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  • #5,041
  • Oct 30, 2008 2:21pm Oct 30, 2008 2:21pm
I'm not sure what I'm doing wrong here... I think that I've read to take 1/2 the position out at 20 pips profit or two and set my stop at breakeven. It seems that most of the time that I do this I end up with a total of 20 pips profit. It almost seems as if the market knows that I took a little off the table and set a stop there, comes back to hit my stop and then goes back off like gangbusters in the direction I had been hoping.

I know that it is bad to chase a trade, and have been resisting the urge to do so, but I'm ending up with a lot of +20 pip trades that should have been much higher.

Any thoughts on what I need to tweak?
  • #5,042
  • Oct 30, 2008 2:50pm Oct 30, 2008 2:50pm
Hi Wiz,

There are numerous ways to manage trades and moving to break even after taking half ot the lots off is one. But, there are also a couple of ways to look at break even. Consider this as a possible tweak:

Assume that you are in a trade with 4 mini lots, initial stop of 40 PIPs, and you are up 20 PIPs. So you take a profit on two lots for $40. Now, look at break even as a zero loss AND a zero gain. Net zero. Thus, after taking your 20 PIP gain, move your stop from 40 PIPs to 20 PIPs. Now, if you get stopped out, you take a 2 lot loss against your 2 lot gain and there is no loss, no foul. This now gives you 20 PIPs more wiggle room and you may be able to wait out the eventual move to higher profits that you say you are leaving on the table.

Hope this helps.
  • #5,043
  • Oct 30, 2008 3:13pm Oct 30, 2008 3:13pm
Quoting seattlerust
Consider this as a possible tweak:

Assume that you are in a trade with 4 mini lots, initial stop of 40 PIPs, and you are up 20 PIPs. So you take a profit on two lots for $40. Now, look at break even as a zero loss AND a zero gain. Net zero. Thus, after taking your 20 PIP gain, move your stop from 40 PIPs to 20 PIPs. Now, if you get stopped out, you take a 2 lot loss against your 2 lot gain and there is no loss, no foul. This now gives you 20 PIPs more wiggle room and you may be able to wait out the eventual move to higher profits that you say you are leaving on the table.
Thanks! That sounds pretty reasonable. If after being profitable 20 pips or so it swings 40 pips against me I'd end up pretty anxious on the trade anyways and getting out at 0 gain would be fine since it gives me room to make the other 100+ pips on the trades that are needing that extra wiggle room. I just looked at my trade log for this week and that tweak would have made a huge difference... would have gotten stopped out of 3 trades at 0 profit that I had 20 pips on half the position, but also converted 3 trades from 20 pips on half the positions to 150+ pips and 1 to about 200 pips.
  • #5,044
  • Oct 30, 2008 3:55pm Oct 30, 2008 3:55pm
what we have here is a strange situation - on one hand the wall st. indices closed on the green side on the other hand the gold and the oil keeps falling - the result is that the dolar not moving , from the fibonacci point of view both ways north and south would be logic , what I see from my chart is that price touched that 50 fib level and reversed , and now it's trupped between 2 r&s .. I hope that a break of one of the 2 will give the way .

I'm attaching a eur\usd chart I'll be glad if someone will compare with me the s&r ..

thanks
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  • #5,045
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:21pm Oct 30, 2008 5:21pm
Quoting Barak's pip
what we have here is a strange situation - on one hand the wall st. indices closed on the green side on the other hand the gold and the oil keeps falling - the result is that the dolar not moving , from the fibonacci point of view both ways north and south would be logic , what I see from my chart is that price touched that 50 fib level and reversed , and now it's trupped between 2 r&s .. I hope that a break of one of the 2 will give the way .

I'm attaching a eur\usd chart I'll be glad if someone will compare with me the s&r ..

thanks
Don't have access to my charts right now, but the dollar has seen a lot of action lately. It would not be uncommon for it to consolidate for a while, especially as we enter the weekend soon. Just a thought.
  • #5,046
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:28pm Oct 30, 2008 5:28pm
Quoting Barak's pip
what we have here is a strange situation - on one hand the wall st. indices closed on the green side on the other hand the gold and the oil keeps falling - the result is that the dolar not moving , from the fibonacci point of view both ways north and south would be logic , what I see from my chart is that price touched that 50 fib level and reversed , and now it's trupped between 2 r&s .. I hope that a break of one of the 2 will give the way .

