libb,

Pay attention to the equities/equity futures. They will \"whisper\" to you if the break-out is about to happen or not. Also think of jpy as one of the ultimate risk havens.

If \"risk\" gets sold, that means that market participants are flocking back to safety, therefore jpy gets bid. If you think, according to your analysis, that the overal bias for the intra-day/week/month would be risk emracing, e.g.: higher yielding instruments could get bid (high-yield currencies, equities) then you clearly would pay close attention to the price action around this key level in your example. Also, dont forget about the impact of round numbers onto the prevailing market [font=Helv][size=2]psychology,...
Nice analysis djambazov. Another thing to keep on your mind, only a few hours left in the trading day, week, and month... would be very surprised to see a huge breakout anywhere. Sometimes it's the little things that can make all the difference.
  • #5,091
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:38pm Oct 31, 2008 1:38pm
Quoting Barak's pip
Hi BRV ,

your insights are surelly are the best I've ever read over my trading career , and as I keep reading your posts I keep getting better as a trader .

I have a few questions :

- you speek in this post on focussing on what can go wrong rather on what can go right , my question concerning this , is how do you balance it , how you are not getting too passimist in a way that you eventually won't take any trade on one hand , and not get too optimmistic so you end up taking any trade?

- you speek a lot on taking only the best trades , I will try answer to my self and correct me if I'm wrong -
*only trade with the trend
*take only trades on the s&r of the larger TF-meanning the most obvious...
HMMMM....don't mean to be ugly here but BRV does not have a crystal ball. Neither he or anyone else can tell you what is going to happen next with 100% assurance in a normal market, much less one as illiquid as this one.
I understand the need to "know" what the market is going to do next as I use to be in the same frame of mind. We are NOT forecasters, we are traders. We analyze probable moves and then try to capitalize when and if the market moves in our favor. There is nothing wrong with trying to get a sense of sentiment, news factors and possible direction, but the best trader I know once told me, "you don't have to know where the market is going to be profitable." My advice, for what it's worth is quit trying to predict the market and place trades that are favorable to giving you profit by only trading around major support and resistance areas in conjuction with fibs and patterns. Focus on "what if I lose" and that will insure you place the proper risk in your trade. I like to think of it this way...expect to win but prepare to lose.

My 2... D....
  • #5,092
  • Nov 1, 2008 2:52am Nov 1, 2008 2:52am
u need to read up news and get to know where market is heading next and then use sr lines to trade, this will increase your chances, news make the market move, big important news surely will affect the market drastically, so it will definitely help alot
  • #5,093
  • Nov 1, 2008 4:47am Nov 1, 2008 4:47am
Hi ya Everyone..

Could anyone please post what the big institutions are using for there main trading decisions with using different instruments and settings as i see on the BRV video links above that in two of the Videos they use mainly the 50 and 200MA's for trading not sure if Exp or Sim?....also I read some where they also use Pivot Points....or basically do they all use a mixture of different things and have no one instrument or chart pattern in common?

thanks in advance,

Adrian
  • #5,094
  • Nov 1, 2008 5:52am Nov 1, 2008 5:52am
hi BRV
In your example or breakout there are sometimes we have even more than 2 hit on the line and it do not breakout. is there any rules to watch and to follow in order to identify that we might be having a breakout at this point
thanks


Quoting BillyRayValentine
Smittens - this is an example of the type of breakout I was talking about. This is the aftermath of the EJ trade I posted earlier before it happened.

Atleast 2 touches on an hourly basis, and when the mark gets broken you usually get a rush of sellers.

The more an area gets built up like this (more touches), the better.
  • #5,095
  • Nov 1, 2008 6:19am Nov 1, 2008 6:19am
Quoting aarangio
Hi ya Everyone..

Could anyone please post what the big institutions are using for there main trading decisions with using different instruments and settings as i see on the BRV video links above that in two of the Videos they use mainly the 50 and 200MA's for trading not sure if Exp or Sim?....also I read some where they also use Pivot Points....or basically do they all use a mixture of different things and have no one instrument or chart pattern in common?

thanks in advance,

Adrian
Hi Adrian,

BRV said that the majority of them use mainly what we use - S&R, fibs and trendlines. You will find here and there some MA's, MACD's, Stochastichs and other stuff, but the more "individual" your chart analysis is, the further away you are from what the rest of the world is seeing. You want to be on the same page as everyone else is.

