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  • #5,061
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:45pm Oct 30, 2008 10:45pm
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  • #5,062
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:16am Oct 31, 2008 12:16am
I tried to play a breakout on the UJ around 97.80, got burned really quickly!

In two minutes the UJ dropped ~80 pips triggering my entry, before immediately turning around and going 80 pips in the opposite direction in the next 5 minutes.

Chock another one up for the market movers :o
  • #5,063
  • Edited 2:56am Oct 31, 2008 12:26am | Edited 2:56am
BRV,
Keep up pumping us with your information and insights. Unlike gold, for me it is only valued UP.
Going through forex for sometime now, I was trying to find a reasoned way of thinking to trade, keeping as far away as possible from "holy grail" methods. I appreciate the way people here think, with logic and respect to the market and themselves.

To the other contributors and senior members here, you are as important as BVR, giving us the other colors shades of the thinking "light".

The biggest problem for me after "method" is "me" or "I".
Great traders, professionals of all sorts, reduces the "me" to a minimum, looking at the charts from the charts point of view, in a way.

Regarding money management,
As was posted here many times before, we need to open trades that can be half closed on the way to profit.
Does any one has a script for Meta-Trader to open simultaneously 2 identical trades? this will be very helpful.


Thanks in advance
  • #5,064
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:27am Oct 31, 2008 12:27am
Quoting smittens4212
I tried to play a breakout on the UJ around 97.80, got burned really quickly!

In two minutes the UJ dropped ~80 pips triggering my entry, before immediately turning around and going 80 pips in the opposite direction in the next 5 minutes.

Chock another one up for the market movers :o
OOhhhh....yeah you gotta wait for a solid base to build up...thats the next topic of discussion on the agenda.

Basically, the more a level gets hit, the stronger the breakout. I only take breakouts if a level has been tested on a 1 hr atleast 2 times, and clearly cuts below it. 5 min and 15 min breakouts work sometimes but are harder to call and also breakouts on 1 hr charts tend to move a lot faster and stronger.
  • #5,065
  • Oct 31, 2008 12:50am Oct 31, 2008 12:50am
Here's some more stuff for today - happy Friday! By the way, end of the month today be careful out there!

====================================

Its easy to forget what makes us money sometimes. Profitable traders, and non profitable traders alike, go through phases where they oftentimes forget what it was they did when they were making money.

We get into grooves, and start to get comfortable in our routines. The level of comfort, though instantly gratifying, can cause us to turn our winning streaks right around into much worse, devastating losing streaks.

As traders, we have to stay on our toes. We can’t afford to let our levels of comfort get the better of us, as one bad trade managed improperly could potentially wipe out all of our hard work and efforts. Every trade counts, and every trade needs to be carefully assessed. The ones we let go are the ones that lead us into disaster.

In trading, the glass should be half empty

Before I take a trade, I will ask myself a series of questions. The biggest ones are listed below, and going though this general checklist has allowed me to maintain consistency and run a profitable business. I take these questions very seriously and pay attention to each and every one of them; one mistake could lead me down a road I never wanted or intended to take. Whether it be my own personal money I am managing or that of others, a trade is a trade, and money is on the line that will affect my well-being.

Some questions I ask myself before hitting ‘buy’ or ‘sell’:

  1. Is the trade in line with the fundamental/technical trend?
  2. Are ALL of my conditions for entering the trade being met?
  3. If I am fading a level, is momentum too strong/price leading up to it too steep? Should I look to buy a breakout of the level instead?
  4. Is the setup clear and definable to the majority of traders across the world?
  5. Am I taking this trade because its clearly a high probability trade / the best of the best?
  6. I’m not taking this trade based on a “hunch”, am I?
  7. Am I taking this trade because I am bored, anxious, or haven’t taken any other trades all day and are “forcing” the trade?
  8. Am I taking this trade only because it looks to be simply “oversold” or “overbought”?
  9. How is my confidence level on this trade? Am I overly worried about taking it?
  10. What am I going to do if the trade goes against me? Am I going to reverse the postion and buy a breakout/fade it or just take the loss?
  11. Do I have a clearly defined profit target?
  12. Do I know how much I am willing to risk on the trade?
  13. Does my risk:reward ratio work out in line with my long-term money management plan?

As a personal trader, it is easy to get comfortable in your own familiar environment and forget about the actual undesirable consequences of what it is you are doing. Like any business, there is risk involved, and trading should be treated as a business, and nothing less. Focusing on the upside is a VERY easy thing to do; focusing on the downside is sometimes not. By shifting mentality and looking more so at the potential downside of things, most people tend to scale down position size, more objectively assess their trades, cut obvious losers very quickly, etc.