I'm attaching a eur\usd chart I'll be glad if someone will compare with me the s&r ..

thanks
usd/chf,The weekly 50% fib is within 10 pips of your hourly fib.Also good S&R right with the both of them....Maybe another bounce?
  • #5,047
  • Oct 30, 2008 5:48pm Oct 30, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting jlmac27
usd/chf,The weekly 50% fib is within 10 pips of your hourly fib.Also good S&R right with the both of them....Maybe another bounce?


Heres a pic.
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  • #5,048
  • Edited 9:49pm Oct 30, 2008 9:32pm | Edited 9:49pm
Quoting shadowman
i reviewed through all the lines he posted in the blogs, more than 50% of the lines are failed lines, but i still don't get it why people are still inside here praising the lines???
Hey there,

Couple things, this post stuck out to me for obvious reasons. These aren't "set and forget" "trading signals" when it comes to the intraday stuff. Quite the contrary. I stress over and over again that there is no "set and forget" in trading, and anyone that tells you otherwise is on a quick path to devastating some accounts. "Set and forget" is a term that has unfortunately been embedded in this business by a slew of cheap advertisers trying to get your money because they can't make it on their own. You'll obvioulsy never hear a serious money manger using this term. Its a misunderstanding of what they are. My mistake is that I'm writing "buys" and "sells" when actually they should read "key levels above the current rate" or "key levels below the current rate". People that are familiar with this work and have read everything we have to say understand that these levels dont work like this.

Shadowman I noticed you are brand new to FF and I'm going to ignore your other comments (please be a little more open here) but I would recommend reading through materials posted throughout this thread in order to better understand how we trade here......please use the posts in the first post as a starting point....lots of stuff here. But regardless its important that newer people such as yourself understand a little more about how it works so on that level I'll try to make things more user friendly.

These are basically my notes, my scratchpad, that I use before the session. I'll mark up these key areas in order to determine if we're going to get a bounce, or if price is going to follow through.

I guage momentum at the time of the level being hit to see if I want to fade it, or go long, sometimes I will sell right into them. No set and forget. Nothing works like that. I know the bigger levels I post here seem like "set and forget" but I have cancelled many trades now if I dont like how price is acting at the time. "Set and forget" seems like an easy way out, something which is far from true in trading....its like falling into the same old "make a million trading in forex trap". Its junk.

Good results dont have to be painstaking, as many people have been showing me. I get a ton of positive feedback and thats what really keeps me going. I try to present pretty much everything here in order to make it all as simple as possible. I'm going to make a new post to clarify my notes and hopefully it will be a good guide as to what they are.

But the bottom line I try to teach here is that people look for an easy 1-2-3 way into heavy profits, and I will always find that despite everything else, it is extremely difficult to get the idea across that this is false sometimes. I'm trying to say that it doesn't work like this, its a process, and much of the stuff I might write before the session gets changed throughout based on new information.

Set and forget doesn't exist. Please abolish that from your terminology is my one piece of advice. I write these notes daily for myself, so I thought it might help to post to others....but I'll def change the format, I dont want anyone to think its all that simple, then I fall into the category of other shameful people in this business which, heaven help me, I'm certainly not.

Like I say I try to make it all as easy as possible here....I think the best traders I have seen in this thread are very conceptual, do a lot of critical thinking about their own analysis and that of others. They work hard for themselves. Its a process, but one which is is well worth it in the end if you put in the effort.
  • #5,049
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:41pm Oct 30, 2008 9:41pm
Quoting thewizard
When I read the daily post today from BRV he lists potential SR areas that are buys and some are sells. You say to trade the SR only in the direction of the day's trend. So if for instance there is a SR area that 1.3000 on EU that was listed as a buy and the day has been trending down, I should look at the level, but for a sell rather than buy?

I'm also confused with the daily levels because I usually can see those levels (and often pick some of them out myself before reading the post), but not sure, BRV, how you decide some are buy levels and some are sell levels.

Hi wizard, like I say yes I mean they are not ncessarily buys or sells just key levels. Im going to change that. Yes, in many cases like the one today, after the 40-off pip bounce, selling into it wouldnt have been a bad choice at all.
  • #5,050
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:50pm Oct 30, 2008 9:50pm
Quoting copi88
Thanks for the warning Shadowman. Clearly you are great trader and you have proven your methods over a long period of time.