I know a guy who is the head of the trading department in one of our banks and I was in his office not too long ago. He uses nothing else but Bloomberg Anywhere (which is a €2000/month subscription service) and some basic charts, consisting of S&R, fibs and trendlines. That only confirms what BRV is saying. Btw, I was really surprised to find out, that his fancy BB service offers NOTHING more compared to what we can find on the internet for FREE. He has all his data available in one place, while we need to use a couple of sources for free. The only "advantage" they have over us are the "rumors" that are spread between the banks (where what is heading) and even those aren't correct all the time.

Just stick to the obvious and you have nothing to worry about. Btw, BRV also pointed out a very nice source for us - GFT Forex - which tells us the regular people what the rumors are.
  • #5,096
  • Nov 1, 2008 7:23am Nov 1, 2008 7:23am
Quoting hendrix
Hi Adrian,

BRV said that the majority of them use mainly what we use - S&R, fibs and trendlines. You will find here and there some MA's, MACD's, Stochastichs and other stuff, but the more \"individual\" your chart analysis is, the further away you are from what the rest of the world is seeing. You want to be on the same page as everyone else is.

I know a guy who is the head of the trading department in one of our banks and I was in his office not too long ago. He uses nothing else but Bloomberg Anywhere (which is a €2000/month subscription service) and some basic charts, consisting of S&R, fibs and trendlines. That only confirms...
Hi ya Hendrix,

Thank you muchly for your time and in depth explaination and help on this, much appreciated ..

Just starting to finally get the hang of these Fib's now after looking at some vid's which I'm well happy about..

Adrian
  • #5,097
  • Nov 1, 2008 7:41am Nov 1, 2008 7:41am
Absolutely wonderful thread. But I have one doubt.
before september the markets used to move slowly by 5-10 pips per 5 minutes. But nowadays ( October 1st onwards) the markets move by 20 - 45 pips per 5 minutes. !! the price fluctuates like hell !!

What is ur advice on making entries and using stop losses in such a scenario where the price fluctuates by huge pips?
  • #5,098
  • Nov 1, 2008 12:34pm Nov 1, 2008 12:34pm
Quoting avi007i
Absolutely wonderful thread. But I have one doubt.
before september the markets used to move slowly by 5-10 pips per 5 minutes. But nowadays ( October 1st onwards) the markets move by 20 - 45 pips per 5 minutes. !! the price fluctuates like hell !!

What is ur advice on making entries and using stop losses in such a scenario where the price fluctuates by huge pips?
Hi Avi007,

that is something we talked a lot about lately. You should go only couple of pages back and it's all there.

I went back to using a 40 pip-by-pip trailing stop loss and I just love it. But you should read other options / opinions as well.
  • #5,099
  • Nov 1, 2008 1:27pm Nov 1, 2008 1:27pm
Quoting hendrix
Hi Avi007,

that is something we talked a lot about lately. You should go only couple of pages back and it's all there.

I went back to using a 40 pip-by-pip trailing stop loss and I just love it. But you should read other options / opinions as well.
Hi ya Hendrix..

Is this 40 pip trailing stop working really well then??....have you tried placing a stop at the bottom of the bar before or second bar before if going long??..

I was just wondering on your post earlier nothing was mentioned of Pivot Points and i'm sure I read it some where else before that the big institutions use them..would you know if this was mentioned before by someone that they do use them a lot?..

Thanx once again Hendrix if you can help on any of this..

Adrian
  • #5,100
  • Edited 3:48pm Nov 1, 2008 3:26pm | Edited 3:48pm
nice video BRV ...


how do you decide where to put the stoploss and take proffit points on a break out trade?

like in the case on the chart attached , usd\jpy is trapped between 2 levels and breakout can be to both ways , where would you choose to locate you sl and tp in case of breakout to the north\south ?

thanks,
Barak
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