This optimism gets the better of most people, and it hurts them terribly. I’m not suggesting walking around with a frown on your face, but rather shifting your focus from potential upside to potential downside when it comes to taking trades. Pessimism in trading is not necessarily a bad thing, because it raises questions, doubts, etc, and therefore cuts out the number of losing actions you take. It makes you more carefully analyze the situations you find yourself in, and therefore make better judgment calls to achieve profitable outcomes.

Focusing on what can go wrong rather than what can go right has saved and made me a lot of money over time. Doing a simple check of relevant factors before taking your trades can free up a lot of time in the long run making up for and worrying about past mistakes, and maintain a solid winning streak.

I am asked quite frequently what it is that helps my performance more than anything else. If I had to boil it down to one thing, it’s that I wait. I simply won’t trade unless I cover all my points above and take only the best opportunities that come my way, and fit my criteria. But in order to do that, I need to ask myself a series of questions that allow me to make the judgment call to either jump in or stay out.

Worry, in this sense, is certainly not a bad thing.

  • #5,066
  • Oct 31, 2008 2:08am Oct 31, 2008 2:08am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I found this guy's site tonight; ......hes pretty funny in the way he starts off all of his videos but there is a lot of good stuff he throws together.....everything is free and hes well organized....he's all over youtube....thought they might be of help to some people...I admire his ambition here theres a ton of stuff he does.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/

http://www.informedtrades.com/trades.php?page=school


.
Hi ya BRV,

Thanx muchly for the excellent Video link sites above
Makes live easier I feel to see something visually explained rather than the written word at times..

Great stuff!

Adrian
  • #5,067
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:02am Oct 31, 2008 3:02am
Quoting Barak's pip
what we have here is a strange situation - on one hand the wall st. indices closed on the green side on the other hand the gold and the oil keeps falling - the result is that the dolar not moving , from the fibonacci point of view both ways north and south would be logic , what I see from my chart is that price touched that 50 fib level and reversed , and now it's trupped between 2 r&s .. I hope that a break of one of the 2 will give the way .

I'm attaching a eur\usd chart I'll be glad if someone will compare with me the s&r ..

thanks
It's this kind of stuff happening that is also why I asked about the US election. Today is a Friday, it's the end of a month, there have been some interesting statements from central bankers recently, oil production is supposedly to be cut. And there's also an election looming that affects the world more than any other election. Billy Ray tells us to look out for end-points, i.e. Fridays, ends of months, option expiries. Well, the US election (result) marks one big end/start point.

I guess as no-one replied to my post about the election the more experienced traders feel the election is irrelevant. If that's the case please let me know, but my feeling at the moment is that I should treat next Tuesday/Wednesday with caution (as levels could get blown away) just because of the election. Is that right or am I off the planet? Thanks for any opinions on this.
  • #5,068
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:53am Oct 31, 2008 3:53am
When plotting support and resistance lines I read a post by Soultrader that its best to do it with a line chart as opposed to a bar or candle chart. What do you think Mr BVR?

cheerio
  • #5,069
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:53am Oct 31, 2008 3:53am
Smittens - this is an example of the type of breakout I was talking about. This is the aftermath of the EJ trade I posted earlier before it happened.

Atleast 2 touches on an hourly basis, and when the mark gets broken you usually get a rush of sellers.

The more an area gets built up like this (more touches), the better.
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  • #5,070
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:02am Oct 31, 2008 4:02am
Quoting MarineUK
When plotting support and resistance lines I read a post by Soultrader that its best to do it with a line chart as opposed to a bar or candle chart. What do you think Mr BVR?

cheerio
Hi there, I always use bars.......candles will work fine as well just make sure you include the entire candle not just the body. I understand that line charts might at first make it seem easier but its somewhat of a shortcut and unfortunately not a good way to determine a lot of points that are necessary to know about. Line charts mask a lot of price action.
  • #5,071
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:53am Oct 31, 2008 4:53am
Hi BRV,
regarding stop loss / take profit management of trades I personally started now with the following setup... I split my risk capital of the position I enter into 3 different trades as follows

Initial SL for all 3 positions: ~40 pips
Target Trade 1 (30% of risk): ~35 pips
- when reaching the target of Trade 1 I close this trade
- in addition I change the stop loss of Trade 2+3 to ~ 14 pips
- this way I have profit/loss of zero if the trade goes against me but still
leave room for the other 2 trades to develop
Target Trade 2 (40% of risk): ~90 pips
- when reaching the target of Trade 2 I close this trade
- in addition I change the stop loss of Trade 3 to break even making it
a free ride
Target Trade 3 (30% of risk) ~230 pips
- free ride... either we get huge profit or trade is closed at break even

Would be great to have your opinion on this approach. Because of the historical data you have on your own trades... do you have any suggestions/improvements/ideas in combination with your style of trading?