Curse you BRV for helping me make 16 straight winning trades. I am leaving this thread.

pffffft

hahaha thanks. I'm glad to know I'm well supported here.
  • #5,051
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:53pm Oct 30, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting smittens4212
What are you, 12? Go away.
Every once and a while they come around . Its inevitable.
  • #5,052
  • Oct 30, 2008 9:58pm Oct 30, 2008 9:58pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine

Set and forget doesn't exist. Please abolish that from your terminology is my one piece of advice. I write these notes daily for myself, so I thought it might help to post to others....but I'll def change the format
I hope you don't change the notes too much. I appreciate them.
  • #5,053
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:00pm Oct 30, 2008 10:00pm
Quoting Barak's pip
what we have here is a strange situation - on one hand the wall st. indices closed on the green side on the other hand the gold and the oil keeps falling - the result is that the dolar not moving , from the fibonacci point of view both ways north and south would be logic , what I see from my chart is that price touched that 50 fib level and reversed , and now it's trupped between 2 r&s .. I hope that a break of one of the 2 will give the way .

I'm attaching a eur\usd chart I'll be glad if someone will compare with me the s&r ..

thanks
It was a bit of a weird day today compared to what we've been used to. We had some mixed correlations that were off a little more than norm; but overall if you look at the bigger picture its all pretty much in line.

I think its just that price is so damn volatile due to the lack of liquidity out there these little moves get magnified tenfold (not that I'm complaining....its been fun lately ). We're consolidating now and yeah, breakouts should be decent. We're on the third day now of equity market upcloses so we could get more pressure to the downside possibly....just my ramblings....just do what those bars tell you to do.
  • #5,054
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:01pm Oct 30, 2008 10:01pm
Quoting libb
I hope you don't change the notes too much. I appreciate them.
No I wont; this guy is one in a million I realize this. Just going to make it a little more user friendly.

I realized a long time ago that there is no way I will ever make everyone happy.
  • #5,055
  • Edited 10:24pm Oct 30, 2008 10:13pm | Edited 10:24pm
I found this guy's site tonight; ......hes pretty funny in the way he starts off all of his videos but there is a lot of good stuff he throws together.....everything is free and hes well organized....he's all over youtube....thought they might be of help to some people...I admire his ambition here theres a ton of stuff he does.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/

http://www.informedtrades.com/trades.php?page=school


.
  • #5,056
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:28pm Oct 30, 2008 10:28pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
I found this guy's site tonight; ......hes pretty funny in the way he starts off all of his videos but there is a lot of good stuff he throws together.....everything is free and hes well organized....he's all over youtube....thought they might be of help to some people...I admire his ambition here theres a ton of stuff he does.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f112/

http://www.informedtrades.com/trades.php?page=school


.

Wow...so you mean shadowman put together that site?
  • #5,057
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:29pm Oct 30, 2008 10:29pm
Quoting libb
Wow...so you mean shadowman put together that site?


haha! No this is just some random dude.....not talking about our buddy shadow here .
  • #5,058
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:32pm Oct 30, 2008 10:32pm
Quoting BillyRayValentine
haha! No this is just some random dude.....not talking about our buddy shadow here .

haha thats what I thought, just checking


Do you normally update your blog on Friday mornings?
  • #5,059
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:38pm Oct 30, 2008 10:38pm
Quoting Sanook
I can definitely see the levels, but my problem stems from the fundamental trading I'm used to. Using 40 point stops is something completely new to me. I won't say what my fundamental stops used to be, as people will probably call me a lunatic!!! But it worked...eventually...as long as you had the bias correct.

Using this method, to me it seems like an incredible gamble to expect price to bounce from a level. What about the level below, or the level below that? So then maybe place the stop below the next level, but then again, if you have a fundamental bias, then why not just place it two levels below?

If I start to do this, then I'm basically trading fundamentals again, and not following...

Hi there again, my best advice would to be that if you see a level getting beaten down, just "listen" to the current price action.....you need not wait until your stop gets hit and in most cases, especially for intraday trades, it just pays to go with the flow as birdt pointed out earlier.

This post goes into it a little bit more:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1615

.
  • #5,060
  • Oct 30, 2008 10:41pm Oct 30, 2008 10:41pm
Quoting birdt
I certainly did not mean to confuse anyone. I'm saying stay with the flow if you don't have the confidence to trade counter-trend yet. If there is a clear daily direction and a strong trend, instead of looking for it to end, you may be better off looking for opportunities to get into the trend from support/resistance. The last few weeks have seen some really violent trends that have ripped through the areas that we might have expected to hold price up. When you go with the flow you can wait for more price action confirmation, hold on for more profits, risk more etc..

PeterCrowns sums it up beautifully:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=23

There...
Good point again birdt and I like the link you posted here....some basic truths. This market in particular has been great for breakouts lately;. Different conditions, different protocol.
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