The reason why I am asking is that even it took me a long time I slowly start to believe that trading entries are very important - but the real difference between losing and winning is the trade management thereafter... and maybe you can help me one step further in this progress. Thanks a lot.
  • #5,072
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:55am Oct 31, 2008 4:55am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Smittens - this is an example of the type of breakout I was talking about. This is the aftermath of the EJ trade I posted earlier before it happened.

Atleast 2 touches on an hourly basis, and when the mark gets broken you usually get a rush of sellers.

The more an area gets built up like this (more touches), the better.
Good morning mate. How you doing today? Looks like theres a potential sell from the previous support @ around 124.80 if the price gets there. Whats your point of view on this one?
  • #5,073
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:30am Oct 31, 2008 5:30am
Quoting BillyRayValentine
Here's some more stuff for today - happy Friday! By the way, end of the month today be careful out there!

====================================

Its easy to forget what makes us money sometimes. Profitable traders, and non profitable traders alike, go through phases where they oftentimes forget what it was they did when they were making money.

We get into grooves, and start to get comfortable in our routines. The level of comfort, though instantly gratifying, can cause us to turn our winning streaks right around into much worse, devastating losing streaks.

As traders, we have to stay on our toes. We can’t afford to let our levels of comfort get the better of us, as one bad trade managed...
Hi BRV ,

your insights are surelly are the best I've ever read over my trading career , and as I keep reading your posts I keep getting better as a trader .

I have a few questions :

- you speek in this post on focussing on what can go wrong rather on what can go right , my question concerning this , is how do you balance it , how you are not getting too passimist in a way that you eventually won't take any trade on one hand , and not get too optimmistic so you end up taking any trade?

- you speek a lot on taking only the best trades , I will try answer to my self and correct me if I'm wrong -
*only trade with the trend
*take only trades on the s&r of the larger TF-meanning the most obvious ones ?

my last questions for now , where do you think the dollar pairs are going in the next few hours days? reverssing or continuing the original move , the technical analissys and the fundamental analissys are against each other right now ..

thanks

thanks
  • #5,074
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:34am Oct 31, 2008 5:34am
how do you gauge the momentum BRV, what indicators you use for that ? thanks.
  • #5,075
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:40am Oct 31, 2008 5:40am
I was wondering if any of you have used v-hands?It is a program you use with metatrader that lets you watch past data(price action) at different speeds and at any time frame you choose.I think this could really help to get a feel when price will bounce or follow threw S&R.Just do a search here on the forum for v-hands to find a place to download.Hope this helps.
  • #5,076
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:50am Oct 31, 2008 5:50am
Quoting jlmac27
I was wondering if any of you have used v-hands?It is a program you use with metatrader that lets you watch past data(price action) at different speeds and at any time frame you choose.I think this could really help to get a feel when price will bounce or follow threw S&R.Just do a search here on the forum for v-hands to find a place to download.Hope this helps.
Yes. I did countless hours with vhands and forextester when i was starting. Theres a complete thread to seting up vhands and how to use it on ff somewhere if i remmember right. Great tool that helped me in this journey.
  • #5,077
  • Oct 31, 2008 7:06am Oct 31, 2008 7:06am
Quoting belekas
Yes. I did countless hours with vhands and forextester when i was starting. Theres a complete thread to seting up vhands and how to use it on ff somewhere if i remmember right. Great tool that helped me in this journey.
Heres the thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849
Time hides Nothing
  • #5,078
  • Oct 31, 2008 7:06am Oct 31, 2008 7:06am
Quoting belekas
Yes. I did countless hours with vhands and forextester when i was starting. Theres a complete thread to seting up vhands and how to use it on ff somewhere if i remmember right. Great tool that helped me in this journey.
I played around with it for a very short time when going threw skunnys thread.I think it would be helpful,so any one who wants to check it out here it is
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  • #5,079
  • Oct 31, 2008 7:08am Oct 31, 2008 7:08am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Heres the thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849
hahaha you beat me to it!
  • #5,080
  • Oct 31, 2008 8:50am Oct 31, 2008 8:50am
I know Fridays aren't the best, but do you guys see any trades lining up for today?
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